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CFTC Commitments of traders: JPY shorts increase to largest level since early December

Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 47K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP long 25K vs 31K long last week. Longs increased by 6K
  • JPY short 45K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 14k
  • CHF 1.5K vs flat last week. Longs increased by 1.5K
  • AUD short 19k vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • NZD long 1.8K vs square last week. Longs increased by 1.8K
  • CAD long 38k vs 33K long last week. Longs increased by 5K

Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

European shares rebound to end the week

German Dax up 1.3%.  France’s CAC, up 0.8%.  UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%

The major European indices are ending the day higher.  For the week all but the German Dax fell.
A look at the provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.3%
  • France’s CAC, +0.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0%

For the week, all but the German Dax are ending lower.  Provisional changes are showing

  • German DAX +0.32%
  • France’s CAC -1.34%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex -1.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.82%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is trading up $9.80 or 0.64% at $1572.90
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.43 or -2.57% at $54.16
US stocks have tilted back to the downside as a US Sen. tells of the 3rd case of the coronavirus in the US.  Weekend fear is being elevated:
  • S&P index -15.78 points or -0.46% at 3309.78
  • NASDAQ index -24.97 points or -0.26% at 9377.62
  • Dow -87 points or -0.29% at 29073.83

European shares end the day lower

German DAX, -0.66%. UK’s FTSE, -0.68%

the major European stock indices are ending the day with declines. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.66%
  • France’s CAC, -0.79%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.68%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.74%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.06%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, -0.62%
In the European debt market, yields moved sharply higher with the UK 10 year benchmark note leading the way with a rise of 11 basis points.
German DAX, -0.66%. UK's FTSE, -0.68%_In other markets as European traders exit:
  • Spot gold is higher by $5.60 or 0.37% at $1516.18. It is trading at the highs for the day with the low down at $1510.86
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.17 at $61.54, after failing to hold above the $62 level. The high price for the day reach $62.34
The US stocks are trading lower on the day led by declines in the NASDAQ index
  • S&P index -14 points or -0.44% at 3226
  • NASDAQ -51.18 points or -0.57% at 8955.82
  • Dow -129 points or -0.45% at 28514

US yields are also higher with the yield curve steepening. The 2 – 10 year spread has widened out to 34.28 basis points from 29.4 basis points on Friday.

US yields are higher

European shares are beaten down. German DAX falls -2.5%. France’s CAC -2.9%

Ouch.  European shares take a beating.

The European major indices are closed and the provisional closes are not looking good. The major indices are all beaten down by 2%-3%  declines.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -2.5%
  • France’s CAC, -2.9%
  • UK’s FTSE, -3.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.8%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session higher, but off the highest levels of the day.  Below is a snapshot of the current yields, changes and high low yields.
Ouch.  European shares take a beating.
US stocks are also down sharply and trading near lows.
  • S&P index, -1.91%
  • NASDAQ index, -1.75%
  • Dow industrial average, -2.0%

In other markets:

  • spot gold is surging and back above the $1500 level. The price is up $22.34 or 1.51% at $1501.50.
  • WTI crude oil futures is trading down $1.35 on expectations of slower growth. That is down 2.5% at $52.28. The inventory data showed a higher build then expectations today
In the forex, the JPY remains the strongest currency on flight to the relative safety of the JPY. The CAD has taken over as the weakest.  The USDCAD is now trading back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3288.

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K

There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.

CFTC commitment of traders: GBP shorts trimmed modestly. JPY longs increased.

Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending August 13, 2019

  • EUR short 47K vs 44K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • GBP short 96K vs 102K short last week. Shorts decreased by 6K
  • JPY long 25K vs 11K short last week. Longs increased by 14K
  • CHF short 13k vs 16k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • AUD short 63k vs 55k short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD short 13K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • CAD long 14K vs 24K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 10K

Highlights:

  • JPY and CAD remain long, while the other major currencies maintain short position
  • The JPY longs increased by 14K. That is the largest long position since November 2016 (see chart below).
  • CAD longs were trimmed by 10K.
  • GBP shorts were trimmed modestly in the current week to 96K but the position remains the largest speculative position. The GBP moved modestly higher in the week.

JPY longs are the largest since November 2016

CFTC Commitment of Traders: Positions are marginally changed

Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

  • EUR short 39K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • GBP short 79K vs 76K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
  • JPY short 9K vs 11K short last week. Short trimmed by 2K
  • CHF short 13k vs 12k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 48 k vs 53k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • NZD short 12K vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • CAD long 31K vs 21K long last week.  Longs increased by 10K
  • Prior week

Highlights:

  • GBP shorts remain as the largest position. The GBPUSD moved to new 27 month lows today rewarding those traders.
  • AUD shorts are the 2nd largest position and the AUD moved to new month lows today retracing the run higher from the June 10 low
  • The EUR shorts increased by 8K. The EURUSD moved modestly lower this week. The EUR short has been cut from over -100K short to 31K (the fall in short positions seems to have slowed over the last month.
  • Speculators remain long the CAD. It is the only major foreign-currency long position versus the US dollar

Forex futures positioning data among noncommercial traders for the week ending July 23, 2019

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Loonie shorts rush to the exits

Forex futures positioning data among non-commercial traders for the week ending June 25, 2019:

  • EUR short 56K vs 52K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • GBP short 59K vs 53K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • JPY short 10K vs 17K short last week. Short trimmed by 7K
  • CHF short 16k vs 15k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 66k vs 65k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • NZD short 24K vs 24K short last week. Shorts unchanged
  • CAD short 15K vs 38K short last week.  Shorts decreased by 23K
That’s the second week in a row of GBP selling as the market sours on whatever might come from the Conservative change in leadership.
There was a big flight out of euro shorts a week ago but some waded back in this week. In the yen, however, they continued to get out of shorts, even with USD/JPY rebounding (although that came later in the week).
The big move was in the Canadian dollar where all the good news on Canadian data finally sank in and the shorts got out. That shift put the net at the narrowest since late December. I expect we will see more of the same when next week’s numbers are released.

Forex futures positioning data among non-commercial traders for the week ending June 25, 2019:

Don't be afraid to be a sheep

  1. Follow the trends. This is probably some of the hardest advice for a trader to follow because the personality of the typical futures trader is not “one of the crowd.” Futures traders (and futures brokers) are highly individualistic; the markets seem to attract those who are. Very simply, it takes a special kind of person, not “one of the crowd,” to earn enough risk capital to get involved in the futures markets. So the typical trader and the typical broker must guard against their natural instincts to be highly individualistic, to buck the trend.
  2. Know why you are trading the commodity markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful futures trading.
  3. Use a trading system, any system, and stick to it.
  4. Apply money management techniques to your trading.
  5. Do not overtrade.
  6. Take a position only when you know where your profit goal is and where you are going to get out if the market goes against you.
  7. Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
  8. Don’t trade many markets with little capital.
  9. Don’t just trade the volatile contracts.
  10. Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against holding it too long.
  11. Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react. Don’t change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
  12. Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
  13. Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline – the vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools.

Trading Errors

 Ignoring the downside of a trade. Most traders, when entering a trade, look only at the money they think they will make by taking the trade. They rarely consider that the trade may go against them and that they could lose. The reality is that whenever someone buys a futures contract, someone else is selling that same futures contract. The buyer is convinced that the market will go up. The seller is convinced that the market has finished going up. If you look at your trades that way, you will become a more conservative and realistic trader.

Taking too much risk. With all the warnings about risk contained in the forms with which you open your account, and with all the required warnings in books, magazines, and many other forms of literature you receive as a trader, why is it so hard to believe that trading carries with it a tremendous amount of risk? It’s as though you know on an intellectual basis that trading futures is risky, but you don’t really take it to heart and live it until you find yourself caught up in the sheer terror of a major losing trade. Greed drives traders to accept too much risk. They get into too many trades. They put their stop too far away. They trade with too little capital. We’re not advising you to avoid trading futures. What we’re saying is that you should embark on a sound, disciplined trading plan based on knowledge of the futures markets in which you trade, coupled with good common sense.

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