Archives of “futures markets” tag

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Dollar selling creeps in, S&P 500 futures higher

  
  Uncategorized
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Risk on the theme

The new week is starting where the last one left off.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% to start the week after a massive rally in global equities last week, including +10% in some European equities.
Protests didn’t slow down the market last week and they aren’t having an effect today. In FX, the US dollar and yen are sagging, which is a classic risk-on stance.
So far the moves are modest with the commodity currencies up 15-20 pips. The pound was especially soft late in the day Friday but it’s got some life early, up 27 pips to 1.2695.

European shares end with solid gains as risk on sentiment increases

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Hopes f him him him rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

European indices are ending the session with solid gains on hopes from the Gilead remdesivir drug,
  • German DAX, +3.0%
  • France’s CAC, +2.32%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.77%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +3.24%
In the European 10 year note sector are mostly lower with the exception of Italy (their credit rating was lowered by Fitch after the close yesterday)
Hopes f him him him _rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

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European major indices end their nightmare of a day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices down over 7%

The European stock markets are now close for the day and the nightmare is over.  The major indices all closed over 7% lower.   For the year the declines are near the -20% level. Ouch.
The provisional closes for the major indices are showing:
  • German DAX, -7.4%
  • France’s CAC, -7.9%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -7.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -8.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -11.1%
For the trading year, the provisional changes are showing
  • German DAX, -19.8%
  • France’s CAC, -20.67%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -20.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -18.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -20.3%
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is down $6.20 or -0.37% at $1667
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $8 or -19.43% at $33.26
In the US stock market:
  • S&P index is down -169 points or -5.7% the 2802
  • NASDAQ index is down -425 points or 4.98% at 8148
  • Dow is down -1600 points or -6.2% at 24263
In the US debt market yields remain sharply lower.
Major indices down over 7%_

US stock futures fall to session lows as New York rolls in

  
Analysis, US Market
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It’s going to be an interesting one

It's going to be an interesting one
S&P 500 futures are down 94 points following a 106 point decline yesterday. That more-than wipes out there 2% gain so far this week.
It’s a bloodbath in Europe as well with all the main indexes down around 3.5%.
What’s frightening is the drop in bond yields. US 10-year yields are down a whopping 17 basis points to 0.75% after falling to as low as 0.69%. Those numbers are below the T-bill yield of 0.755% and Fed funds. That’s a fresh inversion despite a 50 basis point cut on Tuesday.
With those declines, the dollar’s yield advantage is getting wiped out and as a result it’s falling sharply against the low yielders — JPY, CHF and EUR. I expect to see some additional dollar weakness but we’re fast-approaching the lower bound and the Fed has been steadfast that it won’t go negative. Once we get there, I think the dollar will start to appreciate again on safe haven flows.

European shares end the session with sharp declines

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX -1.8%

The major European shares are ending the session with sharp declines. For the year, the major European indices are also in the red.  A look at the provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -1.8%
  • France’s CAC, -2.0%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.4%
For the year, changes are all in the red led by a 7% decline in the UK FTSE 100.
  • German DAX, -3.4%
  • France’s CAC, -5%
  • UK’s FTSE, -7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.6%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit are showing:
  • Gold is still negative. It is trading down $10.80 or -0.65% at $1648.10. The spot price tried rebound and move higher on the fall in stocks, but seems to have sellers above. Recall that in yesterday’s trade, there was a large seller reported in the futures market which helped push the price lower in the New York afternoon session
  • WTI crude oil futures are following the risk off sentiment with the contract trading down -$0.89 or -1.7% at $50.54. The price is not far off the low at $50.37. The high reached $52.02
In the US stock market, the NASDAQ is leading the charge to the downside. It is currently down -100 points or -1.11% and 9116.
  • Dow -308 points or -1.11% at 27653
  • S&P index -34.5 points or -1.07% at 3191
  • Nasdaq down -100 points or -1.11% at 9116

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts continue to build

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending Feb 11, 2020:

  • EUR short 86K vs 75K short last week. Shorts increased by 11K
  • GBP long 21K vs 13K long last week. Longs increased by 8K
  • JPY short 26K vs 21K short last week. Shorts increased by 5k
  • CHF long 4K vs 5K long last week. Longs decreased by 1K
  • AUD short 33k vs 43K short last week. Shorts decreased by 10K
  • NZD short 4K vs 2K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 10k vs 19K long last week. Longs decreased by 9K

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 59K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 12K
  • GBP long 18K vs 25K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K
  • JPY short 36K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 9k
  • CHF loan 3.5K vs 1.5 long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD long 2K vs 1.8K longlast week. Longs increased by 0.2K
  • CAD long 35k vs 38K long last week. Longs decreased by 3K

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts had the biggest change in week (increase of 12K to the short side).
  • The EUR short 59K is the largest speculative position
  • JPY shorts trimmed. I have to think that there might be more liquidation over the last few days on the back of the coronavirus.
Below is the history of the EUR. It has been negative since the 1st week of October 2018.
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC_

Stocks end ugly as weekend coronavirus fears can’t slow the slide

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow down -600 points/-2.09%

The US stocks end an ugly day near the lows for the day. The Dow industrial average fell by over 600 points/2%. It was the worst day since August 23.  Moreover the Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months. For the S&P it had their worst day since October 2 . The Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months.  The S&P and NASDAQ had their worst start to the year in 5 years.  You get the picture.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P fell -58.14 points or -1.77% to 3225.52
  • Nasdaq fell -148 points or -1.59% to 9150.94
  • Dow fell -603.41 points or -2.09% to 28256.03.
For the month, the Nasdaq did still and positive for the month, but the S&P and Dow closed the month lower.
  • S&P, -0.16%
  • Nasdaq, +1.99%
  • Dow, -0.99%
In Europe today the major indices also closed near session lows. On what happened and Portugal but the PSI 20 did peek out a gain for the day.
Dow down -600 points/-2.09%
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