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CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC  should

  • EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
  • CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
  • AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
  • prior week

Modest changes in the major currencies for the current week. Although speculators trimmed short positions in the pound, it remains the largest specular position. The EUR shorts increased by 5K. It is the 2nd largest short position.

The specular position in the JPY remains on the long side. The CAD is also a long position for traders.

US major indices ending near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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Not a good day for the major stock indices

The major US stock indices were spooked by weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data . Shortly after the data came out, the major indices turned from being up to being down.

The momentum continued through the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -36.56 points or -1.23% in 2940.18. That is just off the session low at 2938.70. The pair fell below its 50 day moving average today which had been holding support for most of September. That MA comes in at 2948 area.  Stay below going forward keeps the bears in control.  The 100 day MA is down at 2925.50 currently.  A move below that level increases the bearish bias for the pair
  • NASDAQ index, -90.654 points or -1.3% at 7908.68. The low for the day reach 7906.293. For the Nasdaq index, it tumbled below its 100 day moving average at 7963.81 today.  The next major target would be its 200 day moving average. However that is still a bit away at 7704.411.
  • Dow fell -343.79 points of -1.28% at 26573.04.. The low for the index reached 26562.22.
Selling with broad-based today with all the major sectors moving lower.
Some of the major losers today included:
  • Charles Schwab, -9.73%. They lowered commissions $0 on trades
  • DuPont, -4.73%
  • Schlumberger, -4.36%
  • 3M, -3.67%
  • General Motors, -3.66%
  • Slack, -3.46%
  • Cisco, -3.36%
  • Caterpillar, -3.14%
  • Morgan Stanley, -3.05%
  • Ford motors, -2.84%
  • Wells Fargo, -2.76%
  • Fed ex, -2.72%
  • McDonald’s, -2.64%
  • Bank of America, -2.50%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.37%
  • Twitter, -2.33%
  • Goldman Sachs, -2.20%
Some winners on the day included
  • Phillip Morris, +2.52%
  • Tesla, +1.59%
  • Visa, +1.34%
  • Box, Inc, +1.15%
  • Wynn resorts, +1.11%
  • Netflix, +0.73%
  • Papa John’s +0.42%
  • Coca-Cola, +0.37%
  • Apple, +0.25%
  • Pepsi, +0.20%

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Canadian dollar buyers bail

  
Analysis, Forex
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Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending September 24, 2019 from the CFTC:
  • EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
  • JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
  • CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week.  Longs trimmed by 15K

There were some substantial moves across the board in this week’s data. There was no overarching theme in the US dollar. The loonie has stubbornly held onto longs but I suspect the jump in oil prices and lack of a corresponding climb in the loonie may have sent some specs to the sidelines — that data certainty hasn’t eroded.

Saudi Aramco lures sovereign funds to $2 trillion IPO valuation

  
  Analysis
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Reuters, exclusive

Reuters, exclusive
This just out from Reuters
‘State-owned Saudi Aramco has approached Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Singapore’s GIC and other sovereign wealth funds to invest in the domestic leg of the oil giant’s listing at it seeks to achieve a $2 trillion (1.6 trillion pounds) valuation, sources said’

IPO process still carrying on, despite the drone attacks mid-month.

Overnight :Not a good day on Wall Street as major indices react to potential impeachment proceedings

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq stocks lead the charge lower

The US major industries are closing lower on the day led by the NASDAQ stocks. Some major stocks like Netflix and Amazon fell sharply.  Today Netflix’s most bullish analyst slashed his price target for the stock from $515-$350. The stock was as high as $380 in July. For Amazon it fell below its 200 day moving average today.
The closing numbers for the major indices are showing:
  • S&P index, -25.18 points or -0.84% at 2966.60
  • NASDAQ index fell -118.83 points or -1.46% at 7993.62
  • Dow fell -142.22 point surmise 0.53 present at 26807.73
Although the indices were off the lows for the day (see % chante ranges for the major indices in North America and Europe below), they are ending nearer the lows for the day.

US Indices close the day down and also close lower on the week

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq falls 0.8% to today

The major US stock indices are ending the session in the red for the day. The declines today also helped push/keep the week lower.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -14.72 points or -0.49% at 2992.07.
  • NASDAQ index -65.20 points or -0.80% at 8117.68
  • Dow industrial average -159.72 points or -0.59% at 26935.07
For the week, the major indices fell with the Dow industrial average falling the most.
  • S&P index, -0.51%
  • NASDAQ composite index -0.72%
  • Dow industrial average, -1.05%

US Indices close with mixed results. Earlier gains taken away.

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

The major US stock indices are closing the day with mixed results.  Each however had earlier gains taken away into the close.
Looking at the three major indices, one ended unchanged, one was up marginally and one was down.  The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, unchanged at 3006.79. The high reach 3021.99.. The low extended to 3003.16
  • NASDAQ closed up 5.487 points or 0.07% at 8182.87. The high reached 8237.43. The low extended 28174.32
  • The Dow industrial average closed down -52.29 points or -0.19% at 27094.79. The high reached 27272.17. The low extended to 27064.21.
The chart below shows the percentage change high, the percentage change low, and the closing percentage change for the major North American and European stock indices today. European shares closed near their high levels for the day. The US major indices closed near their session lows.
S&P unchanged. Nasdaq up marginally. Dow down.

What seemed to be a negative catalyst for stocks was a report that a White House official commented that tariffs on China could go as high as 50 to 100%. That spooked the market and prices started to ratchet lower.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.06% at 22,001.32

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Tokyo’s main index returns from the long weekend to finish near flat levels today

Nikkei 17-09

It’s a bit of a mixed bag in Asia as Japanese stocks are playing catch up to the events in Saudi Arabia so we’re seeing O&G stocks do the heavy-lifting in Tokyo, offsetting geopolitical tensions that are weighing on risk sentiment elsewhere.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong and Chinese stocks were more pressured due to domestic factors with the city protests still causing some unrest in the former while the latter is dragged down by disappointment that China did not lower its one-year lending rate earlier today.
The Hang Seng is down by 1.5% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 1.7% currently. The risk mood overall remains more cautious but nothing suggestive of major flows as we begin European trading. USD/JPY sits just a tad higher at 108.20 currently.

Berkshire taps Japan’s hunger for yields with $4bn bond debut

  
  Analysis
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway headlined a record day in Japan’s bond market Friday by setting the terms on a 430 billion yen ($4 billion) offering, the biggest yen-denominated issue ever by a foreign multinational.

The U.S. investment group is selling five-, seven-, 10-, 15-, 20- and 30-year bonds.

The biggest chunk, 146.5 billion yen in 10-year debt, carries a 0.44% coupon — an attractive yield at a time when Japan’s benchmark long-term interest rate languishes below zero.

Banks, insurers, asset managers and other investors flocked to Berkshire’s offering, which falls under a global yen bond heading that allows foreign buyers to participate. Debt offerings under this framework have been growing gradually, with such big names as Apple, Starbucks, and Procter & Gamble joining in, and both Wall Street and Japanese financial institutions are pitching bond floats.

The success of the record debt sale could embolden other multinationals to raise capital in Japan’s bond market, where most yen-denominated offerings by foreign issuers have been small.

Berkshire’s AA issuer rating from S&P Global Ratings puts it slightly above the AA- of Japanese blue chip Toyota Motor. (more…)

US stocks break out of recent ranges with a big move higher

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow and S&P up for the 5th time in 6 trading days

The US major indices all broke above recent up and down trading ranges, and above their 50 day MAs as well.  The major pairs are each up over 1.30%. Big day for equities.

The final numbers are showing:

  • S&P index up 38.16 points or 1.30% to 2975.95. The day moving average is down at 2945.21.
  • NASDAQ index up 139.94 points or 1.75% at 8116.82. The 50 day moving average is down at 8047.98.
  • Dow is up 371.93 points or 1.41% at 26727.40. The 50 day moving average is down at 26563.34.
Apart from the UK’s FTSE which fell by -0.55% on the day on the back of a continuation of the upward momentum in the GBP, the other major indices traded above the 0.0% line for all of the day.   The biggest gainer was the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks which rose by 1.86%. The NASDAQ composite index tacked on another 1.75% gain after rising by nearly 2% at the highs.
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