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RISK in Trading -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Image result for risk gifLife is full of risks, and risks are all around you as a trader. In a perfect world there would be no risks and any decision you make will turn out to be the best one. You can hope for win after win, and not even have to worry about the prospect of losing. Yet this is an unrealistic and impossible scenario because as we all know trading is all about risk. However, there is no need to be afraid of risk. We need to accept the fact that it is there, and rather than focusing on fear we need to know how to deal with it and manage it.

This is where risk management comes into play. As a trader you need to be disciplined. You need to know how to understand the way you are thinking. At the end of the day it is all about trading psychology. Trading is not solely about getting an understanding of the market, and the trading skills such as recognizing trading patterns and managing risks. It is also about training yourself to be self-assured without being too risky. It is about being cautious, but not wait too long to take an action. It is about blocking emotions and sentiments which could impair your judgments. The market is constantly changing and you are going to be constantly faced with challenges, and so risk is inevitable. However the risk taht you tae can be calculated.

Thus as a trader you will need to balance out your trading skills with your trading psychology so as to master the mental game of trading. Here are some general rules which can help you in risk management:

  • Emotions have no place in trading. You need to make well planned and well calculated decisions that are not affected by sentiments. Otherwise your decision making process is going to take longer, and in all probability, be skewed.
  • You need to accept that you are not perfect, and so there are going to be times when you succeed, and other times when you fail and lose money. Successes and failures will result in different, and extreme emotions, but these emotions need to be controlled so as to keep thinking straight.
  • In order to minimize risks, many traders are well aware that it is best to opt for diversification. Having an diversified portfolio will help to reduce your risks. Money should be distributed across different kinds of investments so that in case a certain trading decision goes wrong it will be less likely to affect the trader in a dramatic way as one would still have other investments at one’s disposal.
  • Gaining experience is what many traders believe in in order to succeed. Through experience you gain more insight and knowledge, as well as trading skills. However despite their importance, they are not going to be enough to back your progression as a trader. You need to couple this up with clear thinking.
  • You need to have the willingness to take risks. However the risks that you take can be calculated and appropriate. Trading is risky, but in time you will learn how to go about it so as to minimize risks and the results thereafter. For instance, you should only risk money that you can afford to lose. Otherwise, it is best not to trade at all in such cases.

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Trading is all about YOURSELF

  
  Education
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Trading has to do a lot with yourself. Trading is not about the market.

You have to get your emotion and psychology right before you go to trade. Without the good emotion or feeling of the day, you will be most likely be losing during that day.

Do Not Trade, If …
– You cannot afford to lose the money. (Prepare to lose)
– You have a Bad day (quarrel with wife/child/boss).
– You are Sleepy
– You are Not comfortable in trading
– Technology failed You

Do not be afraid that you will lose the opportunity for the ride up or down. There are plenty of opportunity out there in the market everyday.

Remember: If you trade, you will lose money. If you don’t trade, at least you wont lose money.

The funny thing that i found out … People will lose money if they care about their money but people will make money if they don’t care about the money.
Get yourself right first and the money will come to you.

Should You Trust Your Trading Intuition?

  
Analysis, Education
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I’ve heard from many traders that they often take decisions based on instincts. Actually, all non-quants use intuition in some form or another. If you are not using a program that takes all signals that your system produces, how do you decide between several equally good looking trading setups with similar risk to reward? Do you take them all or do you concentrate on only a few? The odds are that you are doing the latter and your ultimate choice for capital allocation is subconscious.

Even though we are defined by our decisions, we are often completely unaware of what’s happening inside our heads during the decision-making process.
Feelings are often an accurate shortcut, a concise expression of decades’ worth of experience.
The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information that we can’t directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent.
This is an essential aspect of decision-making. If we can’t incorporate the lessons of the past into our future decisions, then we’re destined to endlessly repeat our mistakes.

Nothing can replace personal experience: (more…)

10 trading commandments

  
  Education
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1.) Respect the price action but never defer to it.

Our eyes are valuable tools when trading, but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down. That’s backward logic.

2.) Discipline trumps conviction.

No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and never believe you’re smarter than the market.

3.) Opportunities are made up easier than losses.

It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.

4.) Emotion is the enemy when trading.

Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision-making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard-earned coin. See related link.

5.) Zig when others zag.

Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects. If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are you’re it. (more…)

Trading Commandments

  
  Education
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Trading Commandments

 

“Opportunities are made up easier than losses”: Trade-Ideas’ alerts show hundreds of opportunites from which to choose every day. Take your time and find the right ones using The Odds Maker. There is no reason to rush or force anything – every trade arms you with an informational edge.

“Emotion is the enemy when trading”: Trading is ruled by fear and greed. Those two sinners thrive on a lack of enough information or trade expectations. The Odds Maker readout collars these guys by revealing a strategy’s odds of success (%) as well as average winners and losers and net gains or losses.

“Adapt your style to the market”: It is so important to know what kind of foe you are facing. Do breakouts follow through or do they pull back? Are you in a trending or range bound market?

“Keep Your Eye on the Bigger Picture” :No matter what time frame you are trading on, it’s good to know what is happening on the daily charts. Understanding the larger trends in the markets will allow you to be more decisive about your trades in the lower time frames and will help you maintain a more clear perspective. Trading with the overall trends will increase your odds for success.

 

10 Tips for Traders

  
  Education
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1. Bulls make a little. Bears make a little. Pigs get slaughtered
In other words, do not be a greedy trader. If you are a bull, don’t expect to get in at the bottom and out at the top. If you are a bear, don’t expect to pick an exact market top and ride a market all the way down to the lowest low. Thinking otherwise allows the destructive “greed” emotion to take over. Greed has been the ruin of many traders.

2. Any fool can get into a market, but it’s the real pros that know when to get out
Indeed, market entry is certainly an important element of successful trading. However, exiting the trade is paramount. Many times a traders will allow a market to “go against” him or her for way too long and way too far–meaning big trading losses. See next item.

3. Use protective buy and sell stops
One of the major mistakes many traders make is not using protective buy and sell stops when they enter a trade. Or, traders may pull their protective stop, “hoping” the market will turn in their favor. Don’t be fooled into using “mental stops.” Determining where to place protective buy and sell stops BEFORE market entry is one of the best money-management tools available. (more…)

Trading is all about YOURSELF

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Trading has to do a lot with yourself. Trading is not about the market.

You have to get your emotion and psychology right before you go to trade. Without the good emotion or feeling of the day, you will be most likely be losing during that day.

Do Not Trade, If …
– You cannot afford to lose the money. (Prepare to lose)
– You have a Bad day (quarrel with wife/child/boss).
– You are Sleepy
– You are Not comfortable in trading
– Technology failed You

Do not be afraid that you will lose the opportunity for the ride up or down. There are plenty of opportunity out there in the market everyday.

Remember: If you trade, you will lose money. If you don’t trade, at least you wont lose money.

The funny thing that i found out … People will lose money if they care about their money but people will make money if they don’t care about the money.
Get yourself right first and the money will come to you.

5-False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
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1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Desire and Fear in Trading

  
  Education
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Desire and fear alternate in the minds of traders as they go through the day.  But let me ask you whether desire or fear dominates your thoughts and feelings as you trade? 

For many traders the primary emotion is fear.  They fear loss: losing profits, losing money, losing equity and even their margin.  Some fear losing their touch, their feel for the market, their focus, their luck, the respect of their boss, colleagues, or mate, or worse, their own self esteem.

Other traders are flooded with the emotion of desire.  They look forward to what the day will produce.  They like the thrill of the chase.  They have a sense of unlimited potential and abundant opportunities for profit.  They anticipate improving their skills, intuition, and understanding as they go through the trading day and week.

Keep in mind that desire is not greed.  Greed is an inordinate wanting.  It is excessive desire and comes from a sense of scarcity, a feeling that there is not and will not be enough.  Desire is healthy: greed is unhealthy.

What you feel depends upon your mental focus.  Do you place your conscious and unconscious attention on the possibility of loss or the probability (hopefully) of gain?

What you hold in your conscious attention colors your reality and becomes the quality and fabric of your life and trading. In your life, do you look for what’s missing, or do you pay attention to what you have and can create?  Do you think about terrible things that have happened and could happen again, or do you think about wonderful experiences you’ve had and expect even better things ahead?  Trading is a microcosm of life.  What you do in life, you’ll do in trading.

You can through conscious volition change your focus from loss to gain.  You can imagine failure or success.  You can anticipate improving your skills and understanding, or you can worry about getting even worse. (more…)

The importance of emotion in trading.

  
  Education
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Anxious:  Am I prepared?  Can I afford to lose what I am risking?  Am I breaking my rules?  Did I drink too much caffeine?

Anger:  Have I not moved from the last trade?  Am I tired?  Is there conflict in my personal life?

Happiness:  Are psychological gains more important than monetary gain?  Am I overconfident?

Indifference:  Do I care?  Is something more important?

It is natural to feel emotion but in an appropriate and proportional way.

Anxious:

To this day, the first trade always produces a little anxiety.  That little tingle in your stomach and shallow breathing.  The same is true when I a trade I have been waiting for sets up.  Above that, I know there is something wrong.

Anger and Happiness:

I am angry after a negative outcome and happy after a positive outcome but in order to adapt more quickly I have to remove emotion from the outcome as soon as possible.  It is more important to focus on what happened and less how I feel about it. Prolonged feelings of anger or happiness causes risk blindness and impedes my learning.  Misjudging risk will prevent me from taking a trade or taking too much risk. (more…)

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