Archives of “emotion” tag

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Don't Get Trapped

  
  Education
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1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

Seven Insights for Disciplined Trading

  
  Education
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I’ve always been a fan of Mark Douglas’ work, as my copy of his initial book on trading psychology, The Disciplined Trader, is thoroughly marked up thanks to Douglas’ many innovative ideas about mastering the internal challenges we all face with trading.  His newest book, Trading in the Zone, is full of more great insights. I recently finished reading his excellent follow-up work, and it sparked my review of key points I take out of Douglas’ ground-breaking insights:

1) Develop consistency.  Douglas focuses on how we can create a mindset of consistency by developing beliefs which support us in obtaining this result.  In order to develop consistency, Douglas emphasizes beliefs such as objectively identifying your edges, defining the risk in each trade in advance, accepting the risk to be able to exit a position when a defined loss level is realized, and many other key mindsets that help traders work through the issues they face in taking a trade, making the trade and executing their exit from the trade.

2) Trading is a probability game.  You can’t be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. Your losses (that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you.

3) Jumping in too soon or getting in too late.  These mistakes come from traders not having a well-defined plan of how they will enter the market.  This positions the trader as a reactive trader instead of a proactive trader, which increase the level of emotion the trader will feel in reacting to market movements.  A written plan helps make a trader more systematic and objective, and reduces the risk that emotions will cause the trader to deviate from his plan.

4) Not taking profits on winners and letting winners turn to losers.  Again this is a function of not having a properly thought-out plan.  Entries are easy but exits are hard.  You must have a plan for how you will exit the market, both on your winners and your losers.  Then your job as a trader becomes to execute your plan precisely.

5) Great traders don’t place their own expectations on to the market’s behavior.  Poor traders expect the market to give them something.  When conditions change, a smart trader will recognize that, and take what the market gives. 

6) Emotional pain comes from expectations not being realized.  When you expect something, and it doesn’t deliver as expected, what occurs? Disappointment.  By not having expectations of the market, you are not setting yourself up for this inner turmoil.  Douglas states that the market doesn’t generate pain or pleasure inherently; the market only generates upticks and downticks.  It is how we perceive and respond to these upticks and downticks that determine how we feel.  This perception and feeling is a function of our beliefs.  If you’re still feeling pain when taking a loss according to your plan, you are still experiencing a belief that your loss is somehow a negative reflection on you personally. 

7) The Four Major Fears – fear of losing money, being wrong, missing out, leaving money on the table.  All of these fears result from thinking you know what will happen next. Your trading plan must approach trading as a probabilities game, where you know in advance you will win some and lose some, but that the odds will be in your favor over time.  If you approach trading thinking that you can’t take a loss, then take three losses in a row (which is to be expected in most trading methods), you will be emotionally devastated and will give up on your plan.

Don't Try to Predict Your Own Behavior

  
Analysis, Education
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“It’s easy to see, hard to foresee.” ~ Ben Franklin

How often have you accurately predicted your reaction to emotion-provoking events in your life?

When the stock market gets volatile as it has been in recent weeks, I am reminded of the irrelevence of risk tolerance questionnaires.  If you’ve ever sat down with an investment advisor or financial planner, you’ve likely seen or heard the questions that try to predict how you might react in various stock market scenarios. 

For example: 

“If your investment portfolio were to fall by 20% in the course of one year, how would you react?  Would you A) Do nothing, B) Wait a few months to make a decision, or C) Sell your stocks immediately?” (more…)

Why System Trading Is Ultimately Discretionary

  
  Education
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Successful system trading, in spite of the financial rewards, can be frustrating.  A quantified mechanical model will take many decisions off the table.  Yet, various issues, particularly the psychological approach to the issues, will always be in play.

Ed Seykota in the book, “Market Wizards,” writes, “Systems trading is ultimately discretionary.  The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase the trading base as a function of equity change.  These decisions are quite important, often more important than trade timing.”

It seems most sophisticated traders are aware of the fact that a system needs to be properly quantified and tested before trading. The sample size of the trades needs to be large. These traders are familiar with the terms of curve fitting and optimization. I wonder, however, how many traders continue to study the model as they trade their equity. How many understand the logic behind the entries, stops, exits, and money management techniques. How many are adjusting position size to meet expanding and contracting volatility and changes in market correlation. (more…)

10 Habits of Successful Traders

  
  Education
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1.  Follow the Rule of Three.  The rule of three simply states that a trade will not be made unless you can carefully articulate three reasons for doing so.  This eliminates trading from an indicator alone.

2.  Keep Losses Small.  It is vitally important to keep losses small as most all of large losses began as small ones, and large losses can put an end to your trading career.

3.  Adjust Stops.  When a trade is working move your stop loss up in order to lock in gains.

4.  Keep Commissions Low.  There is a cost to trading but there is no reason to overpay brokerage fees.  A discount brokerage is just as good as a premium brand name one.

5.  Amateurs at the Open, Pros at the Close.  The best time to enter trades are after lunch when the professionals are looking to get in at a better price than one provided in the morning.

6.  Know the General Market Trend.  When trading individual stocks make sure you trade with the general market trend or condition, not against it. 

7.  Write Down Every Trade.  Doing this will allow you to learn what is working and what is not.  It will also help you determine what types of trades work best for your personality.

8.  Never Average Down a Losing Position.  It is a loser’s game when you add to a loser.  You add to winning positions because they are winners and are proving themselves to be such.

9.  Never Overtrade.  Overtrading is a direct result of not following a well thought out plan, deciding it is best to trade off emotion instead.  This will do nothing but cause frustration and a loss of money.

10.  Give 10 Percent Away.  Money works the fastest when it is divided.  When we share we prime the economic pump of the universe. 

Trading is a game of rules.  We either make the decision to abide by them or we break them.  We do the latter at our own peril. 

Trading Commandments

  
  Education
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Respect the price action but never defer to it. 
Our eyes are valuable tools when trading but if we deferred to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down and that’s a losing proposition. 
Discipline trumps conviction. 
No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always attempt to define your risk and never believe that you’re smarter than the market. 
Opportunities are made up easier than losses. 
It’s not necessary to play every day; it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability. 
Emotion is the enemy when trading. 
Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision making process will be flawed. Take a deep breath before risking your hard earned coin. 
Zig when others Zag. 
Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects (in the context of controlled risk). If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are that you’re it. 
Adapt your style to the market. 
Different investment approaches are warranted at different junctures and applying the right methodology is half the battle. Identify your time horizon and employ a risk profile that allows the market to work for you. 
Maximize your reward relative to your risk. 
If you’re patient and pick your spots, edges will emerge that provide an advantageous risk/reward profile. Proactive patience is a virtue. 
Perception is reality in the marketplace. 
Identifying the prevalent psychology is a necessary process when trading. It’s not “what is,” it’s what’s perceived to be that dictates supply and demand. 
When unsure, trade “in between.” 
Your risk profile should always be an extension of your thought process. If you’re unsure, trade smaller until you identify your comfort zone. 
Don’t let your bad trades turn into investments. 
Rationalization has no place in trading. If you put a position on for a catalyst and it passes, take the risk off—win, lose or draw. 

Warren Buffett's Worst Trade & Biggest Mistake

  
Analysis, Education
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Investors always remember their worst trade or biggest mistake. Warren Buffett is no different. However, Buffett’s biggest mistake might surprise you. In an interview with CNBC, the Oracle of Omaha admitted that the worst trade of his career was buying Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Imagine that. But if you dig deeper into his account of the story, you’ll see that while his worst trade might have been buying Berkshire Hathaway, his biggest mistake was letting emotion get the better of him.

Embedded below is the video where Buffett talks about his worst trade in Berkshire Hathaway

21 Ways Rich People Think Differently

  
  Education
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1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.

2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue.

3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.

4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.

 5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.

6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.

7. Average people earn money doing things they don’t love. Rich people follow their passion.

8. Average people set low expectations so they’re never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.

9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich. (more…)

Justification Mode

  
  Education
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As most experienced traders will tell you, the most difficult thing about trading well is that you’ve got to learn for yourself how to stop protecting your ego and readily own up to mistakes quickly before they do significant and lasting real damage. No matter how hard you try, you will never be able to entirely separate your ego away from your trading. Those who tell you that you can, are, in my view, just wrong and have little understanding about how to trade well. As long as you are human, you are going to trade with both emotion and ego, but the better traders among us simply learn how to work with both in ways that limit their negative influence.

You don't need to follow trading rules

  
  Education
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We’ve all heard the proselytizers of trade planning bemoan lesser traders that they need to follow their trade rules. Yet, emotional traders still dominate the retail trading landscape. After hearing about how bad they are for acting as they do, they flagellate themselves for allowing emotion to enter into their trading decisions and re-dedicate themselves to discipline trading without emotions. But who are we to judge why and how someone else trades with their money?

Of all the different types of trading styles, I find the emotional style of trading the most entertaining. It is more human and natural than a game of probability. There is personal stuff at stake. Anyone who preaches to you that you need to stop it and get a plan is really preaching to themselves. They are healing a wound, or trying to convince themselves that they no longer participate in the egregious activity of trading without one. They are essentially scared of their emotions.

You cannot detach yourself from your emotions. If you want to trade based on emotions, I support your decision. After all, it’s your money and it’s not my place to tell you what to do with it.

Rules. We think of them as ‘made to be broken’ for a good reason. Rules are limiting and suffocating. Yes, we need some basic ones in our lives, but as soon as a method of trading is defined as a rule, the inner workings of the imagination begins the task of find ways around it. It’s only natural. Our total human experience cannot be contained with stupid rules. And who is making these rules anyway? Why are they valid? We all know that rules are put in place because we basically don’t trust someone (maybe ourselves) to do the right thing when the time comes. (more…)

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