It has been more than a year since the S&P 500 went down 10%. In the nearly 17 years since March 2003, there have been 19 declines of 10% or more. There have been 82 declines of 5% or more.
Drawdown Qty Trading days Days since last
5% 82 4234 64
10% 19 4234 298
20% 5 4234 259
25% 2 4234 2731
33% 1 4234 2831
The Greatest Trading Loss
What is the greatest risk you face in trading?
Is it loss of money?
Certainly, that’s what most traders believe. I tend to disagree though. In my opinion we have something much greater at risk, that very few of us consider during the ‘learning phase’.
The American political journalist and author, Norman Cousins, is quoted as saying, ‘Death is not the greatest loss in life. The greatest loss is what dies inside us while we live.’
Along similar lines, I would argue that loss of capital is not the greatest loss in trading. The greatest loss is what we lose from within. (more…)
How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.
The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.
Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.
Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.Take a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?
If you never trade, can you be a successful speculator?
If you cost average, and are disciplined, are you a successful speculator?
If you compound at 50% per year for 10 years, and then lose everything in an afternoon, are you a successful speculator?
If you lose everything in an afternoon, and then learn from your mistake, and then compound at 50% for the next 10 years, are you a successful speculator?
If you compound at 6% per year for 10 years, and never have a meaningful drawdown, are you a successful speculator?
If the risk free rate is 6%, and you are making 12%, are you a more successful speculator then if the risk-free rate is 0% and you are making 6%?
If you think you are a successful speculator, can you really be a successful speculator?
If you think you are not a successful speculator, can you be a successful speculator?
Who are the most successful speculators of the past 100 years? Who are the least successful speculators of the past 100 years?
1. Profitability: This is a must when we look for a system .Lowering the risk factor and increasing the reward is simply the answer to a profitable system
2. Probability: One of the important elements of a trading system, but it does not always mean it will be a profitable trading system, if the proper money management is not in use.
3. Consistency: Without consistency we will not be able to breath in the on going changing market condition. A consistently profitable system will pick up some drawdown as soon as the extreme condition is over.
4.Flexibility: Providing Simple, Easy and Powerful System which can be used in any time frame and on any financial instrument.
Very often we learn more from our failures than from our successes. The path to success travels inevitably through certain failures.
A look at successful traders and entrepreneurs shows that they have been able to survive failure as many times as they have had to. They use failure as feedback. They learn from it and make changes and go on. Many super traders have experienced crushing loss in their early trading years. All of them picked themselves up, made adjustments, and with the sure belief that they could make it back through better trading, did just that.
Successful traders are able to ride through periods of drawdown easily because they believe the drawdown to be only temporary. They distinguish the difference between simple losses and loss that comes from mistakes. Their confidence in their methods and their ability and their vision of what the markets can provide reassures them about their future success. Any period of loss is viewed as transitory.
Fear of failure keeps many traders from the success they so dearly want. They are afraid to fail and therefore either afraid to trade or to admit the failure and learn from it. I’m not saying you should like loss. Winning traders don’t want to punish themselves, but successful traders don’t dread loss either because they know that whatever happens, they can make it back. And they can learn.
Strangely enough, failure is often a necessary stepping stone to success. Those who are too fearful of failure may never get to the success they long for. Fear can lead us not only away from the thing we fear but also away from the thing we seek. Ironically, fear can also lead us directly into the thing we fear. My thesis is that underneath fear of failure is a sense of scarcity.
Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.
The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.
The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.
Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.
As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money.
Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.
The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.
The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.
Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.
As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money.
Don’t over-leverage yourself or have all of your money tied into one position. Keeping cash on hand is okay as a trader. These days brokers are offering extremely competitive margin requirements for day trading futures, but low margins can be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.My greatest weakness as a trader is the sudden deterioration of a sound and patient mindset that can occur at any moment throughout the trading day, so here is my checklist that I use to remind myself each morning of the elements most important for my performance.
1. Attitude: Are you optimistically patient? Can you picture yourself not trading at all today if no opportunities arise? Are you Little Orphan Annie or Agent Jack Bauer when it comes to the word Tomorrow?
2. Preparation: System implementation and account management. Have you noted any possible setups forthcoming for optimal entry and the actions entailed? Have you noted your max drawdown limit for the day and the willingness to honor it?
3. Balance of Concentration: Trading is as much anticipation of changes in your mentality as it is the market. Don’t let yourself get completely absorbed by the “flickering ticks” and stay equally grounded on both sides of the monitor.
4. Equanimity: Concentrate on staying collected under fire, no matter how wild the market or how quickly losses come in succession — keep the ship upright.
5. Visualization: Visualize each of the following:
— Seeing a system signal, and entering the trade without further thought
— A stop-loss triggered almost instantly, and just as quickly forgotten.
— Waiting for the market to come to you before entering. (more…)
