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Goldman Sachs analyst on downside risk for US equities

Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin spoke Tuesday with CNBC

  • “There’s a little bit of asymmetry in terms of the downside risk toward a level in the S&P 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25%, and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000”
Unpicking/deciphering that – he thinks lower is more likely.
More:
  • important investors not get too keen to buy
  • during the 2008 financial crisis the market took several months of violent moves up and down before ultimately putting in a lasting bottoming on March 9, 2009
  • “I would just remind you that in 2008 in the fourth quarter there were many different rallies…but the market did not bottom until March of 2009” 

10% corrections in S&P 500

It has been more than a year since the S&P 500 went down 10%. In the nearly 17 years since March 2003, there have been 19 declines of 10% or more. There have been 82 declines of 5% or more.

Drawdown  Qty    Trading days Days since last
5%      82            4234              64
10%      19            4234             298
20%       5            4234             259
25%       2            4234            2731
33%       1            4234            2831