Correction Starts…
Yesterday closed 10897 level.
Now below 10938 level ,Bears will have upperhand.
Iam expecting DOW to crash upto 10788-10738 level in this slide.
I will update more on Sunday about DOW ,S&P 500 !!
Updated at 16:17/08th April/Baroda
Archives of “dow jones” tag
rssKey Quotes From Paul Tudor Jones in TRADER: The Documentary
Paul Tudor Jones is famous for correctly predicting Black Monday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 22 percent in one day. I recently re-watched TRADER: The Documentary, one of the classics in investor education. Wikipedia describes it as:
In the 1987, PBS film “TRADER: The Documentary”. The film shows Mr. Jones as a young man predicting the 1987 crash, using methods similar to market forecaster Robert Prechter.
Although the video was shown on public television in November 1987, very few copies exist. Those that do are hoarded by traders who watch the hourlong movie in the hope of gleaning possible trading tips from Jones. On the Internet, bids for the video start at $295. According to Michael Glyn, the video’s director, Jones requested in the 1990s that the documentary be removed from circulation. The video surfaced briefly on YouTube at the end of July 2009, before being taken down due to alleged copyright violation.
For the past two years, the video has been available here at Tudou, but recently has only been limited to viewers in Asia due to copyright violation. I watched a copy that I had saved to my local hard drive recently with the purpose of transcribing certain portions that I found particularly enlightening.
One theme throughout the documentary is that Paul Tudor Jones and other individuals profiled thoroughly enjoy the act of analyzing financial markets and they are not primarily driven by greed. This is a defining characteristic of investment managers who have reached the top of their profession:
Well I originally decided to come here to be on vacation, getting away from everything. Then as it turned out, a number of the clients are here in Europe, so I’ve been doing an enormous amount of business. I’ve been in Paris, I’ve been in Geneva, so I can combine business with pleasure. I wish it had been more pleasure, but I still wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. If life ever ceased to be an educational experience, I probably wouldn’t get out of bed.
After a while, the size means nothing. It gets back to the question of whether you’re making a 100 percent rate-of-return on $10,000 or $100 million. It doesn’t make any difference. If you complete 78 percent of your passes, it’d be nice if you were in the NFL, but if you’re in college or high school or even elementary school, I’m sure the thrill is just as great.
Paul Tudor Jones’s intensity and passion is quite apparent throughout as well. The film crew follows him over a course of several months, so viewers are able to see him on a down 5 percent day and an up 5 percent day. Paul Tudor Jones shares some insights on the qualities he values most as an investment manager:
The whole concept of the investment manager making these incredible intellectual decisions about which way the market is going to go — I don’t want that guy managing my money. If he can be that dispassionate, he doesn’t have the competitive nature which is necessary to be a winner in this game. I want the guy who is not giving to panic, who is not going to be overly emotionally involved, but who is going to hurt when he loses. When he wins, he’s going to have quiet confidence. But when he loses, he’s gotta hurt.
To do the job right requires such an enormous amount of concentration. It’s physically and emotionally mandatory that you find some time to relax. And you’ve got to be able to turn it off like that. There will be times though that I get so incredibly excited about a trade or even a project that I’ll wake up at 4 o’clock in the morning and there’s no way in hell that I’m going back to sleep. I’ll sit there in my dreams and trade for four hours. (more…)
The Wisdom of the Legendary Paul Tudor Jones
At 56, Paul Tudor Jonesis a self made billionaire with a net worth of 3.3 billion and is ranked as the 336th richest person in the world, he knows exactly how to trade the biggest money for the biggest returns. One of Jones’ earliest and major successes was anticipating and trading through Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event due to large short positions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (-22.61%) on that day. While the majority of others lost more than they ever had in their lifetime, Jone’s was on the other side of their trade making a fortune. That is the sign of a truly great trader making money at the tipping points that most others miss. Paul Tudor Jones has returned double digit annual returns to his investors for decades. He is one of the greatest traders to have ever lived, we need to sit up and listen closely to his advice, it is priceless.
Risk Management
“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”
“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt.”
“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.”
Trader Psychology
“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”
“Losers average losers.”
“Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked.”
Method
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”
“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.”
“The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?”
“The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital.”
That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’
Has A New Euro Downtrend Started?
Standard Chartered think so, targeting an eventual move to 1.15. They feel the ECB is getting closer to monetisation and euro-zone economy is weakening. Dow Jones reporting the banks’ strategist Steve Barrow saying ‘In short, has the euro started a journey that will lead to significant declines in coming months? We think the answer is ‘yes,’ he says’ |
German Economics Minister Confirms Fed Manipulates The FX Market
The German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle has just confirmed precisely what many have known and said for years, namely that the US Federal Reserve is active in the secondary markets, in this particular case in FX. While not so much of a secret for some of the fringe players such as a the SNB, BOE and BOJ, the Fed has never had a formal statement on currency intervention, as, of course, it would have been seen as a sign of weakness (and allegedly could be considered an unconstitutional activity). And why would anybody dream of manipulating the world’s strongest currency. Of course, if Bernanke manipulates currencies, as has now been confirmed, it is more than clear that he directly buys and sells stocks in the secondary market, and/or Treasuries in the primary. We wonder what other juicy disclosure Bernanke’s trans-Atlantic CB colleagues will announce once they are cornered about their recent market manipulative conduct.
From Dow Jones:
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also active in currency markets, German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said Friday. His comments come on the heels of remarks made by his Swiss counterpart who said that the Swiss National Bank purchased euros to buttress the single currency. “It is a regular procedure of central banks,” to intervene in currency markets, Bruederle said. “It is not a secret,” that central banks have a foreign exchange rate target, he added. Bruederle said “eruptive” movements have to be avoided. He previously said that China holds 25 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in euros. |
Dow Jones -Hurdles :10209-10315-10350
Double Bottom at 9774-9757 ?
Yesterday spurted by 273 points and closed at 10172 level.
Now ,What to expect ?
Just Watch :10209 level
Crossover above this level will take to recent high of 10315-10350 level.
The level of 10412 is Major Hurdle for Bull’s
Three Consecutive close above 10412 wil take to 10630-10703 level.
I will Update about Nasdaq Composite ,S&P500 in afternoon
Updated at 5:37/11th June/Baroda
ECB Purchases Of Sovereign Bonds Surge Tenfold Compared To Prior Week, Hit €1.4 Billion
After dropping to a modest €134 million last week, ECB purchases of sovereign debt exploded tenfold in the last ended week to €1.384 billion, confirming that the ECB continues to bid up all Portuguese and Irish bonds available for sale, so the market does not crash. As Reuters notes, this is the highest weekly amount purchase since early July. Once again it is up to the European Fed-equivalent to be the buyer of only resort. And Europe’s continued central bank facilitated life support comes on the heels of the latest joke in recession timing: per Dow Jones, the Center for Economic Policy Research Monday said its Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee had determined that the currency area’s recession began in January 2008 and ended in April 2009, lasting a total of 15 months and reducing gross domestic product by 5.5%. Some recovery there, when half the PIIGS have no access to capital markets, have their Prime Ministers mocked during conference calls, and are fighting with an exchange rate last seen long before Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland had to be rescued. We wonder what the CEPR’s timing on the end of the European depression will end up being?
Marc Faber: Euro Oversold, If S&P Above 1150 Could See 20% Correction
Market: “I’m not so sure that we’ll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don’t think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside. I think if we make a new high then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don’t forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn’t going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January.”
Currencies: Euro: “Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you’ve read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there’s nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don’t think there is much good about the Euro either…”
US Dollar: “When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that they’ll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don’t forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro. Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong”.
Asset Class Right Now: “Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we’ll have to see further. In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we’ll get more inflation in due course”.
Dear Traders ,Just see ..What I had forecasted/Written about S&P 500 on 19th ,28th Jan’10 and on 3rd Feb’10
Technically Yours
Japan Data out now
Apr Curr Acct Surplus Y750bn
Japan’s current account balance produced a surplus for the third straight month in April, the Ministry of Finance said Monday, as the weaker yen helped boost the value of income from overseas investments, more than offsetting for the nation’s massive trade deficits.
The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of Japan’s trade with the rest of the world, stood at Y750.0 billion in April before seasonal adjustment, the data showed. That’s wider than expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Nikkei, who estimated a surplus of Y310 billion.
The figure compares with a year-ago surplus of Y373.5 billion, and the previous month’s surplus of Y1.251 trillion.
Jan-Mar Revised Annualized GDP +4.1%; Prelim +3.5%
Japan’s gross domestic product expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated during the January-March quarter, offering a fresh indication that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policies have started to take effect. (more…)