Archives of “diversification” tag

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Risk Management Game

  
  Education
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A random person is pulled off the street and given $10,000 to trade.  They have no prior experience which, on the bright side, means they have no bad habits, emotional baggage, or preconceived notions.  Before trading they go through a five day crash course on market basics (order entry process, chart reading, pattern recognition, etc…).  Suppose you are tasked with the responsibility of drafting a set of risk management rules which they are required to abide by.  The objective is to make them survive as long as possible in the trading arena so they can learn as much as possible through first-hand experience.

What types of rules would you set?

The ideal approach of course is to structure a set of rules which makes it as difficult as possible to blow up the account while still leaving them open to accumulating profits.  The goal isn’t so much helping them capture large gains as much as it is helping them survive.  After learning how to survive, then they can modify their approach to being more aggressive and seeking larger gains.

Here are two of my top rules: (more…)

10 Lessons for Traders & Life

  
Education, Life
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1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities: jobs, relationships, and personal involvements. Successful people are successful because they cut their losing experiences short and ride winning experiences.
2) Diversification works well in life and markets. Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.
3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit. Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.
4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge, pressing it when you have the opportunity, and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.
5) Risks and rewards are always proportional. The latter, in life as in markets, requires prudent management of the former. (more…)

10 One Liner Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.
Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.
Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.
Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.
Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.
Letting Winners Run- Don’t kill your winners.
Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Recommendation: Give your account the same foundation so you can participate in the activity above.
Long: My rules
Short: My emotion

17 Investors in One Word Each

  
  Education
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#1 Warren Buffett: Focus

This is the word Warren Buffett uses to describe himself when asked about the key to his success. He focused moe on making money than most people. A lot more than Ben Graham or Charlie Munger. Focus is also a good word to describe Buffett’s investment style. He only makes big investments on big ideas. And at some times he concentrated his investment on an industry like media & advertising in the 70s or consumer products in the 80s.

 #2 Charlie Munger: Smart

I thought he’s the smartest person I knew after reading Poor Charlie’s Almanack. I like his ideas about a multi-disciplinary approach. And I like the way he waits and bets big when opportunities appear. I agree with him that diversification is to protect against ignorance. People may think he’s arrogant. I think he has earned the right to be arrogant.

 #3 Ben Graham: Lazy

Actually Ben Graham did a lot of things. He wrote a Broadway play. He read French novels. He recited Spanish poets. Investing was just one of his interests. By lazy, I mean he didn’t focus on investing as much as Warren Buffett. He wanted to find a safe system for investing. But that doesn’t mean he’s not good. He’s great. He knows where to apply his system.

 #4 Phil Fisher: Conviction

For all his life, Phil Fisher followed what he believed. He wanted to find companies with the capabilities to constantly find new products/services for growth. And when he believed he found the right company, he never sold.

 #5 Tom Russo: Long-Term

I like his investment style. He learned to buy and hold the stocks that he understood best after listening to Warren Buffett’s talk to his Stanford business school class in 1980. He mainly focuses on food and beverage companies. And he holds for very long time. He bought one of his favorites, Nestle, in 1987. And he still owns it today. (more…)

5 Major Trading Pitfalls

  
  Education
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2dl87puPitfall #1. Betting the farm. Let’s be realistic. Not every trade is going to be a winner. Here is a simple rule for you to remember. Never commit more than 10% to any one position. When I was trading in the pits in Chicago I heard for the first time about the “RIOTRADE”. Simply put, you take a huge position in the market. If it works out, you are a hero. If you lose, you leave home and head for Brazil. Again, NEVER BET THE FARM ON ANY POSITION.

Pitfall #2. Planting too few seeds. This one goes hand in hand with the first pitfall. The key here is diversification and following several markets. Ken watches 30 markets and looks for profit opportunities in each one as they occur. PLANT MORE SEEDS AND YOU CAN ENJOY MORE WINNERS.

Pitfall #3. Jumping the gun. Patience, patience, patience. This is perhaps one of the toughest things for traders to remember, particularly after they have taken some good money out of the market. JUMPING INTO A MARKET BEFORE ALL INDICATORS ARE POSITIVE CAN CAUSE UNNECESSARY LOSSES.

Pitfall #4. The hope trap. This is one of those pitfalls that goes completely against human nature and it is the biggest account killer. What I am talking about is hanging onto a losing position in the desperate hope that it will turn around. A SIMPLE SOLUTION IS TO ALWAYS PLACE A STOP ON EVERY MARKET POSITION AND DO NOT CANCEL IT! (more…)

Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms

  
  Education
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On Risk:
– Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
– Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
– Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
– Always take your profit too soon.
– Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
– When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
– Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
– Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
– Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly. (more…)

MSCI goes beyond BRICs

  
Analysis, Education
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MSCI has launched the MSCI EM Beyond BRIC Index, a new subset of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

The new index comprises seventeen countries and excludes the ‘BRIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which currently represent around 40% of the wider emerging markets index. MSCI said the new index offered a way to ‘track and evaluate the emerging markets opportunity set for those wishing to invest in countries outside the BRIC region’.

The index is market cap weighted, but the weighting towards the larger markets of Korea, South Africa and Taiwan is capped on a quarterly basis at 15% to ensure greater diversification. This gives greater prominence to smaller emerging market countries.

As it stands, after Korea, South Africa and Taiwan, the largest weightings in the index will be towards Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Chile, Columbia, the Philippines, Turkey and Poland all have a weighting in excess of 2%.

Performance comparison (more…)

Your Mails -My Answers

  
  Education
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Q:  Can you discuss the concept of drawdowns a bit? Novice traders seem to think experienced traders become proficient to the point that they are right much more than not and thus experience very small drawdowns. But talking to experienced traders this does not seem to be the case.

A:  In my view, the biggest difference between a successful trader and one who is not is how they manage their mistakes. Note, I am of the opinion that those who trade well don’t make fewer mistakes but they simply have learned how to handle them when they occur. This opinion is based on years of experience but also more recently working closely one-on-one with other traders. The fastest way I’ve learned to be of help to others is to show them how to recognize, quickly admit, and then take aggressive action when a mistake has been made. Losers tend to make bigger mistakes out of small ones. They let their egos get in the way and double-down in losing trades and make matters worse when a mistake is made.

Ultimately, the best you can do in this business is try to be “more right than wrong,” especially at key turning points and be quick to repair and take remedial action when you are wrong as well as managing your risk through proper trading size, stop losses, and simple diversification.

Q:  I know that Alexander Elder recommends trading less often for better results. And after reading your blog for the last couple of years I know that you follow this strategy for the most part as well. What do you do in a range bound time such as what we are experiencing, have you been doing more day trading?

A:  I’ve been very inactive recently. In fact, when you see more posts at the website (especially those link posts that take so much time and energy to do), you pretty much can count on that I’m doing a lot of sideline sitting. In many ways, this blog helps me stay patient as it keeps me busy and focused without feeling the necessity to make trades that don’t offer exactly what I’m looking for. All good traders seem to have different ways to cope when the environment is not receptive and I recommend you find ways to cope as well. As for day trading, that is fine if you love doing that, but that’s never been my desire. Day trading for pennies a trade seems too much like work and I don’t need that kind of stress. I can afford to be patient and pick my spots.

To send in your question(s) for next mailbag, please send me e-mail at [email protected] Although I may not directly answer your question in these  posts, it is extremely helpful to know what topics are of interest to you so that I can find links and look for opportunities to discuss and cover your interests in the future. Thank you!

16 Points for Day Traders

  
  Education
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Accepting risk may cause losses, but accepting unfunded liabilities and negative skew can bankrupt us.

Use models not to predict, but to create a range of possible outcomes for which we can plan.

Markets follow cycles based on the perceptions and actions of its players, and one can gain alpha by using these cycles to manage risk and reward.

Markets SEEK efficiency, but offer tremendous opportunities while traveling from inefficiency to efficiency.

Both people and machines have flaws, so use the best attributes of each for peak performance.

Forecasting is necessary but should be timid in nature, while action is not always necessary but should be BOLD on the occasions when conditions dictate it.

Risk management is made more complete by searching for information that differs from your analysis rather than by that which confirms it.

Successful practitioners turn mistakes into assets by generating learning experiences and continuous improvement.

Remember to distinguish between clues that are necessary, vs. a complete picture revealing a group of necessary AND sufficient measures.

Markets can be generally explained 95% of the time, but extreme events happen much more than a bell curve would indicate…using options guarantees that we’ll survive fat tails and grab positive skew.

We are certain we DON’T know what will happen, so the best approach is to figure out what WON’T happen and blueprint accordingly.

Diversification reduces risk most of the time, but we assume all assets are linked and eventually correlate.

It is critical to have both a brain and a gut; the ability to find an edge, and the fortitude to trade it aggressively.

Profitable opportunities are best entered in the earliest stage of latent power being converted to energy. Too soon is a waste of capital, too late involves too much risk.

Virtually all long-term strategies are positioned to simply ride the tailwinds of rising prices. It is imperative to have methods to protect us from both headwinds and crosswinds to avert disaster.

Treat volatility as a psychological risk to be managed into an ally, not as a financial measure of risk to obsess over.

Basic principles for Traders

  
  Education
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Many of you spend too much time worrying about things like other peoples trading signals, what price pattern it is you are looking at, which strike price to select, how to read implied volatility, etc when you haven’t constructed the basic tenets of portfolio management or asset allocation.

Shame on you.

To your defense, I can’t make any assumptions when I have no idea what your time frame is, what your financial standing is, your risk tolerance, your investing objectives, or anything else looks like about you. What I do know is this… I don’t care who you are or what you are trying to accomplish, you will not last long in the pursuit of becoming a decent trader without creating a firm foundation of these basic principles, which are…

Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.

Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.

Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.

Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.

Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.

Letting Winners Run- Don’t kill your winners.

Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

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