ACCEPTANCE OF OFTENTIMES ILLOGICAL MARKET BEHAVIOR
DISCIPLINE IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
PATIENCE WHEN LITTLE IS TO BE ACCOMPLISHED OTHERWISE
FOCUS ON THE RIGHT NOW INSTEAD OF WHAT MIGHT BE
PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR EVERY ACTION AND REACTION
PASSION WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS
MAKING MONEY WHEN WRONG
In trading focus is crucial. You have to know who you are as a trader and exactly what your method and trading plan is, and you must follow it. In trading discipline makes money, focus makes money, monster stocks make money, while risk management allows you to keep the money that you have made. You could say you must be finicky to be a good trader.
Here are the areas to be finicky about:
Discipline trumps conviction. Don’t let your bad trades turn into investments.
Perception is reality in the market. Adapt your style to the market, and learn to accept the market as it is, not how you wish it was.
Play great defense, not great offense. Opportunities are made up easier than losses.
Don’t confine your thinking in terms of boundaries. Expect the extreme, and don’t miss major profit opportunities.
Know your companies. Hold your stock as long as it is performing properly, cut your losses fast, and don’t “hope” for a rebound.
Risk control is important. Always quantify your risk going into a trade.
Be diligent and thorough in your research. Do your homework, recap each day, and learn from your mistakes.
Don’t get caught in a situation in which you could lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand.
Respect the price action, but never defer to it. When unsure, trade “in between.”
Emotion is the enemy when trading. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
There’s really just two rules:
1) If I have an edge – take a position.
2) When the edge is no longer there – get out.
It doesn’t matter what my entry point was and it doesn’t matter how much I’ve gained or lost on the trade. When the edge is no longer there, I shouldn’t be either. And when it is there – I should stay in the trade. This actually requires some discipline because there’s always a temptation to bail when it begins to go against you and there’s also always a temptation to try for too much when things are going your way.
The reason I bring this up was to share with you two reactions I got when describing these recent trades and cash holdings. I had two separate conversations in July — one with a well known Trader, the other with a Fund Manager (known in the industry, but not a household name) — about our posture prior to yesterday’s drop.
The two responses were polar opposites, 180 degree apart.
The trader respected the discipline of honoring stop losses. Good traders know that opportunistic speculation is a process. Ignore any one single outcome, focus on the methodology that can consistently avoid catastrophic losses, manage risk, preserve capital. A good process can be replicated, a random spin of the wheel cannot.
The fund manager, who was having a decent year being long high vol names (at least before Wednesday), was having none of it. “Stops are for losers” is a quote I shall long remember (and email him after he blows up). Apparently, real men have the courage of their convictions.
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Rather than fight our foibles, people should admit this error stream is real, and repair the errors of our ways as soon as we discover them. I have noticed over the years the difficulty some people have in cutting losses, admitting an error, and moving on. Way back in 2005, I wrote a piece advising investors that they should Expect to Be Wrong (originally published 04/05/05). I noted that “I am rather frequently — and on occasion, quite spectacularly — wrong.” However, if we expect to be wrong, then there will be no ego tied up in admitting the error, honoring the stop loss, and selling out the loser — and preserving the capital.
This is a recipe for investing disaster. We humans make 6 billion errors per day, at the very least. The biggest one is not acknowledging this simple truism.
“When you see a position that is going against you and the market is dropping, and you are losing money on a trade, but your stop loss hasn’t been hit yet, how do you stay with the position? What is your secret? Do you pullback and look at the big picture or do you simple assume its all noise as long as it doesn’t hit that lower low? This is my biggest problem with tracking your trades and most of the time you are right in holding on.” … Because we thought our answer to his question may be beneficial to other traders as well, we wanted to share our reply to his e-mail, which was… “The key point you stated is ‘but your stop loss hasn’t been hit yet.’ When we put on a trade, it’s like entering into a contract, so we try to stay the course and simply follow the plan. Over the years, we’ve found it’s best to stick with our original analysis because we usually plan a trade at night, or in the pre-market, without the stress of live trading. During the trading session, in the heat of the moment, there is so much pressure that we have to fight the voice in our heads telling us to sell the position when everything around is crumbling. It basically comes down to planning the trade and trading the plan…easier said than done, right? Sometimes, if you have a feeling things are going bad, and you’re an active trader, you can maybe sell 1/4 or 1/3 of the position to ease your mind. However, you must have the discipline to get back in once the coast is clear. Try to lay out a plan, write it on paper, and stick to it. The one thing every trader must accept, in order to be successful, is a loss. You must be fully prepared to lose what you’re risking. Once you accept losses as part of the trading game, the pressure to be right is not so intense. By the way, we at ASR are no different; we fight the same urges to sell that most traders do. It’s a constant battle, that’s for sure!” |
Trading is one of the most difficult profession, winning traders have business plans. They have set of rules and guidelines to help keep their ship sailing in the right direction. Business plan in trading would cover time spend to study markets and trading, techniques and strategies to focus on, systems to use, expenses involved, maximum loss per trade, maximum drawdown, objectives and goals, etc. Best traders keep revisiting there business plans and change them when necessary, improving it with each iteration. Last but not least, the most important trait you would see in all successful traders is discipline. Without discipline no trader could be competent, because knowing in not the same as doing. Competence means that one has progressed beyond knowing what to do, to doing what one knows. Discipline makes trader competent.
Over trading is one of the biggest causes why traders never make it in the financial markets. With a click of a button, a trader can place a trade anytime he wants. It takes tremendous discipline to hold yourself back from over trading. There are many reasons why one may choose to over trade.
1. Traders without a plan
Traders without a plan are my favorite type of traders because they will always lose. Without a plan, how would one know when to take a trade and when not to? Having a trading plan is a necessity. I can not trade if I do not have a plan for the day. I feel lost without one.
2. Revenge trading
Many new traders become tilted after a loss or a string of losses. This causes them to revenge trade just to break even. This often leads to reckless trading forcing a trade when opportunity is low.
3. Chasing the markets
Alot of new traders feel more pain when they have missed a move than an actual loss. This is why new traders love to chase the markets. If price has moved away from your projected entry point, let it go. There are plenty of more opportunities. Chasing is one of the worst habits a trader can have. Not only does it offer you low rewards, it also gives you a horrible entry and alters your stop loss placement. Always think about the risk before the profits.
When you have a plan to follow, it is easy to filter out bad trades from good one. This keeps you discipline and selective in your trades. I personally do not like trading more than 5 round trips a day. Patience is a virtue. There are always good high probability trading opportunities everyday. Just sit tight and don’t jump the gun.
One way to control a loss is by reducing your size. The problem with gamblers is that they will often double up their stake so they can get even quicker. This usually leads to a greater loss and devastation. Having the strength to grind your way back from a loss is important in trading. Whenever I am having a losing streak, I will trade small and gradually recover. This also gives me the confidence I need after a string of losses.
All successful day traders need discipline, once you have a plan stick to it. When day trading you can lose money as well as make money, as losses can result in an end to your career you need to manage your risks, know where to set your limits and stop loss orders accordingly. Once you have met your objectives do what you planned don’t let greed or fear take control of you.
Day trading involves being passionate about the market, a good day trader never switches off tracking the market day in and day out following news globally, analysing charts and looking at quote screens. This all has to be processed as quickly as possible, this is of course is what will give a good day trader an edge.
“So far in 2009, what are the the most important thing I had learned about investing, trading, and/or the markets?”
Success takes longer than expected
- That you must learn to trade and trust yourself and not to become so dependent on the opinions of others, which ultimately keeps you from becoming the best you can be
- Keep it simple
- The very best profit opportunities occur in the midst of extreme emotional sentiment
- Always think opportunistic verses too bullish or bearish
- Persistence and dedication to a daily routine is key
- Developing an edge is the first step for trading successfully. Without that, disciplined trading will only make sure you gradually losing money
- The market is one unforgiving bitch!
- It is challenging to find non-correlated markets
- You have to respect the market even if you think it is under some kind of manipulation
- Keep your eyes open and powder dry
- If you fall in love with a stock keep 100 shares and let the rest go
- I’ve learned to be patient in waiting for my patterns to appear
- The value of ETFs
- The importance of finding special situations that will be profitable no matter what the market does
- Stay away from light volume when the only thing trading is the black boxes
- The importance of focusing only on one technical setup in order to improve one’s skill set
- I now think that buy and hold is a serious mistake
- Think big and think long term
- Don’t try to predict the markets
- Don’t be afraid in bear markets, just another opportunity
- The odds are stacked against the retail investor
- There’s no such thing as a sure thing
- The harder I work at it the more likely I am to succeed
- Conserving one’s capital is vital
- I know the rules – I just need to notch-up my discipline
- Smaller entry positions can be helpful
- Opportunities are everywhere
- The market is primarily psychologically driven
- Trade with the trend instead of trying to pick tops and bottoms
- Know where and when to get out before you get in
- As Johny Cash put it “You got to walk that lonesome valley, you got walk it by yourself. Nobody else can walk it for you. You got to walk it by yourself.”
- The difficulty of avoiding over-optimization/curve fitting
- Overtrading can be, and often is, a recipe for disaster
- To breathe before executing a trade
- Trading is not a profession for pessimists
- Never feel confident even when winning. Humility is a good thing
- You need to be quick and brutal with the trading decisions
- It is okay to sit out a potential move – risk management over reward chasing
- Don’t bet the farm in either direction
- There is no consistent logic to trading the market
- Some trades need to be taken when they appear, not just when you are ready
- There’s no rule that quality stocks must go up
- Don’t chase any overbought stocks
- When a sector (like financials) look so hopeless as it did in March there is potential to make a lot of money if things turn around even just a little
- Hope is a four-letter word and has no place in a trading strategy
- Patience. It is ok to sit out once in awhile
- Wait until you have an proven strategy supported by data before trading for keeps
Anything can happen. Trading is all about probabilities
Technically Yours-ANIRUDH SETHI ,BARODA ,INDIA
The reason I bring this up was to share with you two reactions I got when describing these recent trades and cash holdings. I had two separate conversations in July — one with a well known Trader, the other with a Fund Manager (known in the industry, but not a household name) — about our posture prior to yesterday’s drop.