Confidence can be an important psychological tool for the trader – important enough to make the difference between a winning trade and a losing trade. When you develop your trading plan, it is obviously important that you have confidence in its accuracy and usefulness and in your belief that you can follow your plan closely and execute it successfully.
Often, traders fall into a mental “I know it all” trap, where they use their confidence to nurture their ego instead of using it to be appropriately decisive in their trading and investing decisions. Such misplaced confidence can be crippling to trading success, because any potential influence from the environment (media, others’ opinions, etc.) that could sway the trader from sticking to his trading plan will have far more power. When a trader is caught in this type of trap, his ability to question his opinions and ideas diminishes. If his initial reaction to a suggestion is to accept it, he loses the capacity to question his acceptance; and if his initial reaction is to disagree, then he loses the capacity to question his disagreement, which can cause even the slightest suggestions from news, colleagues, and other influential sources to be magnified in the trader’s psyche. (more…)
Archives of “confidence” tag
rssEffectiveness Is the Measure of Truth
In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.
Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss.
When you choose effectiveness as your measure of truth, you can learn from your mistakes. You can make plans, take action, receive feedback, and assess the results. You can revise your plans, take new actions, receive new feedback, on and on, until you find a viable strategy that will work most of the time.
When you fear loss, when greed overcomes you, when you get reckless, or when you hesitate, you become grossly ineffective. When you’re confused or ambivalent yet think you need to take action, you do yourself no good. In each case you need to sort through your thoughts, develop a clear focus, search for the high probabilities, and take prompt and calm action. (more…)
Optimism & Pessimism
Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic. Optimism can be a speculator’s enemy. It feels good and is dangerous for that reason. It produces a clouding of judgment. It can lead you into a venture with no exits. Even when there is an exit, optimism can persuade you not to use it. |
3 Key Lessons For All Traders
Don’t Confuse the Concepts of Winning and Losing Trades with Good and Bad Trades
A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money.
Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money.
If You Are Out of Sync with the Markets, Trying Harder Won’t Help
When trading is going badly, trying harder is often likely to make matters even worse. If you are in a losing streak, the best action may be to step away from the markets. Clark advises that the best way to handle a losing streak is to liquidate everything and take a vacation. A physical break can serve to interrupt the downward spiral and loss of confidence that can develop during losing periods. Clark further advises that when trading is resumed, the size should be kept small until confidence is regained.
The Road to Success Is Paved with Mistakes
Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, strongly believes that learning from mistakes is essential to improvement and ultimate success. Each mistake, if recognized and acted upon, provides an opportunity for improving a trading approach. Most traders would benefit by writing down each mistake, the implied lesson, and the intended change in the trading process. Such a trading log can be periodically reviewed for reinforcement. Trading mistakes cannot be avoided, but repeating the same mistakes can be, and doing so is often the difference between success and failure.
GEMS from :The Daily Trading Coach
The Daily Trading Coach covers just about any psychology or behavioral issue the trader may face. I cannot help but recommend it. There are 101 lessons here divided into 10 chapters. Let’s dig into each chapter and uncover a gem within.
Today again completed reading this Book…Yes 5th time !!
1. The Process and the Practice: “Confidence doesna’t come from being right all the time: it comes from surviving the many occasions of being wrong” (27).
2. Stress and Distress: “Thinking positively or negatively about performance outcomes interfere with the process of performing. When you focus on the doing, the outcomes take care of themselves” (56).
3. Psychological Well-Being: “We can recognize the happy trader because he is immersed in the process of trading and finds fulfillment from the process even when markets are not open” (72).
4. Steps Toward Self-Improvement: “Your trading strengths can be found in the patterns that repeat across successful trades” (105).
5. Breaking Old Patterns: “Many trading problems are the result of acting out personal dramas in markets” (133)
6. Remapping the Mind: “When we change the lenses through which we view events, we change our responses to those events” (168)
7. Learn New Action Patterns: “Find experienced traders who will not be shy in telling you when you are making mistakes. In their lessons, you will learn to teach yourself” (203)
8. Coaching Your Trading Business: “Long before you seek to trade for a living, you should work at trading competence: just breaking even after costs” (230)
9. Lessons From Trading Professionals: “If you don’t trust yourself or your methods, you will not find the emotional resilience to weather periods of loss” (267)
10. Looking For the Edge: “The simplest [trading] patterns will tend to be the most robust” (311).
And a final admonition: “Know what you do best. Build on strengths. Never stop working on yourself. Never stop improving. Every so often, upset the apple cart and pursue wholly new challenges. The enemy of greatness is not evil; it’s mediocrity. Don’t settle for mediocre” (341).
Which type of trader?
Which type of trader?
Please which one of the following belong to you?
there are many type of traders, an awareness of the varieties allows you to avoid the pitfalls.
THE DISCIPLINED TRADER.
This is the ideal type of trader, you take your profits and loses with ease, you focus on your system and follow it with discipline.Trading is usually a relax activity,you appreciate that a loss does not make you a looser.
THE DOUBTER.
you find it difficult to execute at signals, you doubt your won abilities.You need to develop confidence.Perhaps you should paper trade.
BLAMER
All losses are someones else ‘s fault, you blame bad fills, your broker for picking the phone up to slowly , our system for not being perfect, you need to regain your objectivity and self-responsibility.
VICTIM
You blame yourself, you feel the market is out to get you, you start becoming superstitious in your trading.
OPTIMIST.
You start thinking it’s only money , ill make it back later. you think all losses will bounce back to profits, or that you will start trading properly tomorrow.
GAMBLER.
You are in for the trill, Money is a side issue. Risk and reward analysis hardly figure in your trade, You want to be a player, want the buzz and excitement.
TIMID.
You enter a trade, but panic at the sight of a profit and take it far to soon, Fear rules your trading.
What enables a trader to exit every trade the same way, with confidence?
- Preparation: If you put yourself in the best possible position and you lose money at least you spent that money wisely. Good things happen to those that are prepared because 90% of people do not know how to do it or are unwilling.
- Purpose: Acting with purpose. You prepared, you knew the risks, you executed the way you wanted to execute. In cold blooded evaluation you would do it the same with the information you had at the time.
- Protection: Losing the invisible money is how I have seen many people blow up. Invisible money is not locking in profits or losing more than your plan allowed. If you lose what you intended to risk you own the trade, if you lose more the trade owns you.
Your goal as a trader is to always reduce the time it takes to analyze, react, and recover. The best traders do this effortlessly after much thought, experiment, and practice. I lacked confidence because I thought about the wrong things or not at all and I was doing random things all of which made it too costly, emotionally and financially, to practice.
Three of Buffett’s rules
- Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on. - The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.
The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying. - The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.
You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.
10 Points -Why Traders lose Money
Not honoring your original stops. Big losses make winning systems losing ones.
- Quit trading it during draw downs. All systems have losing streaks, the key is to manage risk and stick to it until the system gets make to a winning streak.
- Lack of discipline, drifting from taking defined entries and exit signals to opinions is hazardous.
- Trading too big, no system can survive huge positions sizing that makes the first string of losses the last.
- Style drift is deadly, slowly changing your trading plan during active trades is not good. Research comes after hours and before changes are made. (more…)
Marty Schwartz- Trading Quotes
The marketplace is an arena and other traders are the adversaries. I turned from a loser to a winner when I was able to separate my ego needs from making money. When I was able to accept being wrong. Before that, admitting I was wrong was more upsetting than losing the money. When I became a winner I went from ‘I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong’ to ‘I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade.’ By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss. If I make a mistake, so what! My attitude is: Never risk your family’s security. Whenever you get hit, you are very upset emotionally. Most traders try to make it back immediately; they try to play bigger. Whenever you try to get all your losses back at once, you are most often doomed to fail. After a devastating loss, I always play very small and try to get black ink, black ink. It’s not how much money I make, but just getting my rhythm and confidence back. Before taking a position always know the amount you are willing to lose. The most important thing is money management, money management, money management. Anybody who is successful will tell you the same thing. I always take my losses quickly. That is probably the key to my success. The best advice I can give to the ordinary guy trying to become a better trader is Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand. |