Gerald Loeb’s Market Wisdom
1. The most important single factor in shaping security markets is public psychology.
2. To make money in the stock market you either have to be ahead of the crowd or very sure they are going in the same direction for some time to come.
3. Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.
4. The difference between the investor who year in and year out procures for himself a final net profit, and the one who is usually in the red, is not entirely a question of superior selection of stocks or superior timing. Rather, it is also a case of knowing how to capitalize successes and curtail failures.
5. One useful fact to remember is that the most important indications are made in the early stages of a broad market move. Nine times out of ten the leaders of an advance are the stocks that make new highs ahead of the averages.
6. There is a saying, “A picture is worth a thousand words.” One might paraphrase this by saying a profit is worth more than endless alibis or explanations. . . prices and trends are really the best and simplest “indicators” you can find.
7. Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed.
8. Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.-
9. In addition to many other contributing factors of inflation or deflation, a very great factor is the psychological. The fact that people think prices are going to advance or decline very much contributes to their movement, and the very momentum of the trend itself tends to perpetuate itself.
10. Most people, especially investors, try to get a certain percentage return, and actually secure a minus yield when properly calculated over the years. Speculators risk less and have a better chance of getting something, in my opinion.
11. I feel all relevant factors, important and otherwise, are registered in the market’s behavior, and, in addition, the action of the market itself can be expected under most circumstances to stimulate buying or selling in a manner consistent enough to allow reasonably accurate forecasting of news in advance of its actual occurrence.
12. You don’t need analysts in a bull market, and you don’t want them in a bear market
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rss3 Types of Traders
Three popular trading personality types are intuitive, data oriented, and impulsive.
The data-oriented trader focuses on concrete evidence and is often very risk averse. They seek out as much supporting data for a trading decision as possible. The trader who prefers to do extensive back-testing of a trading idea exemplifies data-oriented type. Consider incorporating elements of data oriented trader personality into your trading style regardless of your natural inclinations. Make sure you have adequate information (a reason) before executing a trade. Particularly important is to have and trade a detailed trading plan in which risk is minimized and entry and exit strategies are clearly specified. Most often however, the data-oriented trader may take things a little too far. Searching for “the perfect” knowledge that just doesn’t exit in the trading world. At some point, one must accept the fact that he or she is taking a chance and no amount of data analysis can change this fact.
The intuitive trader is the opposite of the data-oriented trader. Trading decisions are based upon hunches and impressions rather than on clearly defined data. There’s a difference between being an intuitive trader who develops this style over time and one who is naturally intuitive. The experienced intuitive trader, bases decisions on data and specific market information. But, as a seasoned trader, analyzes the data quickly and efficiently. It happens so quickly that it seems like it occurs intuitively, but it is actually based on solid information. Ideally, all traders should gain extensive experience to the point where sound decisions are made with an intuitive feel.
A third trader personality type is the impulsive trader (gambler). This is the most dangerous style. The impulsive trader allows his or her decisions to adversely influence trading decisions. Rather than looking at information logically and analytically, information is discounted completely. The impulsive trader seeks out risk and enjoys taking risky, exciting trades. Impulsive traders can often make huge profits one day and see large draw downs the next. Your personality can have a huge influence on your trading performance. Identify your assets and liabilities, and work around your personality when it is necessary.
10 Things A Trader Can Know
While we can’t know where prices will go, what the next breaking news will be, or how much profit we will make in our next winning trade there are a few things we can know:
We can know how big of a position we will take on our next entry.
We have to know where price will go to prove us wrong and cause us to exit a trade. You have to know where you are getting out before you get into a trade.
We should know how much we could lose if our trade goes against us and we are stopped out.
We should know the highest probability entries that we would take.
We should know the watch list that we will be trading from and not take any wild card trades before understanding chart patterns and historical price performance.
We should know what our total portfolio risk is at any one time if all our positions turn into losers at the same time.
We should understand how the leverage works before we trade futures or option contracts.
We should understand the potential maximum draw down of a string of losers based on our position sizing and winning percentage.
We should know whether the market we are trading is in an up trend or a down trend in our time frame.
We should always have a trading plan that tells us what to do based on what the market is doing. We should know how to react to each days price action based on our current positions.
The Difference: Mediocrity vs. Greatness
In Trading, the STATISTICS show that smarts, experience, etc. are not the differentiating factor.
The BEST (most successful guys I know and work with) have winning %’s of less than 50%.. actually, the average is between 45-55% but the point is, basically, winning percentages don’t matter – so they might as well be a random event.
So, what does make a difference?
- CONVICTION in ideas
- INTERNAL CONFIDENCE
- TRUSTING YOURSELF
- GETTING BIG IN TRADES you believe in
- LETTING WINNERS RUN
- CUTTING LOSERS QUICKLY
- SWITCHING DIRECTIONS QUICKLY
These are many of the factors that allow some people to become monster traders over time. It’s not my opinion, just my observations.
Thought For A Day
Thought For A Day
Thoughts on The Psychology of Speculation by Henry Howard Hopper
Thoughts on the Psychology of Speculation by Henry Howard Hopper published in 1926 and then reprinted by Fraser Publishing Company.
The book is excellent on many different levels. I like most that it talks about encompassing principles of human nature. Not the trivial made up ones of behavioral economics but broad human tendencies that are crucial to how we make our decisions and go about living our life.
Included among these broad human tendencies is the tendency to go crazy when you see a massive flow in front of you like the many who commit suicide in Niagara falls after seeing the water flow and the many who lose their minds as the market goes up. Also paramount is the incredible ennui that a human feels when something that he formerly owned goes thru the roof in other hands. I also like the many market periods of boom and bust he covers including the fantastic bull market of 1915 in the middle of the war where stocks of many a sage speculator was short skyrocketed by 15 fold or more. “He did not live to see General Motors at 850 on October 25, 1916,” as his broker was forced to sell him out well before hand and “he had crossed the bar into the great beyond”.
Like my father’s experience in the Bowerey where he had to cart the bodies away when they couldn’t pay the rent after dying from gambling, “the widow was left almost penniless and he was buried at the expense of the lodge”. I like also the colorful vivid language so characteristic of the roaring 20s that makes on wish one was there and feel for the every emotion that he elicits.
I like best the last words he repeats of a short seller who made a fortune in leather goods and then lost it in the market through shorting. “In the past year I’ve suffered every torment known to the demons of hell. My only grain of comfort is that it’s all over now and I have nothing more to lose.” From this tragic experience, the author concludes “there is but little comfort or profit to be gained on the short side of a protracted bull market”. (more…)
Thought For A DAY
Consistency is the Key
Consistency is an essential component for a successful trading career. This is how you achieve confidence and become comfortable with “riding a trading bike”.
Psychological comfort is the key to a long term trading career and is achieved by becoming consistent with small profits. If you can make consistent $ per day: it can be increased drastically within a year and become exponential in long term.
When I hear from students that their goal is ”to make a lot of money“, I always emphasize that there are few essential steps that must be achieved prior : building confidence by achieving consistency with small lot size is the step that cannot be skipped. (more…)
3 Habits every trader must avoid.
Not having a plan. Get a plan, who cares if it is bad, start with something. You can build off of it and refine it. You have to be willing to spend the time to make the plan yours. You do not start anything without some level of planning. Trading is hard; your brain spends a lot of time in fast forward, affecting your memory. You can slow it down by having a plan and increase your brains ability to remember. A plan makes it possible to improve. Most importantly, a plan gives you a chance at removing emotion.
Forgetting why you are trading. The purpose of trading is to make money. Every action should bend to that goal. That does not mean every trade makes money. It means every trade gets to closer. If you are looking for comfort, get a teddy bear. If you are looking to be right, play trivial pursuit. If you want excitement, drive fast.
Letting it go. It is really important to separate what happened from how you felt. The more distance between the two the less time it takes to learn from that situation. Admitting you made a mistake or are wrong are necessary for letting it go. Unlike life, you get no credit for admitting you are wrong, it is just a part of trading. Neither matter unless you take action.