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Dan Gilbert on Synthesizing Happiness (Producing Sour Grapes)

Some quick points from the talk:

  • The prefrontal cortex is an experience simulator, it can simulate something happening in the future, so that you can assess different choices to make decisions.
  • However humans have an impact bias, i.e. we tend to overestimate the hedonic impact of future events (i.e. we are bad at predicting how we will feel in the future). A recent study on major life traumas show that if it happened over 3 months ago, with a few exceptions, it has almost no impact whatsoever on your happiness.
  • Humans have a psychological immune system, a system of largely non-conscious cognitive processes that help them change their views of the world, so that they can feel better about the world they are in. We ‘synthesize’ happiness.
    • Natural happiness is what we get when we get what we wanted. Synthetic happiness is what we make when we don’t get what we wanted. Synthetic happiness is every bit as real and enduring as natural happiness.
    • When people were asked to choose to take home 1 of 2 items, in their minds, the desirability of the one they chose goes up, and the desirability of the one they did not get goes down, i.e. they synthesized happiness. The same results appeared when the experiment was done with amnesiacs, 4-year-olds, and monkeys (link to NYT article here). By putting down the thing that they cannot get (‘sour grapes’), they carry on with their lives rather than wasting energy agonizing over the past choices.
  • Freedom to choose, is the friend of natural happiness, but is the enemy of synthetic happiness. When we have no choice and are totally stuck, our psychological immune systems kicks in to synthesize happiness.Our longings and worries are both, to some degree, overblown, because we have the capacity to manufacture the very commodity that we can constantly chasing when we choose among experiences.
    • If you made a choice, but you know that you can easily reverse your choice, you will agonize over whether you made the right choice, and end up not feeling satisfied with what you have. If you cannot reverse your choice, you will like what you had chosen a lot.

 

Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction

“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…

“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.

“For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.

“Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behaviors. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”

– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards (more…)

Legacy of Benjamin Graham- Video

Last week I stumbled across this excellent video about Graham which includes old clips from his investment classes as well as some of his former students (including Warren Buffett, Rob Brandes and Irving Kahn) giving interviews about the effect the legendary investor had on them:

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