Latest Posts

rss

European Debt And Credit Crisis Video Explanation

  
Education, Video
#  #  #  #  #  #

Have come across this video on Europe and the Euro problems quite a few times during the last few days: ‘Clarke and Dawe ask the million dollar question’. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, enjoy. The video speaks for itself. No further comment needed.



Lessons for traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #
  • Price goes up or down, from point A to point B, due to fundamental conditions. Hence we must understand fundamentals. However, the path price takes is not direct; it is driven by the news and emotions of the day. That’s where technical analysis shines.
  • Don’t bet big on any trade.
  • Use money management, nothing is more important to survival.
  • Fade the advisors and public; they are most often wrong while the commercials [the big guys] are most often correct.
  • Don’t let emotions run your trading game.
  • Trade what you see, not what someone tells you that you should be seeing. Forget the news; trade what you see.

Four Keys to Understanding Uncertainty

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1) Uncertainty is always subjective. It is a state of mind that is derived from a mix of objective data, emotions and personal experience. To say that the market is always equally uncertain is to say that mood is always the same. It is not. It constantly changes.

If the perceived uncertainty is always the same, earnings reports would not have such huge impact on prices. We all know that this is not the case. In many cases, earnings reports provide new data that changes market expectations and therefore prices. Options premium is higher before earnings exactly because uncertainty is higher.

2) Uncertainty has become a synonym for bad mood in our everyday life.

The future is always uncertain, but our perceptions of the future vary. And perceptions define actions. Actions (supply and demand) define prices. Somehow uncertainty is used with a highly negative connotation in our everyday life. It is a game of words. Just like the weather people always say that there is a 30% chance of rain and never that there is 70% chance of sun.

3) Uncertainty is basically another word for market sentiment. High levels of perceived uncertainty (bad mood) and high levels of perceived certainty (good mood) have historically been good contrarian indicators, IF your investing horizon is long enough.

4) There are different types of uncertainty.

There is an economic uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to a decline in economic activity. Less people are hired. Old machines and software licences are used longer. Investments are cut. This is what it has been happening in Europe for 2 years.

You might be a bad trader if……….

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

There are young people in the market that are really bad traders and there is also old traders that are very good, but there are no old bad traders in the market because they went broke and gave up a long time ago.

You might be a bad trader if……….

…your primary method is to try to call tops and pick bottoms.

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.”  -Bernard Baruch

 You might be a bad trader if……….

…instead of benefiting from the 200 point run in Apple this year you actually lost money by fighting the trend.

“Cardinal Rule #1 is to sell short only during what you believe is a developing bear market, not a bull market.” -William O’Neil (more…)

Go to top