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Symptoms of fear- For Traders

  • Jumping into unplanned trades because you fear being left out 
  • Hesitate in pulling the trigger because you fear the prospects of a loss 
  • Cut winners short in fear of giving prof its back, affected by noise 
  • Hang on to losing trades because you fear taking the real loss 
  • Feeling helpless about trading results 
  • Fear of missing out on trade 
  • Afraid to pull the trigger on a trade

     

    Feeling paralyzed once in a trade 
  • Living in denial about results 
  • Rationalizing poor results 
  • Chasing big moves only to find you bought top and sold low 
  • Not taking stops 
  • Take small gains to “catch up”, market leaves you behind
  • Winners turn to losers and then you get out 
  • Wanting to get back at market 
  • Experiencing large mood swings; big highs, deep lows, anger and /or depression

Difference between trading and gambling?

Gambling is, usually, an event with:

  • Limited duration
  • Finite upside
  • Finite downside
  • Binary outcome

When you gamble you either win or lose. That event usually takes only a small amount of time.

For example, you can bet on a horserace 10 minutes before it starts and 5 minutes later you have a result. For anyone who plays poker, you know it may take a little bit more time as the stakes are raised. So poker is a little bit closer to trading.

In gambling your risk on any event is usually what you outlay. And your potential return is what the house is offering at the time you agree to the bet.

I love to play blackjack (and for some reason, while I don’t play often, I have been profitable almost every time I’ve played in the last 3 years) like one of my trading mentors who was an original Turtle Trader.

A bet on a Blackjack table can take a minute or two until it’s over. Whereas in trading, a trade has the following characteristics: (more…)

James Montier's 7 Immutable Laws Of Investing

1. Always insist on a margin of safety
2. This time is never different
3. Be patient and wait for the fat pitch
4. Be contrarian
5. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number
6. Be leery of leverage
7. Never invest in something you don’t understand

The Stimulus Packages Will Soon Lose Its Influence

“I am not sure yet that the recession is already over because the numbers of unemployed persons in the United States is still increasing and there are several indicators that barely suggest a rebound on the economy , I think that also this year it will not get better because the stimulus packages will already lose its influence So I could imagine that we would not have a basic rebound and that the markets will rather correct.”

translated from a german TV video interview, April 2010

Difference


In Trading, the STATISTICS show that smarts, experience, etc. are not the differentiating factor.
The BEST (most successful guys I know and work with) have winning %’s of less than 50%.. actually, the average is between 45-55% but the point is, basically, winning percentages don’t matter – so they might as well be a random event.

 So, what does make a difference?  

  • CONVICTION in ideas
  • INTERNAL CONFIDENCE
  • TRUSTING YOURSELF
  • GETTING BIG IN TRADES you believe in
  • LETTING WINNERS RUN
  • CUTTING LOSERS QUICKLY
  • SWITCHING DIRECTIONS QUICKLY

 These are many of the factors that allow some people to become monster traders over time. It’s not my opinion, just my observations. 

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