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Week Eight

Lots of back and forth this week, but not much progress in either direction!

SPX-WEEKLY

At the end of the both February and the 8th trading week of the year, here is where we now stand:

  • Dow: -0.74% this week & -0.99% for year

  • S&P 500: -0.42% this week & -0.95% this year

  • Nasdaq: -0.25% this week & -1.36% this year

  • Russell 2000: -0.48% this week & +0.51% this year

It was also a very positive February overall with +2% gains in both the S&P & Dow and +4% gains in the Nasdaq & Russell. In fact, following impressive +3% gains in week seven, the market refused to roll over or give much ground this week.

Follow Trends

From Richard Russell:

Primary trends can be likened to the power of the ocean tides. Build a sand castle against the ocean tide, and the first wave will wash your castle away. Build a cement wall against the tide, and in a matter of years the cement wall will be reduced to sand and rubble…primary trends, one way or another, go to completion. Or to put it another way, a primary trend will go to completion, no matter what..I said from the beginning, “let the bear market fully express itself.” One way or another it will express itself regardless of the wishes of Washington or the Fed or the Treasury. Interfering with the primary trend will just drag out the situation and make it worse — it will be turning a menace into a Frankenstein…According to Dow Theory, neither the depth nor the duration of a bear market can be predicted in advance. In this bear market, the Dow could fall to 4,000 or 400. I honestly don’t know the answer. In my experience, primary trend tend to carry further than anyone expects. I do know this — yesterday the following broke below their June lows — the Dow, the Transports, the NYSE Composite (which includes ALL NYSE stocks), the S&P Composite, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. Any way you look at it, that’s bad action. Maybe just as bad, new lows on the NYSE surged to 164. Hundreds of stocks are breaking down, and even more are hovering just above their 52-week lows. The lower depths of this market are opening up like a giant graveyard. It is said that in a big bear market, stocks return to their original homes — Wall Street.”

Can it happen? Yes. Does anyone know for sure? No. Follow trends.

Marc Faber: Euro Oversold, If S&P Above 1150 Could See 20% Correction

Market: “I’m not so sure that we’ll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don’t think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside.  I think if we make a new high then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don’t forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn’t going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January.”

Currencies:  Euro: “Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you’ve read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there’s nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don’t think there is much good about the Euro either…”

US Dollar: “When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that they’ll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don’t forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro.  Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong”.

Asset Class Right Now:  “Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we’ll have to see further.  In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we’ll get more inflation in due course”.

Dear Traders ,Just see ..What I had forecasted/Written about S&P 500 on 19th ,28th Jan’10 and on 3rd Feb’10

Technically Yours

The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration.” Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: “Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days.” The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches – something big is coming.

As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

  1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
  3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
  5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Today, all five conditions were satisfied. June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron’s pointed out then, “there’s a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor.” Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.

What’s Warren Buffett Buying Now?

warrenbuffet-buyingDon’t miss to read……..

As shares of Berhshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) plunged over the past year, it became fashionable to ask whether or not Warren Buffett had lost his touch.

(See: ETF Guide: Down $16 Billion – Has Warren Buffett Lost His Touch?; MSN Money: The problem with Warren Buffett; Forbes: Has Buffett Lost His Touch; Reuters: Is Warren Buffett losing his touch?)

In June, financial advisor and CNBC contributor Dennis Gartman even called Buffett “an idiot.”

But now that Berkshire has rallied more than 35% from its March lows, the only idiots to be found are those that ever doubted the world’s second-richest man’s business savvy. Indeed, many of the moves Buffett made during last year’s market melee are paying off in a big way. (more…)

Banker got caught looking at nude women on national tv

The announcement that the Reserve Bank had put interest rate rises on hold attracted even more attention during a live Seven News broadcast yesterday when a Macquarie Bank staffer was seen viewing pictures of nude women on his computer.

While broker Martin Lakos was updating Seven newsreader Chris Bath on the rates news, a colleague in the background was seen opening three pictures on his screen.

The bank released a statement last night, saying: “Macquarie has strict policies in place surrounding the use of technology and the issue arising from today’s live cross on Seven News is being dealt with internally.”

DOW :Unexpected levels by 22nd June ?

Watch Unexpected levels on 21st-22nd June’10

101% will not write exact level.

But if DOW closes below 9762 level for 3 Concecutive Days

then watch Bloodbath upto 8864-8565 in next few sessions.

It may go below these levels too.But Iam afraid to write ..But if as per my expectation everything goes write…then next week write more …….

Iam Just watching 9762 level very carefully.

Updated at 12:04/08th June/Baroda

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