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Archives of “March 2021” month
rssDow, S&P close at another record high
Nasdaq lags once again. Russell 2000 also closes at a record
The Dow and the S&P closed at another record high.
- Dow has its best week since November
- Nasdaq index lags once again as the rotation into the major cyclicals continues
- The Russell 2000 also closed at a record level today
The final numbers are showing:
- S&P index, +3.99 points or +0.10% at 3943.33
- NASDAQ index -78.81 points or -0.59% at 13319.86
- Dow industrial average +292.46 points or 0.90% at 32778.05
For the week:
- S&P index rose 2.64%
- Dow Jones industrial average increased by 4.07%
- Nasdaq index rose by 3.09% %
Year to date:
- Dow is now up 7.1%
- S&P is up 4.99%
- Nasdaq is up 3.35%
For the Dow 30 this week, the biggest winner was Boeing. The largest drag was from Coca Cola.
Dow winners for the week:
- Boeing, +20.55%
- Walgreens, +12.73%
- Home Depot, +7.7%
- Goldman Sachs, +6.52%
- Cisco, +5.58%
- Nike, +5.32%
- Visa, +4.12%
- DuPont, +4.11%
- Caterpillar, +4.02%
Dow losers for the week:
- Coca-Cola, -0.85%
- Verizon, -0.64%
- Apple, -0.31%
- salesforce, +0.68%
- American Express, +0.82%
- Amgen, +1.14%
- Procter & Gamble, +1.65%
- Microsoft, +1.81%
- Merck, +2.04%
Other big winners for the week include:
- GameStop, +91.91%
- Koss, +88.16%
- Express, +79.67%
- AMC, +38.39%
- US steel, +30.19%
- Rite Aid +26.44%
- Box, +23.55%
- Nio, was 19.39%
- Tesla, +16.07%
- Airbnb, was 14.78%
- American Airlines, was 14.28%
- Palantir, +12.36%
Some losers this week:
- Raytheon, -17.17%
- GE, -7.5%
- DoorDash, -6.27%
- Goodrx, -5.5%
- Tencent, -5.31%
- Gilead, -4.83%
- Lam research, -4.13%
- Snowflake, -4.07%
- Alphabet, -2.25%
- Boston Scientific, -1.75%
- Micron, -1.3%
- Alibaba, -0.89%
Thought For A Day
Eurozone finance ministers to pledge continued fiscal support on Monday – report
Reuters report, citing a document
Italy is in another lockdown and case are rising in much of the continent as the vaccine rollout lags. Even without all that, those economies would need more fiscal support.
Europe is starting to fall way behind the US and it’s not a good look. Here was a line from the ECB sources story earlier today.
“Biden just came in, the bill has already passed, and the check’s going to be in the mail next week,” one source said. “Look at us in the meantime. We’ve been talking for a year and still nothing will be paid out until maybe October.”
Major European indices end the day with mixed results.
A good week for European equities as they benefit from flow of funds
The major European indices are ending the week with mixed results. The German Dax broke its four day streak that also saw new all time highs being made.
The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, -0.5%
- France’s CAC, +0.2%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.4%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.45%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged
For the week, the major indices are all solidly higher:
- German Dax, +4.18%
- France’s CAC, +4.5%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +1.9%
- Spain’s Ibex, +4.1%
- Italy’s 4.9%
Year to date, all the indices are also higher:
- German Dax, +5.71%
- France’s CAC, +8.87%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +4.62%
- Spain’s Ibex, +6.9%
- Italy’s footsie MIB, +8.4%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the day higher across the board
In the forex, the snapshot of the strongest weakest as London/European traders look to exit shows the CAD is extending its lead to the upside after a trauma than expected jobs report today. The NZD and GBP remain the weakest. The USD is stronger but losing ground vs the CAD.
The Queen’s Spithead Review of the Fleet 1977. That’s some sight!
US stocks set to slide with 10-year yields back over 1.61%
Tech-led selloff underway
US 10-year yields are up 7.5 bps to 1.61%. They had dipped as low as 1.58% in the past hour but have begun moving higher again.
The stock market is far from uniform as the divergence in tech and value continues. Nasdaq futures are almost 2% lower while Russell 2000 futures are fractionally higher. S&P 500 futures are down a modest 14 points after yesterday’s 40 point gain.
This has the feeling of a day when the bond market is in charge and there’s plenty of hand-writing about repo rates but that should sort itself out when this week’s 10-year sale settles on Monday. Beyond that, the worries about the SLR. It’s clear to me the Fed isn’t going to extend the waiver and that presents a risk for Wednesday’s FOMC.
Here’s some background on the SLR from TD:
EURUSD lower on the day but bounces off the 100 hour MA
The run above the 200 hour moving average yesterday fails
The EURUSD moved above its 200 hour moving average yesterday for the first time since February 26, and in the process, extended above the midpoint of the move down from the March high at 1.19739 and a topside channel trendline. However, the high price yesterday stalled near the swing low going back to March 2 at 1.19907 (and also fell short of the 1.2000 level).
In trading today, buyers try to lean against the 200 hour moving average, but could not sustain the bid. When the price correct below the level in the early European market, buyers turn to sellers on the failure and the price moved lower.
The lower channel trendline was ultimately broken but support held against its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). The price has subsequently moved marginally higher off the key support target and as tested the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.19411.
What next?
With the price trading between the 100 hour moving average on the downside at 1.19096 and the 200 hour moving average above at 1.19581, the buyers and sellers are back in a battle for full control. In between the levels sits the 38.2% retracement at 1.19411 which may tilt the bias down or up intraday.
If I were to give a nod to buyers or sellers, the sellers probably have more control. The price move to the upside this week is looking more like a corrective move of the bigger move lower. The price action failed above the 200 hour moving average, and topside trend line. The buyers had their shot. They missed.
Having said that, if the pair is able to extend back above the 200 hour moving average, the landscape changes more in favor of the buyers once again. The bearish tilt, turns more bearish below its 100 hour moving average at 1.19096.
Italy reportedly set to return to lockdown until after Easter
Local media reports on the matter
The lockdown restrictions will also cover Milan and Rome, with non-essential shops to be ordered to close or operate with tight restrictions. Meanwhile, schools are to be closed during the period – which will be until 6 April (after Easter).
With the vaccine rollout progressing rather slowly and virus variants starting to become more rampant, this is a key risk to watch in case other European countries suffer from similar circumstances in the weeks/months ahead.
Dollar gains across the board as Treasury yields surge higher on the session
10-year Treasury yields move up by over 7 bps to 1.61%
The surge higher in yields continues to underpin the dollar today as the greenback rises to fresh highs against the major currencies bloc. Risk assets are being dragged lower as a result but USD/JPY is keeping perky as the pair moves up above 109.00.
Of note, price is now moving towards a test of the week’s high @ 109.23 and keeping a daily break above 109.00 itself will be a massive win for buyers technically.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD has also slipped to a low of 1.1935 (large expiries seen @ 1.1930) while AUD/USD has fallen to a low of 0.7741 to start the session.
On the latter, the pair is moving closer towards a test of its 200-hour moving average @ 0.7737 and that will be a key near-term level to watch in case the downside extends.
Further support is then seen from its 100-hour moving average @ 0.7716.