The run above the 200 hour moving average yesterday fails
The EURUSD moved above its 200 hour moving average yesterday for the first time since February 26, and in the process, extended above the midpoint of the move down from the March high at 1.19739 and a topside channel trendline. However, the high price yesterday stalled near the swing low going back to March 2 at 1.19907 (and also fell short of the 1.2000 level).
In trading today, buyers try to lean against the 200 hour moving average, but could not sustain the bid. When the price correct below the level in the early European market, buyers turn to sellers on the failure and the price moved lower.
The lower channel trendline was ultimately broken but support held against its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). The price has subsequently moved marginally higher off the key support target and as tested the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.19411.
With the price trading between the 100 hour moving average on the downside at 1.19096 and the 200 hour moving average above at 1.19581, the buyers and sellers are back in a battle for full control. In between the levels sits the 38.2% retracement at 1.19411 which may tilt the bias down or up intraday.
If I were to give a nod to buyers or sellers, the sellers probably have more control. The price move to the upside this week is looking more like a corrective move of the bigger move lower. The price action failed above the 200 hour moving average, and topside trend line. The buyers had their shot. They missed.
Having said that, if the pair is able to extend back above the 200 hour moving average, the landscape changes more in favor of the buyers once again. The bearish tilt, turns more bearish below its 100 hour moving average at 1.19096.