Archives of “February 17, 2020” day

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SNB total sight deposits w.e. 14 February CHF 590.1 bn vs CHF 589.6 bn prior

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by SNB – 17 February 2020

  • Domestic sight deposits CHF 504.2 bn vs CHF 503.0 bn prior
Prior week’s release can be found here. A rather minimal increase in overall sight deposits and that continues to suggest limited intervention by the SNB over the past few weeks.
If anything, this reaffirms that they can only slow down the appreciation in the franc and not counteract it altogether by the look of things – or fear incurring the wrath of the US.

China’s NHC says that new coronavirus is preventable and treatable

  
  Analysis

In other words, they are trying to change the public mindset to get the economy back up and running once again

China

Chinese officials are no doubt trying to calm down fears surrounding the situation but one can argue that it is better to be honest and transparent considering this involves the lives of thousands, if not millions of people around the world.
It is certainly preventable if the right measures are taken but all of this comes with a cost – one way or another – and I doubt any of it involves Wuhan or the Hubei province being able to come out of lockdown any time in the near future.
Meanwhile, just take note that WHO experts – including specialists from the US – have arrived in China today and that they will be visiting Beijing, Guangdong and Sichuan for inspections.

Singapore Q4 GDP 1 % y/y (vs expected 0.8 %) – lowers outlook for GDP ahead

  
Analysis, Economy
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Singapore MTI downgrades 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5% to 1.5% (previous forecast 0.5% to 2.5%)

  • Singapore MTI says 2020 GDP expected to come in at around 0.5%, the mid-point of the forecast range
  • Singapore says revising down 2020 growth, exports forecasts due to coronavirus outbreak

More:

  • Q4 manufacturing -5.9% % q/q at annualised, seasonally adjusted rate
  • Q4 services 2.2 % q/q at annualised, seasonally adjusted rate
  • 2019 non-oil domestic exports contract 9.2%
  • Singapore lowers 2020 non-oil domestic exports forecast to -0.5%-1.5% from 0%-2% previously

Japan GDP, preliminary for Q4 2019: -1.6% q/q (vs -1.0% expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Low expectations and even a miss on those.

more to come
GDP sa -1.6% q/q
  • expected -1.0%, prior 0.4%
GDP annualised sa -6.3% q/q … so ugly, biggest fall since 2014
  • expected -3.8%, prior 1.8%
GDP nominal q-1.2% q/q
  • expected -0.6%, prior 0.6%
GDP deflator (an inflation indication) 1.3%
  • expected 1.1%, prior 0.6% … some encouragement for the BOJ?
Private consumption -2.9% q/q
  • expected -2.0% q/q, prior 0.5%
Business spending -3.7% q/q
  • expected -1.6%, prior 1.8%
Just awful GDP numbers. Sales tax and typhoon impact cited.
  • imports fell, first time in 3 quarters
  • exports fell for 2nd consecutive quarter
Just wait for Q1 and the coronavirus impact.

Federal Reserve FOMC January meeting minutes this week – preview

  
Analysis, Economy
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The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published on Wednesday 19 February 2020  at 1900GMT

A couple of snippets on what to expect and look out for, via Scotia.
  • Watch for frequency of citation references to how the committee views downside risks to the outlook
  • Recent references to downside risks have fanned market pricing for easing
  •  (chart 2). During the press conference on January 29th, Powell guided that there had been a Further clues regarding expectations for the mid-year announcement of the strategic review are possible
  • watch for further discussion of the merits of average inflation targeting around a 2% goal
  • balance sheet policy guidance … we might develop a further understanding of the range of FOMC opinions
  • coronavirus and its potential impact. Watch for any further discussion and the range of views on the implications for world and domestic growth and inflation. 
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published on Wednesday 19 February 2020  at 1900GMT

IMF on coronavirus and the global economy – damage this year; sharp, rapid rebound

  
  Analysis
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Comments from International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva over the weekend on the impact on the global economy

  • could damage global economic growth this year
  • a sharp and rapid economic rebound could follow
  • “There may be a cut that we are still hoping would be in the 0.1-0.2 percentage space”
  • full impact of the spreading disease would depend on how quickly it was contained – “I advise everybody not to jump to premature conclusions. There is still a great deal of uncertainty. We operate with scenarios, not yet with projections, ask me in 10 days”
  • If the disease is “contained rapidly, there can be a sharp drop and a very rapid rebound”, in what is known as the V-shape

Japan – Reuters Tankan for Feb shows slight improvement

  
Analysis, Economy

Reuters monthly poll tracks the Bank of Japan’s key tankan quarterly survey

  • Japan manufacturers index -5 in February vs -6 in January
  • non-manufacturers index +15 vs January +14
  • Japan manufacturers May index seen at -5, non-manufacturers +15
One of the comments from the poll of firms:
  • “Just as the domestic economy’s slump following the sales tax hike is becoming evident, the coronavirus spread has made China-bound exports totally unclear”
—
 Reuters poll of 502 large- and mid-sized companies, in which 245 firms replied
  • indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones
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