Mainland China official coronavirus deaths increase by 109, cases up 397 as of end February 21

Updated official figures from China’s National Health Commission

  • Total number of cases (mainland China) as of end February 21 is 76,288 (revised total, there was a mix up in China yesterday with late reporting of cases in prisons)
  • Total deaths 2,345
  • 2,393 patients discharged on Feb 21
A few items over past hours:
  • Italian Newspaper Corrier Della Serra has reported Italy’s first death from the infection
  • Australian authorities report 4 more cases confirmed amongst the cruise ship passengers evacuated into Darwin
  • PBOC vice governor says virus impact on China’s economy will be short-lived and limited (Also says the Bank has policy tools available, yuan will not appreciate nor depreciate by a large margin)
If you’ve been tracking the totals so far (mainland China):

  • Jan 17: 41
  • Jan 19: 62
  • Jan 20: 201
  • Jan 21: 291
  • Jan 22: 440
  • Jan 24: 830
  • Jan 25: 1,287
  • Jan 26: 1,975
  • Jan 27: 2,744
  • Jan 28: 5,974
  • Jan 29: 7,711
  • Jan 30: 9,692
  • Jan 31: 11,791
  • Feb 1: 14,380 (death toll 304)
  • Feb 2: 17,205 (death toll 361)
  • Feb 3: 20,438 (death toll 425)
  • Feb 4: 24,324 (death toll 490)
  • Feb 5: 28,018 (death toll 563)
  • Feb 6: 31,161 (death toll 636)
  • Feb 7: 34,564 (death toll 722)
  • Feb 8: 37,198 (death toll 811)
  • Feb 9: 40,171 (death toll 908)
  • Feb 10: 42,638 (death toll 1,016)
  • Feb 11: 44,653 (death toll 1,113)
  • Feb 12: 59,805 (death toll 1,367)
  • Feb 13: 63,851 total cases. Death toll now 1,380.  6,723 discharged from hospital.
  • Feb 14: NHC reports total cases at 66,492. Deaths on Feb 14 across China were 143, takes the total at 1,523.
  • Feb 15: 68,500, 1,665 dead.
  • Feb 16: 70,548 total cases in mainland China. Deaths up 105 to 1,770
  • Feb 17: Total mainland cases 72,436. Deaths toll is now 1868.
  • Feb 18: Total confirmed coronavirus cases on the mainland 74,185. Total number of deaths is 2,004.
  • Feb 19: Total cases across 74,576, total deaths 2,118
  • Feb 20: Total cases across mainland China 75,465. Total deaths 2,236
  • Feb 21: Total cases across mainland China 76,288. Total deaths 2,345

30 year yield falls to a new all time low

The headline of the day is that the 30 year yield traded to a new all time low of 1.8843%. That took out the August 2019 low yield of 1.9039% and although the yield is closing above that old low, the closing level will be the lowest on record.

Forex news for NY trading on February 21, 2020

Helping the yields move lower is the:

  • Expectation of a cut in US rates by July and potential for another cut later in the year
  • Flight to safety flows
  • Lower global growth from the coronavirus
  • Dollar buying as the US remains a safe haven
  • The Markit Service and Composite PMI data was below the 50.0 level while the manufacturing index was lower than expectations as well.
The 10 year yield also moved lower and approached the swing low from 2019 at 1.4272%. The low yield today reached 1.4359% before rebounding into the close to 1.4700%.  The all time low yield was in 2016 at 1.3180% (see chart below).
The 10 year yield fell below support at 1.50% and looks toward the 2019 low yield at 1.4272%
Below is a table of the current, high and low yields for the US debt along the yield curve.   The 2-10 year spread also flattened to 12.14 basis points from 12.60 basis points yesterday.
The US yields are moving lower.  US stocks today fell with the Nasdaq leading the way down. For the day, the Nasdaq fell -1.79% after being down as much as 2.14% at the low. The S&P index closed down a more modest -1.05% after falling as much as -1.33%.   For the week, the major indices fell with the Dow down -1.46%, the S&P down -1.07% and the Nasdaq index down -1.39%.
Gold was another big mover today and this week. The price of gold is trading up $24.00 or 1.48% at $1643.43. The high for the day reached $1649.26. That was the highest level since February 2013. For the week, the price of gold settled last Friday at $1584. The current price at $1643.43 is a $59.43 gain for the week or 3.75% gain.   Big breakout move for gold this week.
Gold moved up nearly $60 this week
The fall in stocks, rise in gold, fall in yields led to a fall in the USD today. The USD was the weakest of the major currencies today. The strongest currency was the GBP (but it came off the highs in the NY session).   The dollar fell by 0.61% vs the GBP. It also fell versus the EUR by -.59% vs the EUR and -0.58% vs the CHF.

Saudi Arabia energy minister: WSJ story on cuts of output is “absurd and utter nonsense”

WSJ report suggested a potential 300K cut.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz is on the wires in reaction to an earlier Wall Street Journal article saying that they were mulling over a proposed 300K cut in output, says:
  • Media report on Saudi Arabia considering break from OPEC+ alliance “absurd and utter nonsense”
  • We will continue to act in a collective manner
  • Saudi Arabia is in continuous communication and dialogue with all  OPEC and OPEC+ partners
Crude oil futures are currently trading down $0.94 or -1.73% at $52.93. The low for the day reached $52.55. The high for the day was up at $53.86

CFTC Commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase as the price moves lower

Forex futures net positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending February 18, 2020

  • EUR short 92K vs 86K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • GBP long 29K vs 21K long last week. Longs increased by 8K
  • JPY short 27K vs 26K short last week. Shorts increased by 1k
  • CHF long 2K vs 4K long last week. Longs decreased by 2K
  • AUD short 38k vs 33K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 12K vs 4K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • CAD long 8k vs 10K long last week. Longs decreased by 2K

The EUR is the biggest position with the short at -92K from -86K last week. The shorts are winning as the price reached the lowest level since 2017 this week.

Forex futures net positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending February 18, 2020

Major indices close lower. Indices also lower for the week

All-time highs were made but Thursday and Friday selling take the gains away

The major stock indices are ending the day lower with the NASDAQ falling by -1.79%. In a week where the NASDAQ and S&P index made new all-time highs, selling on Thursday and Friday have taken those gains away. The major indices are ending the week lower.

The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average -227.30 points or -0.78% at 28992.68
  • S&P index -35.55 points or -1.05% at 3337.68
  • NASDAQ index -174.38 points or -1.79% at 9576.59.
For the week, the Dow industrial average was the weakest followed closely by the NASDAQ index:
  • Dow industrial average, -1.46%
  • S&P index, -1.07%
  • Nasdaq index -1.39%
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