The wealth in the world.
Archives of “January 18, 2020” day
rssComposition of the income of the richest Americans.
Don’t Fight the Fed
Don’t fight the Fed: an expression another one of these REALLY good-lookin’ kids hailing from the East Side of Cleveland, with just this past week starting to show contraction in total government issues
Rasmussen Numbers; PredictIt
Their sampling of 1,000 Likely Voters taken a week ago shows a slight edge to the Big Orange. 46% think the President will be re-elected; 33% think he will lose to the Democrat and 12% think he will be convicted by the Senate. 9% are unsure. The sample weights a Democrat preponderance 38% to 32% Republican with the remaining 30% as independent. PredictIt shows the same: 52 cents for the Republican candidate to win; 51 cents for the Democrat.
The London Bookies have a very different view.
From Oddschecker:
Donald Trump -110
Joe Biden +500
Bernie Sanders +750
Pete Buttigieg +2000
Elizabeth Warren +2000
Michael Bloomberg +2000
Hillary Clinton +5000
Andrew Yang +5000
The trillion dollar club.
Prices at a 1970s McDonalds
Fitch affirms Germany at AAA with a stable outlook
US natural gas falls below $2 for the first time since 2016
Natural gas prices crater
Mild weather in the US and massive shale production in the US has led to an abundance of natural gas in the US. The aim is to one-day convert it into liquefied natural gas to export but with the wild overproduction in tight oil, there’s no way to liquefy it or transport it. Prices in and around production areas are much lower than $2.
A reckoning is coming to shale soon, and even sooner if crude falls below $50 this year.
The earnings calendar for next week includes Netflix, IBM, Intel, and American Express
A lot of the big names are still ahead but some interesting names reporting next week
Tuesday, January 21
- UBS
- Netflix
- United Airlines
- Capital One
- IBM
Wednesday, January 22
- Abbott
- Johnson & Johnson
- Texas Instruments
Thursday, January 23
- Comcast
- P&G
- Intel
- American Airlines
- Kimberly-Clark
Friday, January 24
- American Express
- synchrony
A look at the best/worst major currencies this week is worrisome
Swiss franc strength isn’t what you expect to see in a run-away week for stocks
It’s rare to see the Swiss franc and Japanese yen at opposite ends of the FX leaderboard. They generally move in the same direction because they’re both low yielders and safe-haven currencies.
So what happened? One argument is that this was a Swiss idiosyncratic move:
- The US added Switzerland to the FX watchlist for manipulation. That diminishes the chances of large-scale intervention
- Technical breaks in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF added to momentum
- Russian political drama added to the bid for CHF
I wouldn’t disagree with any of those factors but it’s still a stark difference. The other argument is that this run-up in risk is driven by leverage from cheap money, retail chasing momentum and year-end effects.
Ultimately, the market will have to answer but I just can’t get behind this run in risk until we see a bit more alignment in equities with FX and bonds.
