Fitch on Japan: Affirms rating at ‘A’ , but lowers its outlook to negative

Fitch Ratings

  • projects Japan’s economy to contract by 5% for full year in 2020, before rebounding to 3.2% growth in 2021
  • fiscal support & expected recovery in external demand should set stage for return to quarterly growth in 2h20 under fitch’s baseline for Japan
  • says sharply wider fiscal deficits in 2020 and 2021, will add significantly to Japan’s public debt
  • project Japan’s deficit to narrow to 10.9% of gdp in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022
  • expects BOJ to maintain current interest-rate settings through at least end of 2022 under its yield-curve control framework for japan

Fiscal deficit feared to rise to 7.9%

With the government’s Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, the country’s fiscal deficit is likely to be more than double to 7.9 per cent in the current financial year, according to an SBI research report.

The report had earlier estimated the fiscal deficit to be 3.5 per cent of GDP this fiscal.

The government has announced a cumulative package of Rs 20 lakh crore, which is nearly 10 per cent of GDP to provide relief to various segments of the coronavirus-hit economy.

“After taking into account cash outflow of these measures as well as the previous and the recent excise duty hike and DA freeze (amounting to 0.8 per cent of GDP), we now revise our baseline fiscal deficit (excluding extra budgetary resources (EBR)) to 7.9 per cent of the revised GDP in FY21 from 3.5 per cent earlier, owing to lower revenues and higher expenditure against the backdrop of Covid-19 pandemic,” the report said.

S&P cut Australia to AAA negative

S&P cut Australia outlook to negative from stable

Rating is AAA still.
This is not wholly unexpected from S&P
AUD down a few pips on the announcement
S&P cite:
  • reflects substantial deterioration of Australia’s fiscal headroom
  • large Australian budget deficits likely to be temporary
  • virus a severe economic c and fiscal shock
  • government deficit to average 7.5% of GDP in 20/21
  • annual growth to fall to 1.3% in FY 2020
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