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Bank of Canada cut rates 50 bps. Stocks soar. Biden Super Tuesday results help.

Highlights for today’s near trading session:

  • The Bank of Canada cut the rates by 50 basis points. The expectations was for a 60% chance of a 50 basis point cut. As a result, the Canadian dollar weakened. The USDCAD went from a pre-decision low of around 1.3330, to a session high of 1.34308 (100 pip move). The move took the price above the swing highs from yesterday and the NY session high between 1.3090 to 1.30953. The prices since rotated back to the downside and afternoon trading and trades just above that swing high area.  a move below in the new day would next target the rising 100 hour moving average 1.3377
  • In the US the ADP employment report showed a bigger than expected gain of 183K versus 170K estimate. However the prior month was revised lower to 209K from 291K. The BLS will release the US job data on Friday with a change in nonfarm payroll of 175K estimate. It’s prior month came in at 225K. The revision down in the ADP report brings its number closer to the US number
  • Democratic nominee Biden was resurrected after the Super Tuesday primaries. Biden won 9 of the 12 contests, and took the lead over Bernie’s Sanders in the delegate vote. The big reversal helped to calm market fears about the implications of a Sanders nominee.
  • The US stocks surged with the Dow industrial average rising by over 1100 points on the day.  The Fed easing yesterday was not greeted with as much excitement, but Canada cut rates by 50 basis points as well and others were rumored to be moving in the cut direction.  That stimulus along with the Biden Super Tuesday showing, helped to send stocks soaring. In addition to the NASDAQ rising by over 1100 points or 4.4%, the S&P index is up over 120 points or 4.1% and the NASDAQ index is up 317 points or 3.66%. A huge day to the upside for US equities
  • European shares also close higher but off there high levels of the day. I would expect that all things being equal, they should play some catch up to the US afternoon gains

Rasmussen Numbers; PredictIt

Their sampling of 1,000 Likely Voters taken a week ago shows a slight edge to the Big Orange. 46% think the President will be re-elected; 33% think he will lose to the Democrat and 12% think he will be convicted by the Senate. 9% are unsure. The sample weights a Democrat preponderance 38% to 32% Republican with the remaining 30% as independent. PredictIt shows the same: 52 cents for the Republican candidate to win; 51 cents for the Democrat.

The London Bookies have a very different view.

From Oddschecker:

Donald Trump -110

Joe Biden +500

Bernie Sanders +750

Pete Buttigieg +2000

Elizabeth Warren +2000

Michael Bloomberg +2000

Hillary Clinton +5000

Andrew Yang +5000