Steroids across the globe to aid ailing global growth !
Archives of “November 2019” month
rssChina foreign ministry: US economic bullying flouts principle of market economy
The Global Times citing some comments by the Chinese foreign ministry
The comments are via a series of tweets:
“The #US is used to suppressing specific countries and enterprises without any solid evidence, said Chinese FM, slamming the #FCC for barring China’s #Huawei and #ZTE from supplying US carriers in rural areas.
This economic bullying by the #US side blatantly flouts US’ principle of market economy. If this principle does not need to be adhered to, other countries can also do the same to US companies: Chinese FM”
This is not anything new really. We have heard these comments before as they have constantly voiced out their displeasure over the Huawei issue. But the warning on other countries potentially being preferred as business/trade partners is one to just be wary of.
Germany November Ifo business climate index 95.0 vs 95.0 expected
Latest data released by Ifo – 25 November 2019
- Prior 94.6; revised to 94.7
- Expectations 92.1 vs 92.5 expected
- Prior 91.5; revised to 91.6
- Current assessment 97.9 vs 97.9 expected
- Prior 97.8
Slight delay in the release by the source. A measure of business conditions, sentiment and expectations towards the German economy.
The readings are within expectations and reaffirms some stability in sentiment and outlook towards the German economy so far in Q4. That said, the overall confidence levels remain low with risks to the economy still ever present.
EUR/USD keeps steady at 1.1021, near unchanged levels on the day currently.
Gold eases to one-week low to start the day
Trade optimism sees gold keep lower on the day
Gold buyers tried for a move higher to seize near-term control on Friday but the break was hit by a stronger dollar following more solid US data. That helped to give sellers a reason to claim near-term control and price is now at one-week lows under $1,460.
Price is currently more or less testing minor support around $1,456.45 with a break there likely to see price action move towards a test of the $1,450 level next.
The poor start to today isn’t helped by more positive US-China trade headlines and the worry for gold will be if this sort of narrative keeps up over the next few weeks.
On the daily chart, price is already under the 100-day moving average @ ~$1,483 and we could see a sharper correction if the fundamentals continue to go against gold – especially once price firmly locks in a move below $1,450.
With the Fed also seen on the sidelines now and there being some green shoots about a global economic recovery, I reckon the potential secondary push higher in gold may have to rest for a little bit before gaining real traction again.
That said, one thing to watch as we look towards late December and January is the seasonal factor. Gold tends to see solid gains ahead of the Lunar New Year with January easily being the best month of gains (six years in a row now) with some spillovers to late December observed over the last two years too:
% change in gold for each month during the last 10 yearsCFTC commitment of traders: EUR shorts increase in the current week. Largest speculative position.
Forex futures positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending November 19, 2019
- EUR short 63K vs 58K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- GBP short 32K vs 28K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- JPY short 35K vs 35K short last week. Unchanged
- CHF short 16K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- AUD short 47k vs 41K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
- NZD short 35K vs 36K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- CAD long 29k vs 42K long last week. Longs trimmed by 13K
Highlights:
- EUR shorts remain the largest speculative position The short position is near the middle of the high to low range over the last year.
- CAD is the largest and only, net long position (short USD position). However, the position was pared by 13K
- AUD shorts increased by 6K
Update: Buttigieg now tied w/ Warren in betting markets…
Brent vs US dollar
Ray Dalio debunks WSJ story about his bearish position
Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates responsed to WSJ article
It was reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier today that Ray Dalio from Bridgewater Associates had a 1.5 billion bearish option position on the S&P and Eurostoxx 600 index.
Dalio is out with a tweet debunking the story. He tweets:
Even if he did, or does, have a 1.5 billion option position (it is not clear), it would dwarf the money under management (and likely long position).
The major indices end the week with modest gains. Dow and S&P broke 3 day slides
For the week, the major indices moved lower
The major indices are ending the week with modest gains. The Dow and S&P ended a three-day slide.
- S&P index rose 6.64 points or 0.21% at 3110.18.
- NASDAQ index rose 13.68 points or 0.16% at 8519.89
- Dow rose 107.32 points or 0.39% at 27873.68
For the week, the major indices closed lower. The NASDAQ index is closing lower for the 1st time in 7 weeks. The declines were relatively modest. The numbers are showing:
- S&P index, -0.33%
- Nasdaq index, -0.25%
- Dow, -0.47%
Overall, if this is a down week, it certainly was not a disaster.
Thought For A Day
