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Pres. Trump has not yet decided to rollback tariffs with China

Says China would like to have them rollback

  • Has not yet decided on rollback of tariffs with China
  • Says he isn’t concerned about anything on impeachment
  • Says he won’t fully rollback China tariffs
  • Says he could sign it trade deal with Xi in Iowa
  • Says he plans to sign any China trade deal in the US
  • Says China wants make a deal
  • I am very happy with taking in billions of dollars from China in tariffs.
The comment that he won’t FULLY rollback China tariffs is open to interpretation.
  • Does it mean that he won’t initially fully rollback the tariffs?
  • Does it mean he will be reluctant to rollback all the tariffs over time?  The President does have a tendency to like to get back what was taken.  He also thinks the tariffs are paid by China directly.
  • Does it mean, there will be some rollback initially. Peter Navarro said earlier that the December 15 tariffs would be postponed on a Phase I  deal, but the existing tariffs would remain to encourage Phase II and Phase III talks to proceed

European major indices give back a little to end the week

Euro Stoxx index falls for the first time in 5 days

The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose for the last 5 trading days and in the process moved to the highest level since 2015. That string was broken today. The Euro Stoxx index fell by -0.4%.
Most of the other indices in Europe also saw modest declines. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC, -0.2%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.1%
For the week, the provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +2%
  • France’s CAC, +2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.8%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +2.5%
In the European debt market, yields are ending the session mixed.
Euro Stoxx index falls for the first time in 5 days

Moody’s changes ratings outlook for eight Indian corporates to negative following sovereign outlook change -Full Text

Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has taken a number of rating actions on Indian non-financial corporates, following its earlier announcement that it has changed the outlook on India’s Baa2 sovereign rating to negative from stable.

As a result of the sovereign rating action, Moody’s has changed the outlook on the ratings of the following companies:

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa2 foreign currency senior unsecured rating on the MTN program. The ba1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) is affirmed.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. The ba1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC): Affirmed Baa1 local and foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa1 foreign and local senior unsecured ratings on the MTN program. The baa1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil India Limited (OIL): Affirmed Baa2 local and foreign currency issuer and foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings; revised outlook to negative from stable. The baa3 BCA is affirmed.

Petronet LNG Limited (PLL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable.

Infosys Limited (Infosys): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

A full list of affected ratings is provided towards the end of this press release.

RATINGS RATIONALE (more…)

Moody’s changes ratings outlook for eight Indian corporates to negative following sovereign outlook change -Full Text

Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has taken a number of rating actions on Indian non-financial corporates, following its earlier announcement that it has changed the outlook on India’s Baa2 sovereign rating to negative from stable.

As a result of the sovereign rating action, Moody’s has changed the outlook on the ratings of the following companies:

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa2 foreign currency senior unsecured rating on the MTN program. The ba1 baseline credit assessment (BCA) is affirmed.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable. The ba1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC): Affirmed Baa1 local and foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable. Also affirmed the (P)Baa1 foreign and local senior unsecured ratings on the MTN program. The baa1 BCA is affirmed.

Oil India Limited (OIL): Affirmed Baa2 local and foreign currency issuer and foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings; revised outlook to negative from stable. The baa3 BCA is affirmed.

Petronet LNG Limited (PLL): Affirmed Baa2 foreign currency issuer rating; revised outlook to negative from stable.

Infosys Limited (Infosys): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS): Affirmed A3 local currency issuer rating and revised outlook to negative from stable.

A full list of affected ratings is provided towards the end of this press release. (more…)

Suzuki postpones India auto plant opening amid sales slump World’s No. 4 car market skids as tighter credit and high

Japan’s Suzuki Motor has postponed the opening of a new plant in western India, Nikkei has learned. The plant, originally scheduled to go online in April 2020, will now begin operating next July.

Suzuki’s decision to postpone the startup is the latest in a string of efforts by Indian carmakers to deal with a softening market. Suzuki Motor Gujarat, a wholly owned local subsidiary, is building the new plant in the state of Gujarat. The $550 million factory will raise the company’s capacity in India by 250,000 cars annually to 2.25 million.

India’s auto market is sluggish and likely to remain so, with new car sales in 2019 expected to fall below the previous year’s levels for the first time in five years. Suzuki was forced to push back the opening of the new plant to assess demand.

India is the world’s fourth-largest auto market, with 4.4 million new cars sold in 2018, ahead of Germany’s 3.82 million. However, sales began falling last November and the declines widened to double digits starting in April. The slowdown in India has confounded automakers around the world, which had been banking on growth. That is exacerbating a global sales slump.

Maruti Suzuki, Suzuki’s local subsidiary and the country’s largest automaker, and Mahindra & Mahindra, the third-largest local manufacturer, idled plants for several days in the July to September quarter due to sluggish sales. Maruti laid off 3,000 contract employees in August, while Tata Motors, the No. 4 carmaker, has accepted a 65 billion rupee ($910 million) bailout from Tata Group, the conglomerate to which it belongs.

Suzuki has set an ambitious target for India, hoping to raise sales to 5 million cars a year by 2030. The move to postpone the opening of the Gujarat plant is temporary, the company says, but the outlook is murky. It may have to reassess its long-term strategy if the opening is pushed back for a long time.

“I think we need to watch [for] maybe three months to see what the market is up to in January before we can make a somewhat more certain prediction,” said Maruti Chairman R.C. Bhargava in an interview with Nikkei on Oct. 24.

On Tuesday, Suzuki said it expects sales in India to fall 20% on the year to about 1.4 million cars in the year ending March 2020. With sales tepid in the country, which accounted for 30% of Suzuki’s total revenue, the company’s net profit for the current business year is now forecast at 140 billion yen ($1.28 billion), down 22% from the previous year.

(more…)

Moody’s lowers India’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’

Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday changed its outlook on India’s ratings to “negative” from “stable”, citing increasing risks that the country’s economic growth will remain lower than in the past.

The outlook partly reflects government and policy ineffectiveness in addressing economic weakness, which led to an increase in debt burden from already high levels, the ratings agency said. (bit.ly/2NopI10)

India’s economy grew only 5.0% year-on-year between April and June, its weakest pace since 2013, as consumer demand and government spending slowed amid global trade frictions.

The 38 steps to becoming a successful trader

  • We accumulate trading information – buying books, going to seminars and researching.
  • We begin to trade with our ‘new’ knowledge.
  • We consistently ‘donate’ and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
  • We accumulate more information.
  • We switch the commodities we are currently following.
  • We go back into the market and trade with our ‘updated’ knowledge.
  • We get ‘beat up’ again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.
  • We start to listen to ‘outside news’ & other traders.
  • We go back into the market and continue to donate.
  • We switch commodities again.
  • We search for more trading information.
  • We go back into the market and continue to donate.
  • We get ‘overconfident’ & market humbles us.
  • We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.
  • ————————–Many Traders Will Give up at this Point as they Realize Work is Involved————————————–
  • We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology.
  • We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
  • We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
  • We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
  • We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but overall we still hesitate when it comes time to execute.
  • We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
  • We go back into the market and continue to donate. We go back into the market and continue to donate.
  • We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is in us, not the trade methodology.
  • We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
  • As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are erratic.
  • We know we are close.
  • We go back and research our rules.
  • We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
  • Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
  • We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don’t follow them.
  • We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
  • We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
  • We master our methodology and trading rules.
  • We begin to consistently make money. We begin to consistently make money.
  • We get a little overconfident and the market humbles us.
  • We continue to learn our lessons.
  • We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our contract size.
  • We are making more money then we ever dreamed to be possible.
  • We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of.

Michael Bloomberg is preparing to enter the Democratic presidential race

Billionaire could challenge for the Presidency

Billionaire could challenge for the Presidency
The New York Times reports that billionaire Michael Bloomberg is preparing to enter the Democratic primary.
The founder of Bloomberg Finance LP expected to file paperwork this week designating himself as a candidate in at least one state with an early filing deadline, people briefed on Bloomberg’s plans told the newspaper.
Although he is filing for an early primary in Alabama, an adivsor told the NYT that he’s still unsure about entering the race.
Howard Wolfson, a close adviser to Mr. Bloomberg, saidonThursday that the former mayor viewed President Trump as an “unprecedented threat to our nation,” and noted Mr. Bloomberg’s heavy spending in the 2018 midterm elections and this week’s off-year races in Virginia. Mr. Bloomberg, he said, has grown uneasy about the existing trajectory of the Democratic primary.

China’s monetary policy may switch gears in the coming months – Global Times

Stronger yuan among reasons for lowering rates

Stronger yuan among reasons for lowering rates
The Global Times is out with a report saying China’s monetary policy may ‘switch gears’ in the coming months and join in the global easing trend.
China’s monetary policy may switch gears in the coming months with the recent interest rate cut of its medium-term lending facility (MLF) signaling a lower loan prime rate (LPR). A Stronger yuan against the US dollar also provides more policy maneuvers for the Chinese monetary authority to follow suit in the new trend of global monetary easing.
They highlight that the rate to watch is the LPR and starting on Dec 31, national banks and financial institutions will have to peg at least 50% of loans to the LPR, rising to 80% in March 2020.

China’s current situation means its central bank can afford lower interest rates. If there is a new wave in the global economic downturn, China is better prepared and has more countermeasures in the bag than other countries like the US.