Archives of “February 2019” month

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What does NOT being a hero look like in trading? Some possibilities

  
  Education
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  • Not trying to catch the absolute top or bottom
  • Not “fighting the tide” because you are “right”
  • Being agnostic and opportunistic deep in your bones
  • Changing your stance immediately if price action fails to confirm
  • Never entering without price confirmation in the first place
  • Looking for max risk-adjusted odds of profit, not max glory

Not being a hero means less glory, but ultimate far more profit, because if you have the patience to wait for the (non-heroic) optimal moment — which is almost never the initial turning point, which heroes love to call out — you can more effectively scale up and put leverage to work in your favor.

Not being a hero in respect to adverse price action — dumping positions quickly that aren’t working out as planned — also lets you safely deploy more size in general, which in turn allows for more effective pyramiding and greater profits from the very same move the hero took with less size (because he got chewed up so many times trying to catch the damn turn). (more…)

U.S debt to rise to $19.6 trillion by 2015

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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June 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress.

 The report that was sent to lawmakers Friday night with no fanfare said the ratio of debt to the gross domestic product would rise to 102 percent by 2015 from 93 percent this year.

“The president’s economic experts say a 1 percent increase in GDP can create almost 1 million jobs, and that 1 percent is what experts think we are losing because of the debt’s massive drag on our economy,” said Republican Representative Dave Camp, who publicized the report.

He was referring to recent testimony by University of Maryland Professor Carmen Reinhart to the bipartisan fiscal commission, which was created by President Barack Obama to recommend ways to reduce the deficit, which said debt topping 90 percent of GDP could slow economic growth.

The U.S. debt has grown rapidly with the economic downturn and government spending for the Wall Street bailout, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the economic stimulus. The rising debt is contributing to voter unrest ahead of the November congressional elections in which Republicans hope to regain control of Congress.

The total U.S. debt includes obligations to the Social Security retirement program and other government trust funds. The amount of debt held by investors, which include China and other countries as well as individuals and pension funds, will rise to an estimated $9.1 trillion this year from $7.5 trillion last year.

Mario Draghi's Favorite Joke

  
Education, Humour
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In his latest “What Next in The Global Economy” note, Morgan Stanley economist Joachim Fels passes along the following little story about Mario Draghi:

 Who said central bankers have no sense of humour? During a recent dinner at Frankfurt’s Senckenberg Museum (the home of Germany’s most extensive collection of dinosaurs) Mario Draghi told the crowd his favourite joke:

A man needs a heart transplant. Says the doctor: “I can give you the heart of a five-year old boy.” “Too young.” “How about that of a forty-year old investment banker?” “They don’t have a heart.” “A seventy-five year old central banker?” “I’ll take it.” “But why?” “It’s never been used!”

I like the joke, and not only because I consider myself an economist working for an investment bank rather than an investment banker. Mario Draghi’s joke conveys a simple but important message: central banking is about making rational, cool-headed and unemotional decisions in often difficult circumstances. In the 15 years of its existence as the keeper of the euro, the ECB led by Mario Draghi and his predecessors Jean-Claude Trichet and Wim Duisenberg has had to make a lot of difficult decisions in difficult circumstances. A few of these decisions were questionable (though typically only with the benefit of hindsight), such as the rate cut in April 1999 or the rate hikes in July 2008 and in April and July 2011. Most of the other ECB decisions were just right or even hugely successful – just think of Mario Draghi’s announcement in July 2012 to “do whatever it takes” to safeguard the euro. (more…)

CNBC Lowers Bar Again

  
Analysis, Education, Uncategorized, US Market
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BARTIROMOIt’s become something of a custom for CNBC personalities to be silly and/or ignorant, but it’s generally on matters related directly to monetary policy or the markets (except for the Fast Money crew, those guys are cool). It’s rare that any of the CNBC peeps get to flaunt their half-witted chops outside the confines of the network’s rather limited subject matter, but when they do, it’s gold. Such as today, when everyone’s favorite Money Honey displayed a kind of shocking lack of comprehension of what Medicare even is. Pardon the bias, HuffPo never claimed to be objective.

At one point, Bartiromo was critical of the government-managed health care system in the United Kingdom. “How do I know the quality [of health care in the United States] is not going to suffer” with a public option? she asked. (more…)

THE SUCCESSFUL TRADER

  
  Education
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douglasquote

There is a reason why so few traders succeed.  It is not for lack of study or effort or passion.  It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription.  It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators).  No.  So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.

The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by.  They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.

The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”.   The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.

The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”

Words of Wisdom

  
Education, Life
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Words of Wisdom

“When the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls and those who build windmills. We would like to build windmills.”

“On acquisitions: Don’t ask a barber whether you need a hair cut”

“Knowing our limitations is the key.”

“How does Warren balances between his heart, mind or pocket?”

“On philanthropy: We don’t intend to become the richest person in the cemetery.”

“90% of our assets go home in the night and hopefully return the next morning. People are our assets.”

“Be open to learning. Learning belongs to the future and knowledge belongs to the past.”

“If you sleep on the floor you are not going to fall off the bed. Stay with the basics.”

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