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Losers Average Losers

  
  Education
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There is a famous picture of Paul Tudor Jones relaxing in his office with his feet kicked up. A single sheet of loose-leaf paper is tacked on the wall behind him with the simple phrase written out in black marker: “Losers Average Losers”. Trite meaningless talk? Not so fast.

Famed trader Jesse Livermore warned 100 years ago against averaging losses. For example, you buy a stock at 50, and two or three days later if you can buy it at 47, you average down by buying another hundred shares, making an average price of 48.5. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the double worry when the price hits 44? At that point, there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second shares. If you are able to apply such an unsound principle, you can keep on averaging down by buying 200 at 44, then 400 at 41, 800 at 38, 1600 at 35, 3200 at 32, 6400 at 29, and so on (source: Jesse L. Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks: The Livermore Formula for Combining Time Element and Price).

Losses are a part of the game. You want no losses? You want positive returns every month? It does not work that way, that is, not unless you were lucky enough to be invested in the Bernard Madoff Ponzi-scheme which has resulted in assorted criminal convictions and a few suicides. Losses are not your problem. Its how you react to them. Ignore losses with no plan, or try to double down on your losses to recoup, and those losses will come back like a Mack truck to run over your account.

Wisdom Not to Be Ignored

Don’t frown, double down! Not smart strategy.

Escalator up, express elevator down.

You can’t win if you are not willing to lose. It’s like breathing in, but not breathing out.

Self-awareness

  
  Education
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1) the recognition that our thinking and our emotions are intertwined and both influence our perception and judgment that leads to our decisions and actions (this view also happens to be consistent what the leading brain scientists are now saying)

2) much of our motivation – the intertwined thinking/emotion that drives our behavior – is actually subconscious, e.g. we assume we are trading the market but on other levels we are also trading our P&L and our feelings about our P&L  (and what our P&L represents to us) is just one example.

3) when we understand (self-awareness) the underlying/subconscious motivation for our behavior we are in a better position to choose an alternative.

Obviously, nothing can guarantee change or improvement (contrary to many claims made by pseudo “experts”), but at least an approach that emphasizes expansion of awareness puts the odds in your favor. (more…)

20 Lessons From Stock Market Wizards

  
  Education
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3994-1Most of you have probably heard of this book and some may have read it. For the benefit of those who have not read it or heard of it, Stock Market Wizards is basically a book that consists of interviews with 15 top stock traders in America. These top traders come from a myriad of backgrounds and have varied interests- from mathematician, historian, scientist, to those with an interest in photography and even farming. But they have quite a few things in common when it comes to trading:
DISCIPLINE
LOSS CONTROL
HARD WORK

Most of the traders interviewed were quite forthcoming, but a few were reluctant to talk about their strategies (even past strategies that worked but is now no longer used) for fear that disclosure would render its effectiveness. Of the 15 traders, only Mark Cook and John Bender are options trader. By the way, Mark Cook’s story is one of my favourite and he is also the guy that likes to farm.
I am interested to read about these traders, not simply because they are top traders, but also because many of them encountered major failures and lost tons of money before they become successful in trading. The path to success is never easy and this book really keeps me inspired. I think in future if I meet with setbacks in my trading journey, This is 4th time ,I had completed reading this book.

Here’s my 20 lessons from Stock Market Wizards (more…)

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