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Rules for Bear Market

1. Good news in a bear market is like smoke in the breeze (i.e., soon dispersed). Don’t buy into upgrades or analyst recommendations. Analyst “upgrades” or recommendations can kill you.Every person reading this has access to some kind of trading platform, trading tools or systems that afford instant access to the financial markets. Good news like upgrades in bear markets typically has about five minutes of fame.

 

2. Bear markets are not a time to learn how to “day trade” in an effort to recoup losses (no matter how many times you hear that “this is a traders’ market”).

 

3. Accumulation days (there may be three or more in a row) are shorting opportunities, but resist being aggressive until the S&P 500 shows a 3- and 5-day moving average bearish cross. (Remember that it’s 50% market, 25% sector and 25% stock as far as direction, but some could argue in markets it’s 75% index, 15% sector and 10% stock.)

 

4. Chart patterns (unlike ice cream) come in just two flavors: continuations and reversals. Reversal patterns mostly form in weak trends. If the trend that the market or stock you are watching has been strong, then chances are that any pause is just a consolidation before the next leg down.

 

5. There is no such thing as “safe sectors.” Sure, each bear market brings sector rotation. But make sure if you are playing this game that you don’t have the flexibility of wood. And when the music stops, quickly find a chair!

That is, you must keep a flexible mindset so that you are able to change with the markets. The best traders are those who are nimble and approach the markets without bias.

 

6. Your stop-losses are YOUR stop-losses. The pain of being down 8% in a bull market is no different than being 8% wrong in a bear. If your risk tolerance requires you stopping out at 8%, then be consistent in any market you trade, but trade “with the primary trend.”

It takes greater emotional balance to trade a bear than a bull. So, always manage your risk — just remember that, in the markets, your money is always at risk.

Great traders manage emotions and risk. This makes them great. YOU know your risk tolerance and YOU control what happens between the “keyboard and chair.”

 

7. Bear markets are generally slow-moving affairs. However, stocks in bear markets can move much faster than you think (hence the reason that volatility rises drastically). But the “time” we spend in a bear is what everyone needs to keep in perspective. Bear markets last much longer than most are willing to wait. (more…)

Today's Intraday SMS ,Just See power of chart

 

-Today morning ,I had written Support for NF at 5032-4985 level.

-Made low of 5053 & taken U-turn.

First SMS :Now NF @ 5068.Crossover above 5077 will take to 5112-5127 level.Above 5077….Pls for God sake dont remain short in any stock.

2nd SMS :From 11:00 till 2:00 one side move and in last 35 minutes watch explosive rally.

3rd SMS :Now Bank Nifty 9548 ,Once crosses 9555 will take to 9583 & there after 9668-9680 level..Buy for overnight.

101% ,No Magic-No Miracle :Only power of chart.Just see ,What had happened after our recommendations.

Yes ,Its PARTY Time for our Subscribers.

To dream anything that you want to dream. That’s the beauty of the human mind. To do anything that you want to do. That is the strength of the human will. To trust yourself to test your limits. That is the courage to succeed. ~

Updated at 16:24/5th May/Baroda

Jesse Livermore with Edwin Lefevre, dated circa 1922

JL-ASRWhat follows is a never before published “interview” with Jesse Livermore.

Conducted by Edwin Lefevre, dated circa 1922, this “interview” reveals great insights into the mind of the famous trader. As we will see, the wisdom imparted here could change our entire perspective on the speculative game we love and enjoy.  It might even change our lives.  I took the liberty of editing it due to its length.

Lefevre:  Hello Mr Livermore.  Thank you for taking the time to conduct this series of interviews with me.  It is my understanding that you do not grant many interviews, so I am honored.

Livermore: You are very welcome.  I appreciate the respect but you do not have to address me as Mr.  Jesse, or my nickname, the boy plunger, will suffice.

Lefevre: And where did you get the name boy plunger?

Livermore: It was during the early days when I was trading small lots in the bucket shops, where the man who traded in twenty shares at a clip was suspected of being J.P. Morgan traveling incognito.  I didn’t have a following.  I kept my business to myself.  As it was, it did not take long for the bucket shops to get sore on me for beating them.  I’d walk in and plank down my margin, but they’d look at it without making a move to grab it.  They’d say nothing doing. That is when they started calling me the boy plunger.  I had to move from shop to shop, even to the point of changing my name.  I couldn’t put trades on without getting cheated on the quotes.  This was in Boston, so I then moved to where the real action was, to New York.  I was 21 at the time.

Lefevre:  Were you making money? (more…)

Your Comfort Zone

COMFORTZONEHigh achievers (in life and in the market) frequently step outside their comfort zone. That’s the way they learn and make progress. At the same time, they also expect to fail (more often than not), but do not see failure or mistakes they make as problems, but as educational experiences.

The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite.

The key for today is to first understand what your comfort zone is and then take a step outside of it. Remember, the market doesn’t reward comfort and decisions that “feel” good to make. That’s the law of nature and it is true of this market like any other.

What does NOT being a hero look like in trading? Some possibilities

  • Not trying to catch the absolute top or bottom
  • Not “fighting the tide” because you are “right”
  • Being agnostic and opportunistic deep in your bones
  • Changing your stance immediately if price action fails to confirm
  • Never entering without price confirmation in the first place
  • Looking for max risk-adjusted odds of profit, not max glory

Not being a hero means less glory, but ultimate far more profit, because if you have the patience to wait for the (non-heroic) optimal moment — which is almost never the initial turning point, which heroes love to call out — you can more effectively scale up and put leverage to work in your favor.

Not being a hero in respect to adverse price action — dumping positions quickly that aren’t working out as planned — also lets you safely deploy more size in general, which in turn allows for more effective pyramiding and greater profits from the very same move the hero took with less size (because he got chewed up so many times trying to catch the damn turn). (more…)

U.S debt to rise to $19.6 trillion by 2015

June 8 (Reuters) – The U.S. debt will top $13.6 trillion this year and climb to an estimated $19.6 trillion by 2015, according to a Treasury Department report to Congress.

 The report that was sent to lawmakers Friday night with no fanfare said the ratio of debt to the gross domestic product would rise to 102 percent by 2015 from 93 percent this year.

“The president’s economic experts say a 1 percent increase in GDP can create almost 1 million jobs, and that 1 percent is what experts think we are losing because of the debt’s massive drag on our economy,” said Republican Representative Dave Camp, who publicized the report.

He was referring to recent testimony by University of Maryland Professor Carmen Reinhart to the bipartisan fiscal commission, which was created by President Barack Obama to recommend ways to reduce the deficit, which said debt topping 90 percent of GDP could slow economic growth.

The U.S. debt has grown rapidly with the economic downturn and government spending for the Wall Street bailout, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the economic stimulus. The rising debt is contributing to voter unrest ahead of the November congressional elections in which Republicans hope to regain control of Congress.

The total U.S. debt includes obligations to the Social Security retirement program and other government trust funds. The amount of debt held by investors, which include China and other countries as well as individuals and pension funds, will rise to an estimated $9.1 trillion this year from $7.5 trillion last year.