As China allows the yuan to depreciate to a level not seen in 11 years, financial authorities have rolled out measures to stem capital outflows from the mainland.
The new rules include stricter oversight of banks in times of capital flight and restrictions on real estate developers’ access to foreign currency bonds. If the financial system is judged to be on the brink on instability, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, will declare the situation “abnormal.”
Under that assessment level, banks will be evaluated on the amount of yuan wired offshore and the volume of foreign currency sold. If the levels stray too far from the national average, the bank’s grade will diminish. Such lenders will then face limits on banking activities.
China is tolerating the softer yuan to ease the impact on domestic exporters during the prolonged U.S. trade war. But the government looks to avoid a repeat of 2015, when currency traders dumped the yuan after authorities lowered the reference rate.
In the wake of that currency shock, the foreign exchange regulator took steps in 2016 and 2017 to slow the outflow of funds. At the time, foreign nationals encountered hurdles when trying to transfer sums as small as a few thousand dollars. (more…)
China’s central bank set its daily yuan reference rate at 7.0039 to the dollar Thursday, crossing the 7 line for the first time in roughly 11 years and signaling resolve even as the U.S. cries foul over the weakening currency.
Market participants speculate that Beijing may keep pushing the rate to around 7.2 to 7.3 so as to alleviate the impact of the next round of American tariffs.
But while a weaker yuan will help exporters impacted by the drawn-out trade war, the People’s Bank of China still must carefully balance these gains against the risks of runaway devaluation and capital flight.
The yuan can move only 2% in either direction from the daily reference rate on the mainland. So the rate, announced before trading starts each session, reflects the monetary authorities’ wishes.
The authorities want a gradual weakening of the yuan, said Ken Cheung, senior Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank.
The Trump administration just labeled China a currency manipulator Monday, after the yuan weakened past the psychological threshold of 7 in Shanghai. Setting reference rates past that line could trigger further pushback from the U.S. (more…)
The latest set of fundamental and technical observations from the bearish Canadian.
Well, well, so much for consensus views. Like the one we woke up to on Monday morning recommending that bonds be sold and equities be bought on the news of China’s “peg” decision. As we said on Monday, did the 20%-plus yuan appreciation from 2005 to 2008 really alter the investment landscape all that much? It looks like Mr. Market is coming around to the view that all China managed to really accomplish was to shift the focus away from its rigid FX policy to Germany’s rigid approach towards fiscal stimulus.
What is becoming clearer, especially after the latest reports on housing starts, permits, resales and builder sentiment surveys, is that housing is already double dipping in the U.S. The MBA statistics just came out for the week of June 18 and the new purchase index fell 1.2% – down 36.5% from year-ago levels and that year-ago level itself was down 22% from its year-ago level. Capish, paisan? So far, June is averaging 14.5% below May’s level and May was crushed 18% sequentially, so do not expect what is likely to be an ugly new home sales report for May today to be just a one-month wonder. Meanwhile, the widespread view out of the economics community is that we will see at least 3% growth in the second half of the year: fat chance of that.
What is fascinating is how the ECRI, which was celebrated by Wall Street research houses a year ago, is being maligned today for acting as an impostor — not the indicator it is advertised to be because it gets re-jigged to fit the cycle.
From our lens, there is nothing wrong in trying to improve the predictive abilities of these leading indicators. Still — it is a comment on how Wall Street researchers are incentivized to be bullish because nobody we know criticized the ECRI as it bounced off the lows (not least of which our debating pal, James Grant). For a truly wonderful critique of the ballyhooed report that was released yesterday basically accusing the ECRI index as fitting the data points to the cycle – not the case, by the way – have a look at ECRI Weekly Indicators Widely Misunderstood that made it to our friend Barry Ritholtz’s blog (“The Big Picture”).
As for the equity market, we are at a critical juncture and it could break any day. After successfully testing support at the key Fibonacci retracement level of 1,040, the S&P 500 has since bounced up to the 200-day moving average of 1,115 – and this failed to hold. Resistance prevailed. My sense is that the market will break to the downside, and for three reasons:
in to the main streets. Real estate is one of the sectors where prices have scaled up. Automobile followed with cements and capital goods are also under the ambit of excess flow of funds resulting over capacity bubble .Asset prices and commodity prices are also under the threat of excess valuation. given by banks without taking care of any quality measures on the loan papers. Its juts like US mortgage case where quality of loans was never taken in to account. China’s 9.35 trillion yuan of loans in 2009 have given birth to the fear of another financial crisis in the fastest growing economy.
China announced on Saturday the first trade deficit within the last six years. Although a deficit was expected, nobody anticipated the numbers would reach $7.24 billion.
The last trade deficit in the country came in April of 2004 and was $2.26 billion.
For the month of March, the country’s imports totaled $119.35 billion and exports reached $112.11 billion. Both of these numbers are up drastically in comparison to March of 2009.
The deficit will more than likely turn around within the near future, but the numbers are enough to spark concern in the eyes of the Chinese.
The deficit in March mainly came from China’s trade with Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, Customs said, while it continued to run surpluses with the U.S. and the European Union. Those big trading partners have been among those arguing that China’s practice of keeping the yuan effectively pegged to the U.S. dollar gives its exporters an unfair advantage and contribute to the large trade surpluses.
All of this comes at a time when the United States and leaders throughout Europe are pushing China to increase the value of the yuan, which economist suspect is nearly 40% undervalued.
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks with Bloomberg’s Haslinda Amin about China’s yuan policy and calls for the mainland to allow the currency to appreciate. Speaking from Singapore, Rogers also discusses the outlook for global economies, currencies and the commodities market. Bloomberg’s Paul Gordon and Patricia Lui also speak.
