One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.
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Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs. (more…)
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One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.Trading Wisdom
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The Path to Greatness
There is much wisdom in the following and I wish these were my words, but sadly they are not. This particular speech doesn’t even pertain to trading, but reminds me so much of what Mark Douglas teaches. However, I always seem to find ways to relate just about everything in my life to trading, as I’m sure most who read this blog. Therefore I thought you would find as much value here as do I.
You are where you are…you have a goal
As you move towards that goal, things will happen
Some of those things will eventually, trigger in you an emotion that is counterproductive to your goal
It will cause you to act in a way, that will take you away from where you were heading, and towards something more familiar in your life that has plagued you your whole life
We all have these areas of vulnerabilityThose who master this vulnerability are the people who master their craft. The people who master that moment in time, where that reaction occurs, are the people who do extraordinary things with their life. Who overcome things that others can’t even imagine confronting. It’s because at that moment, they manage themselves through that triggered state in an effective way, rather than defaulting to their old system they developed at a very young age, that does nothing but protect them, but not advance them. If you can master those moments, your life will be catapulted into extraordinary experiences beyond anything you can imagine.
GERALD M. LOEB on GAINING PROFITS BY TAKING LOSSES
One of the many books on my desk right now is a classic written over 70 years ago by the stock market legend Gerald M. Loeb. Loeb was a well respected Wall Street broker, not because he possessed some magic investing genie lamp but because of the following nugget of wisdom, one of many from The Battle For Investment Survival in a section entitled Gaining Profits By Taking Losses:
Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital. It is also the action that most people know the least about and that they are least liable to execute. I’ve been studying investments, giving investment advice and actually investing since 1921. I haven’t found the real key yet and don’t ever expect to, as no one has found it before me, but I have learned a great many things. The most important single thing I learned is that accepting losses promptly is the first key to success.
Some things never change.
Respect the Trend
One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.
—
Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.
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Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.
Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.
Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.
One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.Trading Should Be Effortless
- Money comes in bunches.
That one says it all. You can’t force trades. You can’t simply work harder in order to be ‘in sync’. Sometimes you are, sometimes you are not. You simply have to accept that as being part of the trading business. What you can do, is to closely monitor if your performance is in sync with the market’s performance. If the markets make new highs and your overall portfolio is going down something is wrong. You need to address that issue. Fast. The best way is to step aside and drastically reduce exposure and risk. That’s what I did.
- Trading should be effortless.
A true piece of wisdom. In my experience when I trade well it is like shooting fish in a barrel. Almost everything works. I don’t need to be overly patient with positions. The money comes in very fast. That’s exactly how trading should be. The exact opposite was the case during the first 2 months of this year. So I did what I had to do. I recognized the situation for what it was and admitted my efforts were not leading my portfolio anywhere. It was like folding when you are dealt a bad hand in poker. So I folded. Now I am waiting for the next hand. If it is a bad one I fold again. If a series of trades start to really go my way I push it hard and increase exposure and trade aggressively.
- When in doubt stay out.
This one is key. That’s how I interpret the adage: It doesn’t mean you don’t trust your instincts or your methodology. As a trader you should adapt to new situations. You constantly analyze the markets and your performance. Then you adjust your trading. Then you compare your expectations with the actual outcome. Then you adjust your trading. Then you repeat the process. At times things simply do not work. That’s when doubt creeps in. You know something is not ‘feeling right’. Your job is to protect your capital. Your job is not ‘to be right’. Put another way: You should be able to exit or reduce exposure without the need for explanations. The markets usually give you those explanations at some later point in time.
Market Gravitates or We Spot those LEVELS…. Mystery !!
Here in this very space we have written Y’day and updated today intra-day too: @ 9106 wrote to Sell CNX Bank INDEX on any Rise. It would tumble to 8719 level very shortly. Bang on… just in 48 hrs it collapsed to exactly our level, precisely 8715, a whooping fall of 400 points.
In the same breathe you were forewarned that for NF not crossing 5165-68 would weaken it to 4994 – 4970 levels. Exactly from 5168 of y’day it has nosedived uptill 5017.
These are indices: Non-manipulatable, Non-influential. How did it happen, who did it, can there be any attributes at all !!!! Its our ever dependable charts, Analytical skills and wisdom of Insight. Collectively Technical Analysis. Just Pure Intelligence.
Yesterday I written about Bank stocks…Just click here
Read Yesterday’s Guesstimates
Many Traders had asked about MTNL…..and they say I don’t about failure calls.First of all about MTNL….Technically was /still looking hot …But I had written many times never act blindly in market and always consider price as Father of stock/Commodity.
-Now click here and see…the reason ..Why MTNL had crashed in yesterday’s trade.
Now about Failure calls.If I recommend any stock or do analysis then I always write Support/Resistance levels. (more…)
Wisdom is knowing the limits of your knowledge
What does it mean to be wise? What is Wisdom?
One of the more interesting aspects to wisdom is self-awareness. “Thinking about wisdom,” writes Stephen Hall in his book Wisdom: From Philosophy to Neuroscience, “almost inevitably inspires you to think about yourself and your relationship with the larger world.” The book is an investigation into fuzzy questions such as how can it help us shed light on the process by which we deal with big decisions and dilemmas.
He writes:
Wisdom requires an experience-based knowledge of the world (including, especially, the world of human nature). It requires mental focus, reflecting the ability to analyze and discern the most important aspects of acquired knowledge, knowing what to use and what to discard, almost on a case by case basis (put another way, it requires knowing when to follow rules, but also when the usual rules no longer apply). It requires mediating, refereeing, between the frequently conflicting inputs of emotion and reason, of narrow self-interest and broader social interest, of instant rewards or future gains. Moreover, it expresses itself through an insistently social vocabulary of interactive behavior: a fundamental sense of justice (which is sometimes described as an innate form of morality, of knowing right from wrong), a commitment to welfare of social (and, for that matter, genetic) units that extend beyond the self, and the ability to defer immediate self-gratification in order to achieve the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people. (more…)
Trading Wisdom From Jesse Livermore
Don’t Avoid Exit Strategies
“It was the same with all. They would not take a small loss at first but had held on, in the hope of a recovery that would let them out even. And prices had sunk and sunk until the loss was so great that it seemed only proper to hold on, if need be a year, for sooner or later prices must come back. But the break shook them out, and prices just went so much lower because so many people had to sell, whether they would or not.”
Jesse Livermore
Hope, Fear and Greed
“The spectator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.”
Jesse Livermore
What is Money
I came across the nugget of wisdom last night in Farmer Boy.
He waited till Father stopped talking and looked at him.
“What is it, son?” Father asked.
Almanzo was scared. “Father,” he said.
“Well, son?”
“Father,” Almanzo said, “would you–would you give me–a nickel?”
He stood there while Father and Mr. Paddock looked at him, and he
wished he could get away.
“What for?”
Almanzo looked down at his moccasins and muttered:
“Frank had a nickel. He bought pink lemonade.”
“Well,” Father said, slowly, “if Frank treated you, its’ only right
you should treat him.” Father put his hand in his pocket. Then he
stopped and asked:
“Did Frank treat you to lemonade?”
Almanzo wanted so badly to get the nickel that he nodded. Then he
squirmed and said:
“No, Father.”
Father looked at him a long time. Then took out his wallet and opened
it, and slowly he took out a round big silver half-dollar. He asked:
“Almanzo, do you know what this is?”
“Half a dollar,” Almanzo answered.
“Yes. But do you know what half a dollar is?”
Almanzo didn’t know it was anything but half a dollar.
“It’s work, son,” Father said. “That’s what money is; it’s hard work.”
……
“How much do you get for half a bushel of potatoes?”
“Half a dollar,” Almanzo said.
“Yes,” said Father. “That’s what’s in this half-dollar, Almanzo. The work that raised half a bushel of potatoes is in it.”Almanzo looked at the round piece of money that Father held up. It looked small, compared to all that work.”You can have it, Almanzo,” Father said. Almanzo could hardly believe his ears. Father gave him the heavy half dollar.”It’s yours,” said Father. “You could buy a suckling pig with it, if you want to. You could raise it and it would raise a litter of pigs,worth four, five dollars apiece. Or you can trade that half-dollar for lemondade, and drink it up. You do as you want, it’s your money.”