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Quotes for Traders

Planning, Discipline & Patience.
  • ‘Predicting rain does n’t count; building arks does’: Warren Buffett’s Noah Rule.
  • “To know and not to do, is not yet to know” – Courtesy of Tom Witters.
  • ‘It’s easy to have faith in yourself and have discipline when you’re a winner, when you’re number one. What you got to have is faith and discipline when you’re not a winner.’ – Vince Lombardi
  • ‘After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!’ – Jesse Livermore

Fear

  • ‘Never let fear of striking out, get in your way’: Babe Ruth.

Perspectives

  • ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,’ – Lawrence Peter ‘Yoggi’ Berra.
  • “go as far as you can see, and when you get there , you will see further.” –
  • anonymous
  • ‘Don’t worry what others think… They don’t do it very often’ – Courtesy of Mark Carstens.
  • “A little learning is a dangerous thing, but we must take that risk because a little is as much as our biggest heads can hold.” – George Bernard Shaw.
  • “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” – George Santayana.
  • “Glory is fleeting but obscurity is eternal” – Napoleon
  • ‘A long term investment is when I break even.’ – Courtesy of David Wong.
  • “There are many truths, but only one reality” – Courtesy of Robin Farrell.
  • ‘It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up.’ – Vince Lombardi.
  • ‘We would accomplish many more things if we did not think of them as impossible.’ – Vince Lombardi
  • “Vision – It reaches beyond the thing that is, into the conception of what can be. Imagination gives you the picture. Vision gives you the impulse to make the picture your own.” – Robert Collier.
  • “If you’re 30 minutes into the game and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.” – Courtesy of Saranjot Dosanjh.
  • ‘Price is observable and objective while value is perceived and subjective’. – John Murphy.
  • ‘In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.’ – Yogi Berra.
  • “As a rule, Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works…. The Failure of great banks… and mercantile firms…are the symptoms incident to the disease, not the disease itself.” – John Stuart Mill (1867).
  • ‘You need three bear markets to know what to do. The first nearly wipes you out, the second you learn how to survive and the third you take by the scruff of the neck and enjoy it.’ – Crispin Odey of Odey Asset Management.
  • “Never in recorded history, has the supply of capital not overwhelmed the supply of opportunity.” – Joseph Lassiter .
  • ‘You only live once but if you work it right, once is enough’. – Joe E. Lewis.
  • “If you really know whats going on, you don’t even have to know whats going on to know whats going on… You can ignore the headlines because you anticipated them months ago” – Michael Steinhardt.
  • ‘Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.’ – Jesse Livermore.
  • “Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.” – Soros.

On Losses (and Profits). 

  • ‘Tradings only real secret is… The best loser is the long-term winner’ – Phantom
  • “Trading is a losing game, the best loser is the long-term winner” – Anonymous.
  • ‘Losses can either be lost money, or tuition in the school of trading’ – Courtesy of Mark Moskowitz.
  • ‘The worst advice I use to get was. – ‘No one went broke taking a profit’’. – Courtesy of John Berra.
  • “It seems that the necessary thing to do is not to fear mistakes, to plunge in, to do the best that one can, hoping to learn enough from blunders to correct them eventually.” – Abraham Maslow
  • ‘“Learn to like your losses”. Why? Because they are small!’ – Courtesy of Stuart A.Brown.
  • “One common adage…that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits.” – William Eckhardt.
  • “Its not about being right or wrong, rather, its about how much money you make when you’re right and how much you don’t lose when you’re wrong.” – George Soros.
  • “The first loss is the best loss.” – Jim Rogers.
  • “Losers average Losers”…Paul Tudor Jones.
  • “You learn nothing from your winners and everything from your losers.” – Courtesy of Jeff Horn.
  • ·“To become a Master Trader, you must first be a successful loser.” – Jeff Horn.

Ego

  • “Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.” – Paul Tudor Jones

Personal Responsibility and Self-awarenss (more…)

Schwager’s New Hedge Market Wizards Book w/ Dalio, Thorp, Woodriff

Looks like Schwager is putting out a new version of his famous Market Wizards series.  Personally I’d like to see a “where are they now” from the past few books. (His other books here.)
Hedge Fund Market Wizards
Table of Contents
Introduction
Part I: Macro Men
Chapter 1 Colm O’Shea: Knowing When It’s Raining
Chapter 2 Ray Dalio: The Man Who Loves Mistakes
Chapter 3 Scott Ramsey: Low-Risk Futures Trader
Chapter 4 Jamie Mai: Seeking Asymmetry
Chapter 5 Jaffray Woodriff: The Third Way
Part II: Multi
Chapter 6 Edward Thorp: The Innovator
Chapter 7 Larry Benedict: Beyond Three Strikes
Chapter 8 Michael Platt: The Art and Science of Risk Control
Part III: Equity
Chapter 9 Steve Clark: Do more of What Works and Less of What Doesn’t
Chapter 10 Martin Taylor: The Tsar Has No Clothes
Chapter 11 Tom Claugus: A Change of Plans
Chapter 12 Joe Vidich: Harvesting Losses
Chapter 13 Kevin Daly: Who Is Warren Buffett?
Chapter 14 Jimmy Balodimas: Stepping in Front of Freight Trains
Chapter 15 Joel Greenblatt: The Magic Formula
Conclusion 40 Market Wizard Lessons
Appendix 1 The Gain to Pain Ratio
Appendix 2 TITLE TK

Great Reply from Warren Buffett

This week is the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, the gigantic conglomerate run by billionaire Warren Buffett.

 Buffett has a way of explaining complicated finance topics so that they’re fun and understandable.

Carleton English of Belus Capital Advisors points us to this gem of a quote from 2008 where he takes a jab at private equity.

Someone had asked the Oracle of Omaha why people sell their companies to him instead of private equity firms.  This is the type of question that you might hear later this week.  Here’s Buffett’s response:

“You can sell it to Berkshire, and we’ll put it in the Metropolitan Museum; it’ll have a wing all by itself; it’ll be there forever. Or you can sell it to some porn shop operator, and he’ll take the painting and he’ll make the boobs a little bigger and he’ll stick it up in the window, and some other guy will come along in a raincoat, and he’ll buy it.” (more…)

Conventional Wisdom

conventional_wisdom_2Conventional wisdom is defined as: the generally accepted belief, opinion, judgment, or prediction about a particular matter.

Conventional wisdom is almost universally agreed upon by everyone that it rarely gets questioned, even if sometimes the belief isn’t really true.

The conventional wisdom with regards to investing is to buy and hold great companies for long periods of time so that your portfolio compounds with capital appreciation and dividend re-investment.  This approach has strong validity and is best exemplified by Warren Buffett.  He has the long term returns to prove it.

But it may not be for everybody, or else everyone would have invested like Warren Buffett.  Very few have the right skill set to buy-and-hold and be successful like Buffett, or be successful for decades.

In short term trading, the conventional wisdom is enter stocks at pivot points, trade small and cut your losses and let your gains run, and use risk and money management.  Very few can succeed with the short term trading approach, due to lack of skillset or lack of discipline.  Also, in the short term, the market fluctuates too much so that stoplosses get frequently hit.  Even if successful, it is doubtful many can beat the returns of buy-and-hold investors in the long run.

Another conventional wisdom is that in order to get bigger returns, one has to dramatically increase risk.  Like getting into leverage instruments such as options, futures and penny stocks.  Very few can succeed long term via this route, mainly due to the extreme risk factor.  

One can go through a lifetime or even several lifetimes and still cannot get through the stock market dilemma and confusion.  For many people, only through a paradigm shift in thinking and approach can they increase their chances of  market success.

A paradigm shift is a change in accepted theories, opinions or approaches, a step above and beyond, and is almost always better than the conventional wisdom.  That’s why it’s called a paradigm shift.
 
The question is:

Is there such a paradigm-shifting stock market approach out there?

Classic Wall Street Quotations

Soros, Buffett, Templeton, Livermore, Rothschild – This is the remix.  I’ve updated their classic quotations for the modern investment world.  Vote for your favorites below…Enjoy!

“We simply attempt to be greedy when others are fearful and to make others fearful when we do not have enough long positions on our sheets.” – Warren Buffett

“Capital goes to where it can escape taxation and be used to pay employees in sacks of rice.” – Walter Wriston

“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in the creation and marketing of ETFs.” – George Soros

“It takes 150 years to build an investment bank and only five minutes to convince you to sell me preferred stock in it at a 10% interest rate.” – Warren Buffett

“The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘It’s the Lightning Round!'”. – Sir John Templeton

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market had a Flash Crash.” – Warren Buffett

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can pretend that Treasuries yielding a half a percent are a safe buy.” – John Maynard Keynes

“History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of my policies” – Alan Greenspan

“Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market and a renter in the housing market and open-minded to exotic sh*t at Jean-Georges’ Spice Market.” – Jesse Livermore

“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not how much it owes China.” – Mayer Amschel Rothschild

“Man looks in the abyss, there’s nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man gets a text message, an eFax and two Twitter DMs.  And by the time he’s updating his Facebook status and feeding his virtual farm animals, he has no idea what ‘abyss’ you’re talking about.” – Lou Mannheim, Wall Street

“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?  How about around 2007 when I was walking around with a crown and a scepter, spraying Crystal on chicks in the VIP room. I was probably a little irrationally exuberant right around then, holmes.” – Alan Greenspan

“Money is like manure, you don’t have to spread it around, you can just sell it to Potash Corp as fertilizer.” – J. Paul Getty

“The time of maximum optimism is the time to sell and the time of maximum pessimism is the time to start a blog and write 20 posts a day about gold.” – Sir John Templeton

“Rule No. 1 – Never Lose Money.  Rule No. 2 – When you do lose money, call in Becky Quick and the camera crew for some folksy chit chat over root beer floats.” – Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett on Chocolate and Candy

The following video of Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A) Warren Buffett, gives great insight into how he thinks before making an investment, how he created value added for the company, and increased sales substantially. No wonder why he is a billionaire and top trader and investor.

In the video, he discusses his purchase of See’s Candies, which operates over 200 retail shops in the western United States. You will also see Buffett’s sense of humor. If you have never had See’s Candies, you need to try some at your first opportunity. You will love the peanut brittle, my favorite.


 


If you think there are investment opportunities with other candy companies, here are a couple worth looking at.

Hershey (HSY), founded in 1894, is the largest manufacturer of chocolate in North America and one of the largest chocolate and candy companies in the world. Hershey’s Kisses were invented in 1901 and their chocolate chips were introduced in 1928. The stock has a P/E of 22, a forward PE of 17, with a flavorful yield of 2.8%. It sports a PEG ratio of 2.39.

Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR) is known for its ever famous Tootsie Rolls. It also produces Apple Pops, Charms, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, and Tootsie Roll Pops. The stock has a P/E and forward PE of 26 and sports a yield of 1.3%.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Willingness to Kill

I’m poring over the just-release 2014 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders today and, as usual, I’m finding nuggets of wisdom on every single page.

One really interesting bit I wanted to pass on concerns a crucial benefit that their conglomerate structure offers. In countering the idea that Berkshire should break itself up or spin off some businesses to “unlock shareholder value”, Warren Buffett explains a key advantage that his collection of companies offers – beyond the obvious ability to self-fund.

He reminds his shareholders that being able to channel capital across opportunities and be willing to walk away from a dying industry is critical to the corporation’s longevity. He laments the twenty years between 1965 and 1985 that he allowed the legacy New England textile assets to decay before finally pulling the plug. He talks about the conflicts that a more singularly-focused corporation might have when its central line of business goes into secular decline.

One of the heralded virtues of capitalism is that it efficiently allocates funds. The argument is that markets will direct investment to promising businesses and deny it to those destined to wither. That is true: With all its excesses, market-driven allocation of capital is usually far superior to any alternative. Nevertheless, there are often obstacles to the rational movement of capital. As those 1954 Berkshire minutes made clear, capital withdrawals within the textile industry that should have been obvious were delayed for decades because of the vain hopes and self-interest of managements. Indeed, I myself delayed abandoning our obsolete textile mills for far too long. A CEO with capital employed in a declining operation seldom elects to massively redeploy that capital into unrelated activities. A move of that kind would usually require that long-time associates be fired and mistakes be admitted. Moreover, it’s unlikely that CEO would be the manager you would wish to handle the redeployment job even if he or she was inclined to undertake it…

…At Berkshire, we can – without incurring taxes or much in the way of other costs – move huge sums from businesses that have limited opportunities for incremental investment to other sectors with greater promise. Moreover, we are free of historical biases created by lifelong association with a given industry and are not subject to pressures from colleagues having a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. That’s important: If horses had controlled investment decisions, there would have been no auto industry.
 
 

(more…)

Buffett builds Munich Re stake

Munich_ReWarren Buffett, the US investor, has expanded his reinsurance holdings by becoming one of the largest shareholders in industry giant Munich Re. Buffett has built a stake worth €660m ($934m) in the German reinsurer, according to a market announcement triggered when his stake rose above 3%. It makes him the second-largest investor in Munich Re, after US asset manager BlackRock with almost 4.6%.

30 NUGGETS OF STOCK MARKET WISDOM

“Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything.”  Ben Graham

“ Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets.” Old French Proverb

“A stock broker is one who invests other people’s money until its all gone.”  Woody Allen

“It is fortunate for Wall Street as an institution that a small minority of people can trade successfully and that many others think they can.” Ben Graham

“Wall Street indices predicted nine out of the last five recessions!” Paul Samuelson

“ There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor –the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.” William Bernstein

“The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind.” Gordon Gekko

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”  George Soros

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”  Mark Twain

“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” Warren Buffett

“Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.”  Warren Buffett

“A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim.”  Kenneth Chang

“The four most dangerous words in investing are “This time it’s different”.   John Templeton

“Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery.” Spike Milligan

“If you don’t follow the stock market, you are missing some amazing drama.”  Mark Cuban

“The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.”  Jesse Livermore

In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.” Peter Lynch

“ Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” John Maynard Keynes

“The markets will return to rationality the moment you have been rendered insolvent.” Dennis Gartman

“Risk is good. Not properly managing your risk is a dangerous leap” Evel Knievel

“Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.” Donald Trump

“The most predictable thing about the stock market is the number of experts who take credit for predicting it.” Dave Weinbaum

“I have probably purchased fifty ‘hot tips’ in my career, maybe even more. When I put them all together, I know I am a net loser.” Charles Schwab

“Money talks… but all mine ever says is good-bye.” Anon

“Don’t gamble! Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it ‘till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” Will Rogers

“Give me a stock clerk with a goal and I’II give you a man who will make history. Give me a man with no goals and I’II give you a stock clerk.” James Cash

Never make forecasts, especially about the future.”  Samuel Goldwin

“Stocks are bought on expectations, not facts.” Gerald M. Loeb

“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability to realize at the height of the ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.” John Bogle

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” Shelby Davis

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