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Conventional Wisdom

conventional_wisdom_2Conventional wisdom is defined as: the generally accepted belief, opinion, judgment, or prediction about a particular matter.

Conventional wisdom is almost universally agreed upon by everyone that it rarely gets questioned, even if sometimes the belief isn’t really true.

The conventional wisdom with regards to investing is to buy and hold great companies for long periods of time so that your portfolio compounds with capital appreciation and dividend re-investment.  This approach has strong validity and is best exemplified by Warren Buffett.  He has the long term returns to prove it.

But it may not be for everybody, or else everyone would have invested like Warren Buffett.  Very few have the right skill set to buy-and-hold and be successful like Buffett, or be successful for decades.

In short term trading, the conventional wisdom is enter stocks at pivot points, trade small and cut your losses and let your gains run, and use risk and money management.  Very few can succeed with the short term trading approach, due to lack of skillset or lack of discipline.  Also, in the short term, the market fluctuates too much so that stoplosses get frequently hit.  Even if successful, it is doubtful many can beat the returns of buy-and-hold investors in the long run.

Another conventional wisdom is that in order to get bigger returns, one has to dramatically increase risk.  Like getting into leverage instruments such as options, futures and penny stocks.  Very few can succeed long term via this route, mainly due to the extreme risk factor.  

One can go through a lifetime or even several lifetimes and still cannot get through the stock market dilemma and confusion.  For many people, only through a paradigm shift in thinking and approach can they increase their chances of  market success.

A paradigm shift is a change in accepted theories, opinions or approaches, a step above and beyond, and is almost always better than the conventional wisdom.  That’s why it’s called a paradigm shift.
 
The question is:

Is there such a paradigm-shifting stock market approach out there?

DOUG HIRSCHHORN’S 8 WAYS TO GREAT

I just completed reading a book 8 WAYS TO GREAT.  It is short (114 pages) but packed with great insight on what makes great people great.  I read it in a few hours and as is the case in all the books I read I highlight major points and make margin notes about what strikes me as important enough to share with others.  What follows are the eight principles or “ways to great” and the quotes I found worth passing along.

First Principle: Find Your “Why?”

“The reason most people go through life with big dreams but fail to achieve them is because they ask themselves “how” before they know their “why”(9).

Second Principle: Get To Know Yourself

“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence.  He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure.  He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door.  He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself.  In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally” (18-19).

Third Principle:  Learn To Love The Process

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year.  They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process” (38).

Fourth Principle:  Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp.  On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table.  The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed” (45).

Fifth Principle:  Be All That You Can Be

“The takeaway lesson for everyone wanting to optimize their own performance without regard for what others are doing is fourfold: 1) know your edge; 2) act only when you have the edge; 3) avoid taking the outcome personally because it involves factors that are beyond your control; 4) measure your success in terms of how well you performed and not only the outcome” (70).

Sixth Principle: Keep Your Cool

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make” (77).

Seventh Principle: Get Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable

“In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong.  Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool.  Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money” (90).

Eighth Principle: Make Yourself Accountable

“Commitment, perseverance, and discipline are the characteristics that move people beyond desire to action, that differentiate mediocrity from greatness, and that separate greatness from superstardom” (95).

And to sum up: “True success begins with a state of mind.  But it takes specific actions and behaviors to move from intentions into action and get results” (2)

Book Review : The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas

 This is one heck of a slow read. Douglas dangles a carrot in front of you each chapter saying ” I will show you how to do this”; but never actually does! I thought there was quite a bit of carry over between this book and “Trading in the Zone”, so by one or the other but on the whole I would say Trading in the Zone would be the one to plump for as there are more trading references. In The Disciplined Trader Douglas does go off on a tangent for many pages and you wonder whether you are reading a book on amateur psychology.

The first 5 Chapters read well with some nice takeaways even in the Intro and Preface. Such as defining Self Confidence as “an absence of fear and self-trust”. I think we all know what he means ny that definition don’t we ?!

Chapters 6 thru to 14 were laboured in my view. Where the depth of Douglas’ attempt to describe the mental state of the trader really was a little abstract at times and to be honest lost me.

For me the best bit of the book was his penultimate chapter on the Steps for Success :

1)Stay focussed on what you need to learn

2)Deal with Losses

  • Predefine the loss at time of trade is vital
  • Execute them immediately on their occurence

3)Become an expect at just one market behaviour

4) Learn how to execute your trading system flawlessly

5) Learn to think in Probabilities

6) Learn to be Objective

  • You feel no Pressure to do anything
  • You have no feelings of fear
  • You have no sense of rejection
  • There is no right or wrong
  • You recognise what the market is telling you and you know what you have to do
  • You can observe the market from the perspective of not being in a position even when you are.
  • You are not focussed on money but the structure of the market

7) Learn to Monitor yourself

So if you can borrow this from a friend, download it as an e-book cheaply or get a 2nd hand one on ebay for the beginning third and last 2 chapters – it’s worth it.

Must Read…….!!