Fed’s Barkin says the dot plot is not FOMC policy

Barkin is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, he has some comments crossing on the wires.

Speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview.


  • you want yields to respond to what happening in the economy
  • yields reflecting good news on vaccines, fiscal aid
  • really hopeful that we’re at the back end of pandemic
  • the Fed’s interest-rate dot plot is not Federal Open Market Committee policy
  • Fed has tools to handle unwanted inflation
  • inflation is not a one-year phenomenon, it’s multi-year
  • expect to see price pressures in 2021
  • expect strong demand, met by some supply-chain issues
  • the US economy will have strong spring and summer
Re that headline I put in the, headline …. the dot plot is part of the Fed’s forward guidance. Barkin’s comments are in line with other comments from Fed officials, they are toeing the party line since Chair Powell laid down the law and told them all to shut up about tapering a month or so back.


Barkin is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, he has some comments crossing on the wires. 

Major indices post 2 day winning streak. Amazon and Google beat on earnings. Bezos to step down from CEO role

S&P post the best day to day performance since November

The major indices closed higher for the 2nd consecutive day with solid gains across the board ahead of earnings from Amazon and Google after the close.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +52.37 points or 1.39% at 3826.24
  • NASDAQ index up 209.38 points or 1.56% at 13612.77
  • Dow industrial average rose 476.23 points or 1.58% at 30688.14

After the close, both Google and Amazon have beaten on the top and bottom lines. Alphabet shares are currently trading up 4.21% to near $2000 a share.

Alphabet had
  • revenues of $56.90 billion vs. $53.13 billion estimate
  • earnings-per-share came in at $22.30 cents vs. $15.90 cents estimate
For Amazon, CEO basis said that he will transition to role of executive chair. Andy Jassy will become the new CEO of Amazon.  Jassy is a long time Amazon employee and built AWS.  The announcement is a surprise. Amazon’s basals is to focus on new products and early initiatives according to the headline news.
Amazon shares are currently trading higher by about 1.3% and volatile trading.
For Amazon:
  • Earnings-per-share came in at $14.09 vs. $7.34 estimate
  • net sales came in at $125.56 billion vs. 119.70 billion

Coronavirus – Fauci says an antibody could be ready by fall

Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci spoke with (wait for it)  Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a YouTube event.

Some of Fauci’s remarks (via Bloomberg):
  • COVID-19 is very different from the severity of the 1918 virus
  • Monoclonal antibody drug could be ready for use by fall
  • No signs that face masks could cause harm to people
Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci spoke with (wait for it)  Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a YouTube event.
A little more on his timing remark …
  • by mid-to-late fall, early winter, we’ll know whether we have candidates that are safe and effective, and I hope and anticipate that we will have one or more.
  • If that’s the case, by the end of this year, beginning of 2021, we may have one or more candidate that is actually safe and effective. That being the case we can start distributing doses widely at that time.

Ross and Soros twin towers the market

dynamite1Wilbur Ross and George Soros are out today calling for crash of commercial real estate.Read more here:


Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”

“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.” (more…)

Hedge Fund Job Titles Defined

Hedge Fund AnalystA person who spends their day tracking the activities of people whose job they would have liked.
Quantitative ResearcherA person who can attach probabilities to future events by looking backwards.
Portfolio ManagerA person who has an enormous breadth of knowledge across a range of industries and is an expert in none of them.
StrategistA person who spends their day looking down at global events from 25,000ft but never has to land to take an active decision themselves (see “ Journalist” and “Consultant”).
Head of Quantitative SolutionsA person qualified to Ph.D level who used to earn an annual bonus at a CTA.
Head of RiskThe person who stops portfolio managers earning a bonus.
In-House MarketerA person who can ascribe someone else’s success in the firm to their own activities.
Chief Operating OfficerThe person who is thought to keep hedge funds running as businesses.
Deputy Chief Operating OfficerThe person who actually keeps hedge funds running as businesses.
Chief Investment OfficerThe guy whose name is on everyone’s business card.
Head TraderChief Algo Selector
Compliance OfficerFulfills the statutory requirement to have a fifth column in every firm in the financial sector.
Head of ComplianceChief Snitch
Head of TechnologyThe only person in the firm authorised to have self-defined mission-critical costs no-one else understands.
Head of Investor RelationsThe person that works with the most important existing clients to tidy up the s*** created by the CIO.
Chief Executive OfficerThe person individually chosen by the founder and Chief Investment Officer to buy the paperclips and liaise with the auditors.

John Taylor Of The World's Largest Currency Hedge Fund Sees Euro Dropping To $1.20 By August

John Taylor, chairman and chief executive officer of FX Concepts LLC, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, sees the euro dropping to $1.20 by August, and believes parity is possible. Be very careful, because as of today Goldman is now accumulating euros (as per its just released Sell recommendation). More from Taylor: “It’s going to be quick because things are really falling apart…. Some of these [countries] have to be thrown out [of the EMU]. If you look at a country like Latvia, which has been effectively in the Euro, has been saved by the European Commission and the IMF much like they are suggesting Greece will be, their retail sales were down 30% last year, the GDP was down 18%, it is expected to drop another 8% this year. Latvians are starving, the place is a disaster area: that’s what you have to go through to be a part of the Euro.” On whether his firm has felt any political pressure on putting on bearish euro bets: “None at all. We are SEC regulated and the information is there, but nobody seems to be caring.” Lastly, Taylor ridicules the WSJ story about the restaurant-based collusion: “Yes, they had a meeting and talked about how bad the euro was. But that they in fact had some impact: their assets are 1% of the daily volume. Somebody like us, we have a bigger position against the euro than those people put on.” Taylor says in the next three to six months, the dollar will be strongest against the euro, and Eastern European currencies. In a longer horizon, he says to be long Asia and short the euro. Bottom line: sell Europe, buy everyone else. And join the bandwagon… Just as Bernanke prepares the dollar’s next suicide move with inflation obviously not working.

Citigroup ceo wants to thank you for the $45 billion bailout

March 4 (Bloomberg)Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit plans to tell U.S. taxpayers he’s grateful for the $45 billion bailout that helped stave off a deposit run at the bank in 2008, a person close to the company said.

Pandit, scheduled to appear in Washington today before a panel overseeing the bank-bailout program, will acknowledge that the infusion stabilized Citigroup, said the person, who requested anonymity because the planned testimony isn’t public. Pandit will thank the government for providing the money, the person said

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