“Gambling is taking a risk when the odds are against you. Speculating is taking a risk when the odds are in your favor.” Victor Sperandeo
“the only difference between gambling and trading is that your amount at risk and amount of potential reward varies with trading.” I agree, but there’s more to it. The parallels are obvious, from the lack of control over outcome to the illusion of knowledge to the physiological effects of having a stake in the outcome. However, the differences are substantial…and mostly mathematical.
The expectancy in gambling is ALWAYS terrible, while market speculation at times offers outstanding opportunities. To get a 2:1 or 3:1 opportunity in gambling, one needs to accept incredibly low odds of victory. In financial markets, those 2:1 or above opportunities come around like clockwork and offer high enough probability that long-term positive expectancy is possible. Not only that, but the market speculator has the opportunity to adjust his or her position after the game begins…when was the last horse race where you could take a little off the table after the first turn? Or reclaim most of your bet when your horse stumbles out of the gate?
I’ll leave the neuroscience to the experts, but it seems to me that we need to coordinate our left brain(rational) and right brain(experiential) in laying out the role of each. We want to allow our intuition to shine through, but within the overall structure of positive expectancy. No matter how hard one tries, the math of gambling can’t come close to touching the opportunities for building a business out of the markets.
The rules are not hard to understand. Recognizing a profit from a loss is simple. If the rules are easy to grasp and a profit is distinguishable from a loss, where does the problem lie? What makes it so hard to apply the rules? There is something within each of us that has a power over our minds that prevents our acting according to what we have agreed is the proper course of action. That something is present in all of us and is very powerful, more powerful than anything I know. Let’s call it ego. Until we learn to get rid of our ego, we will never make money in the market consistently. Those who haven’t identified the ego’s ways will eventually be destroyed in the market because of their ego’s tendencies. It is just that powerful. The market rewards those who have subdued their egos. Those who rid themselves of their egos are rewarded greatly. They are the superstars of their fields. In the market, rewards come in the form of profits. In the world of art, masterpieces are the results. In sports, the players are all-stars and command enormous salaries. Every pursuit has its own manifestation of victory over the ego.
Actual winning/losing of a trade is unimportant. Time for European headlines. Because we haven’t had any in about 3 minutes or so. Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is Angela Merkel doing her best channeling of Hank Paulson.
And most importantly…
True, many, many strokes will be needed. But what about the market which has already priced in not only the Magic Wand but the Quidditch match victory over Slitherin. What now?
Sun Tzu’s Art of War is a classic piece of work that is widely read and applied to many fields, due to it’s fundamental nature that is highly adaptable to many areas of our lives. In this post, I extracted parts of the work and applied to trading and in doing so, hope to introduce the important trading concepts to you. I have also group and categorize them for easy understanding.
To put it in the context of trading, I have rationalised the following terms:
– General = You, the trader
– Battle = Trading the market/making a trade
– Men, Soldiers = Your capital, dollars!
ON WINNING IN THE MARKET
“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.”
Calculations are to be made prior to any trade. What is the risk-reward ratio? What is the stop loss level and the amount that I am willing to lose? What is the size of position to take? How much leverage can I take? If the price moves to $XXX, what action should I take? What is my price objective? What is the proabability of winning? These are just questions that need to be answered and determined BEFORE a trade is made. THE BATTLE/TRADE IS WON BEFORE IT IS FOUGHT/MADE.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” (more…)
Sun Tzu’s Art of War is a classic piece of work that is widely read and applied to many fields, due to it’s fundamental nature that is highly adaptable to many areas of our lives. In this post, I extracted parts of the work and applied to trading and in doing so, hope to introduce the important trading concepts to you. I have also group and categorize them for easy understanding.
To put it in the context of trading, I have rationalised the following terms:
– General = You, the trader
– Battle = Trading the market/making a trade
– Men, Soldiers = Your capital, dollars!
ON WINNING IN THE MARKET
“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.”
Calculations are to be made prior to any trade. What is the risk-reward ratio? What is the stop loss level and the amount that I am willing to lose? What is the size of position to take? How much leverage can I take? If the price moves to $XXX, what action should I take? What is my price objective? What is the proabability of winning? These are just questions that need to be answered and determined BEFORE a trade is made. THE BATTLE/TRADE IS WON BEFORE IT IS FOUGHT/MADE.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” (more…)
The expectancy in gambling is ALWAYS terrible, while market speculation at times offers outstanding opportunities. To get a 2:1 or 3:1 opportunity in gambling, one needs to accept incredibly low odds of victory. In financial markets, those 2:1 or above opportunities come around like clockwork and offer high enough probability that long-term positive expectancy is possible. Not only that, but the market speculator has the opportunity to adjust his or her position after the game begins…when was the last horse race where you could take a little off the table after the first turn? Or reclaim most of your bet when your horse stumbles out of the gate?
Actual winning/losing of a trade is unimportant. 
The rules are not hard to understand. Recognizing a profit from a loss is simple. If the rules are easy to grasp and a profit is distinguishable from a loss, where does the problem lie? What makes it so hard to apply the rules? There is something within each of us that has a power over our minds that prevents our acting according to what we have agreed is the proper course of action. That something is present in all of us and is very powerful, more powerful than anything I know. Let’s call it ego. Until we learn to get rid of our ego, we will never make money in the market consistently. Those who haven’t identified the ego’s ways will eventually be destroyed in the market because of their ego’s tendencies. It is just that powerful. The market rewards those who have subdued their egos. Those who rid themselves of their egos are rewarded greatly. They are the superstars of their fields. In the market, rewards come in the form of profits. In the world of art, masterpieces are the results. In sports, the players are all-stars and command enormous salaries. Every pursuit has its own manifestation of victory over the ego.
