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Essentials of a Winning Psychology

  
  Education
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fear-1
Four fears that block a winning psychology:

  1. Fear of Loss
  2. Fear of being wrong
  3. Fear of missing out
  4. Fear of leaving money on the table.

Realize that trading is based on probabilities, as such, every trade is unique. In other words, the past does not equal the future.

Probability thinking manifest other states and beliefs:
  • Because we know that we will succeed in the long run and because we know we will protect ourselves no matter what the market does, we acquire the state of “self trust” and the state of being “carefree”.

In turn these states allow us to remain….

  • Focused, confident and carefree when we are experiencing the inevitable prolonged drawdown.
  • Because at the micro level we know that the market is random, we will not allow euphoria to set in and lead us to reckless trades. Each trade will only be one in a series of probabilities.
  • We will view market information not as a source of pleasure or pain but merely as data providing us with opportunities.

Personal Attributes Essential to a Winning Mentality
  • Awareness – the ability to step outside ourselves and observe. The more effectively we can do this, the easier our progress to “Acceptance”.
  • Honesty – the ability to seek to perceive reality in spite of our filters.
  • Courage – the willingness to bear the pain brought about by our awareness and honesty.
  • Commitment – the willingness to do whatever is necessary to achieve our goals

To succeed, a trader must have a vision about where he is heading, and must internalise that a winning attitude is total submission to the trading outcome.
This means managing Fear and Euphoria. To do this, we need to ACCEPT, with every fibre of our body, the belief that at the micro level the market is uncertain and unpredictable and at the macro level it is relatively certain and predictable.

50 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
2. Keep records of your trading results.
3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
4. Don’t take the market home.
5. Continually set higher trading goals.
6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
11. Limit your losses – use stops!
12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
19. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
21. You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
22. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
23. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
24. The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point. (more…)

Cut your losses and let your winners ride

  
  Education
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This quote is the perfect corollary to Livermore’s. Just as he preached “sitting”, letting your winners ride is the same idea. If you have on a position and it’s working, let it make you money. Don’t cut it prematurely for the sake of booking a small profit. Don’t get scared and exit on the first reaction, when all of your trading rules dictate staying in. If it’s a winner, and it’s working, then let it ride. Winners are good—embrace them.

The important flip side is how to treat losing trades. The first lesson is that losers have to be cut at some point.  Otherwise, a losing trade can keep eating away at your P&L, undoing the profits from any winning positions. If you cut losses at a pre-defined level, then they stop—and presumably your wins can be larger than your losses.

The math behind this is compelling. If you assume that your average winner make 1.6x what your average loser loses, then you only need to be right 40% of the time in order to make money consistently. By keeping the leash short on your losses, then you can let the math of statistical expectation work in your favor. Cut losses and let your winners ride.

There is another aspect to this. A loser isn’t just a trade where you get stopped out at a pre-defined loss limit. Imagine a trade that isn’t making money and has just been languishing on your books—this is also a loser. Cut it, free up financial and mental capital  and move on.

The Win/Loss Ratio

  
  Education
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42-21056354“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. … (more…)

Evaluating Yourself as a Trader

  
  Education
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Here I’ve shortened and republished ten items for self-evaluation:

1) What is the quality of your self-talk while trading?

2) What work do you do on yourself and your trading while the market is closed?

3) How would your trading profit/loss profile change if you eliminated a few days where you lacked proper risk control?

4) Does the size of your positions reflect the opportunity you see in the market?

5) Are trading losses often followed by further trading losses due to frustration?

6) Do you cut winning trades short because, deep inside, you don’t think you’ll be able to achieve large profits?

7) Is trading making you happy, proud, fulfilled, and content, or does it more often leave you feeling unhappy, guilty, frustrated, and dissatisfied?

8) Are you making trades because the market is giving you opportunity, or are you placing trades to fulfill needs–for excitement, self-esteem, recognition–that aren’t being met in the rest of your life?

9) Are you seeking returns that are realistic given your level of experience and development?

10) Can you identify the specific edges you possess over the many other motivated, interested traders that fail to achieve success in the markets?

Many answers to trading problems begin by asking the right questions.

7 Mantras For Successful Trading

  
  Education
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1. Losing traders fear losses and crave profits. Winning traders eliminate both fear and greed. 
Great traders experienced a lot of losses and drawdowns in their lifes, so they don’t fear them. Losses are already familiar to them.
They know, that the biggest enemy of a trader are emotions. So the best attitude is not to be influenced by fear of loss or desire for profits. The more you fear something, the more you’ll experience it. The more you desire something, the less benefits you’ll have from it. 
If you’re scared of driving at high speeds, Formula 1 career will never be a good option for you. If you’re scared of losses, trading will also never be a activity suited for you. 
2. Losing traders care where the market will move in an hour, today or tomorrow. Winning traders don’t care where the market will go. 
Why manual traders are so attached to their positions or market direction? The deep psychological reason behind it, is that they’ve made the trades with their own hands and heads. So they start worrying about the outcome. The automated systematic traders on the other hand, let computer programs do the job, so they cannot blame themselves or the market for the outcome of particular trades. 
Why it is important in trading? The less you worry about the positions and about market direction, the less emotions can negatively impact your trading. 
3. Losing traders look for 100% return a month. Winning traders look for 100% return a year (without compounding). 
To achieve 100% return in a month, you have to trade with very high leverage. The most probable result trading with too high leverage is -100%. Winning traders use medium to low leverage. They may lose 30% from time to time, but with proper strategies, they are able to double the account every year. And if they combine medium leverage with the power of compounding , returns can be much higher.  (more…)

Money Management & Positive Expectancy

  
  Education
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india_moneyA good trading system gives you an edge in the market.
To use a technical term, it provides a positive expectancy over a long series of trials.
A good system ensures that winning is more likely than losing over a long series of trades.
If your system can do that, you need money management.
But if you have no positive expectancy, no amount of money management will save you from losing.

Are you a discretionary trader?

  
  Education
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How would you be able to tell?  Here is a quiz that will help you decide.  Answer Yes or No to the following questions.

  1. Do you sometimes buy newsletter recommendations without having a real plan for how you’ll get out of the trade?
  2. Do you occasionally (or often) take trades based upon some interesting indicator that you learned in a workshop (i.e., when you see that indicator go, you usually get into a trade, but again you have no real plan about how you’ll get out of the trade)?
  3. Do you trade three or more different systems in the same account?
  4. Do you trade more than ten different systems?
  5. Do you sometimes enter a trade and later not remember why?
  6. Are you unsure of how many systems you have?
  7. Do most of your systems lack a complete set of rules to guide your behavior?
  8. Are your systems equivalent to the setups used to get into the trades and nothing more?
  9. Are you unable to list the rules for the last trade you made?
  10. Are you able to list the rules for any of the last five trades you made?

If you answered Yes to as many as two of the questions above, you have some elements of a no-rules discretionary trader. However, if you answered Yes to 6 or more questions above, you definitely are a no-rules discretionary trader.

Chances are you seldom make money in the market because you are not playing a winning game. You probably make many mistakes. In fact, since you don’t have rules, I would consider everything you do to be a mistake until you have a set of rules in place.  How can you effectively learn from any of your trading experiences if you do not know which ones are mistakes? (more…)

How to Trade Through the Pain

  
  Education
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10 painful aspects of trading and what to do about them.

  1. The pain of losing money. (Trade smaller so it is not as painful, it is just an outcome not an emotion).

  2. The pain of being wrong about a trade you were sure about. (You lost simply because the market didn’t match your trade, trend followers lose money in choppy markets, swing traders lose money in trending markets, it’s the market not you. As long as you followed your own plan.)
  3. The pain of a draw down in capital.
  4. Consecutive trading losses hurt. They make you doubt yourself, your method, and your system. (You need to remember your winning trades, your winning years, or your back-testing, or paper trading of the method. You have to keep the faith or get with a method you have faith in).
  5. The embarrassment of public losses. You told everyone who would listen about a great trade you were taking and you were wrong. Social media has given us all the ability to embarrass ourselves anytime we want. (Never be overconfident in any trade, but always be sure of your stop loss.)
  6. The pain of of admitting you were wrong. (Cut your loss and move on to the next trade, trade reality not your ego.)
  7. Losing paper profits, you are up 20% on a trade then a massive whip saw takes back those profits in one move. (Take your trailing stop and move on to the next trade, there is truly no reason to cry over spilled milk.)
  8. You are following a guru and come to realize he truly is a salesman not a trader. (You stop following gurus and look to learn how to trade for yourself using a method and a trading plan).
  9. You buy a super hot stock that you have researched for many weeks then it goes down due to a bear market. (Only trade stocks long in up-trending markets)

  10. You start trading a system that did amazing in back-testing and promptly lose 10% of your account. (You have to stick with it so it can win in the long term, you may need to make slight adjustments in position sizing or stops to account for volatility that you may have missed.)

Day Trading Starting Out

  
  Education
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1• Don’t Mixing up Apples and Oranges
2• Don’t’ Winning 7 trades and LOSING ALL Gains on the Next 3 trades
3• When PREMISES FAIL, EXIT TRADE
4• 70% Consistency = 7 out of 10 trades
5• Be BORED = APATHY = EMOTIONAL DETACHMENT
6• DON’T WORRY ABOUT MAKING MONEY
7• Pauses in your Trading. Putting oneself into a position where defeat is impossible.
8• Determine Your STYLE
9• Stops based on type of Trade and Premises
10• Expect to make mistakes
12• Volume is KEY
13• Those who can recognize PATTERNS and Keep an OPEN Mind Will Succeed Faster – The ability to ADAPT – The Ability to REACT – The Ability to Admit Defeat Cut Losses Fast

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