Archives of “technical indicators” tag

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4 Pillars of Trading

  
  Education
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4 Pillars

I “see” the market through the lens of four primary metrics: fundamentals, technical, structural and psychology.

When viewed in isolation, each of those approaches has inherent flaws.

1. Fundamentals are best at the top and worst near a low.

2. Technical indicators often trigger buy signals higher, on breakouts, and sell signals lower, after a stock has broken down.

3. Structural factors — debt, derivatives and currency effects — can self-sustain in a cumulative manner until such time they overwhelm the system.

4. Psychology, such social mood and risk appetites, can gain momentum until they snap under the weight of the herd mentality.

Dormeier, Investing with Volume Analysis

  
  Education
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In addition to his “real” job managing money, Buff Pelz Dormeier develops technical indicators. He shares some of the fruits of his—and his noteworthy predecessors’—labor in Investing with Volume Analysis: Identify, Follow, and Profit from Trends (FT Press, 2011).

When I started reading this book I suspected that it would be like so many others: long on generalities and short on actionable ideas. The first hundred pages or so do indeed deal with general relationships between price and volume, and some of the material is familiar. But even the familiar material is often presented in an unusual way. Here’s one example.

Newton’s second law of motion, reinterpreted to apply to financial markets, analyzes “how much volume (force) is required to move a security (the object) a given distance (price change) at a given speed (acceleration/momentum). … Richard Wyckoff referred to this principle as the law of effort versus result, which asserts that the effort must be in proportion to the results.” (p. 47) As a corollary of this law, “if more volume (force) is required to produce less price change (acceleration), then the stock is becoming overly bought or sold.” (p. 85)

In apparent contradiction to Wyckoff’s law of effort is the rule of trend volume, according to which “more volume substantiates a stronger trend.” (p. 85) Can these two principles be reconciled? Dormeier suggests that they can, once we bring the notions of strong hands and weak hands into the equation. His discussion is too detailed to summarize here, but it is premised on how strong hands and weak hands play the game. As he writes, “Strong hands buy out of an expectation of capital appreciation. Weak hands buy out of greed and the fear of missing out on an opportunity. Weak hands sell from the fear of losing capital. Strong hands sell to reinvest in better opportunities (which does not have to be other equities).” (p. 87)

Dormeier really hits his stride when he turns “general volume principles into indicators with numerical values.” (p. 113) These indicators have a dual mandate—to lead price and to confirm price. But they don’t all work the same way; they are “tools, each of which is designed to explain a distinct piece of the volume puzzle.” (p. 117) (more…)

One Liner-Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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If your not sure and don’t have an edge, cash IS a strategy.
If you are on a cold streak, reduce size by 70% and tighten stops for a week.
Stocks aren’t people, they cant be trusted, an algorithm doesn’t care that you think you know the story or the chart.
Don’t be “all in” in any name, you will blow up your account.
It’s totally cool to change your mind right after a trade, the market changes by the minute, so should you.
Pick one strategy and stick to it. This may take time if you are a beginner.
You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet, so take losses but keep them very small.
I haven’t taken someone else s idea in a long time, you have just as good a chance of being right or wrong as some other putz.
Don’t have 15 technical indicators on your screen, that’s and EKG not a chart. Less is more.
Don’t trade pissed off, it will crush your P&L
Guess who wins when you “revenge” trade?
Take partial profits on the way up and raise your stops.
When you have three losing trades in a row, take a walk around the block. You may get an epiphany, at the very least it’s therapeutic.
Realize early that the market will always be smarter than you.

How to know when to exit your position?

  
  Education
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This started as a quirky post but quickly turned into something probably more useful. I admit the post is based on personal experiences. Luckily, I do not make these mistakes any more….at least not very often ;). Enjoy!

1) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself using extra technical indicators on charts to justify holding your position that you didnt use to get into it in the first place!

2) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself going to yahoo message boards to see if someone has some positive news that you don’t know!

3) It is time to sell when…..you find yourself justifying to yourself holding a position for fundamental reasons when you entered it for technical reasons!

4) It is time to sell when…..when you ask an “expert” on twitter or some blog to chart a stock checking for entry when you are already in it!

Let me know if you readers have any other such fun “indicators” and I shall add them

Average True Range (ATR) – A Magical Tool

  
  Education
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Average True Range is an indispensable tool for designers of good trading systems. It is truly a workhorse among technical indicators. Every systems trader should be familiar with ATR and its many useful functions. It has numerous applications including use in setups, entries, stops and profit taking. It is even a valuable aid in money management. The following is a brief explanation of how ATR is calculated and a few simple examples of the many ways that ATR can be used to design profitable trading systems.How to calculate Average True Range (ATR):

  • Range: This is simply the difference between the high point and the low point of any bar.
  • True Range: This is the GREATEST of the following:
    1. The distance from today’s high to today’s low
    2. The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s high, or
    3. The distance from yesterday’s close to today’s low

True range is different from range whenever there is a gap in prices from one bar to the next. Average True Range is simply the true range averaged over a number of bars of data. To make ATR adaptive to recent changes in volatility, use a short average (2 to 10 bars). To make the ATR reflective of “normal” volatility use 20 to 50 bars or more.

Will write more with Examples …Next week !!

Technically Yours

Ciana, New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

  
  Education
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For those of us without a Bloomberg terminal New Frontiers in Technical Analysis: Effective Tools and Strategies for Trading and Investing by Paul Ciana (Bloomberg/Wiley, 2011) is an idea book, not a plug and play manual. But even though some of the software tools described in Ciana’s book are not available on run-of-the-mill trading platforms (and where they are, they are available by subscription only) clever programmers may get inspired. Moreover, even without access to proprietary software the imaginative reader can add some new arrows to his quiver.
The six chapters in this book are written by six different authors: “Evidence of the Most Popular Technical Indicators” (Paul Ciana), “Everything Is Relative Strength Is Everything” (Julius de Kempenaer), “Applying Seasonality and Erlanger Studies” (Philip B. Erlanger), “Kase StatWare and Studies” (Cynthia A. Kase), “Rules-Based Trading and Market Analysis Using Simplified Market Profile” (Andrew Kezeli), and “Advanced Trading Methods” (Rick Knox).
Ciana provides some fascinating data about the preferences of those who use the Bloomberg Professional Service. For instance, Europe opts for log charts 47% of the time and Asia only 9% of the time. Asia prefers candlestick charts, the Americas bar charts. Worldwide the most popular technical indicators (excluding moving averages) are RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands (BOLL), stochastics (STO), directional movement index (DMI), Ichimoku (GOC), and volume at time (VAT). RSI is the clear winner, with a 44.4% worldwide preference; MACD comes in second at 22%. Some indicators have geographical ties. GOC has a 10.8% popularity rating in Asia as opposed to 2.5% in the Americas and 2.8% in Europe. VAT has a 5.3% rating in the Americas and only 1.8% in Europe and 1.6% in Asia. (more…)

Book Review :Sell & Sell Short

  
Analysis, Education
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Sell and Sell Short (Wiley Trading) by Alexander Elder

If you are searching for a book on trading stocks then look no further, this is it. I have been a successful trader for years and read over 160 books on trading,and in my opinion this is one of the very best. Alexander Elder actually read the change in the market from bull to bear in late 2007 and was able to get this books first edition released in early 2008 when it was needed most.

While as the title suggests it teaches when to sell your stocks for profits, and also does the best job I have seen on explaining short selling and when technical indicators show to short. This book is a complete book for any trader. The main lessons of this book is when to lock in profits and exit a trade using a target, and how to double your potential for profits by not only buying stocks, but also selling stocks short and buying them back at a lower price for profit. Professionals sell short because while overall the stock market drifts upward, when a stock falls it falls over
twice as fast as it rises. I sell short and it is a powerful tool when used correctly. This book will show you when it is appropriate to short.

Dr. Alexander Elder is the only author I am aware of that integrates trading psychology, money management, technical analysis and keeping a trading journal into one book. These four factors will determine whether you are successful in the market or not, even more than the trading method you choose.

You will learn the three great divides in trading:

technical vs. fundamental
trend vs. counter trend
discretionary vs systematic
The author follows a discretionary, technical approach trading counter trend for the most part. However what you learn in this book can be applied to any type of trading. The authors own technical approach uses prices, volume, exponential moving averages (13 day, 26 day), envelopes, MACD, and force index. Limit your tools to no more than five, more is less, any more just causes confusion. The main method you will learn in this book is using the moving averages as a technical base for agreed upon value and buying at the lower edge of the envelope and selling at the high edge of the envelope when you have favorable MACD and force index agreement, or buying at value between the EXP MAs.

If you are going to be a trader you must follow the money management suggestions
in this book. NEVER risk more than 2% of your total equity on a trade, and if you lose 6% of your equity in a month you must stop, clear your head and start back next month. If you follow the 2% rule from the book, it will be a major life lesson in your trading and save you a ton in equity draw downs and will almost completely eliminate your risk of ruin. (more…)

Discretionary & Systematic Traders

  
  Education
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Discretionary Traders…

  • …trade information flow.
  • …are trying to anticipate what the market will do.
  • …are subjective; they read their own opinions and past experiences into the current market action.
  • …trade what they want and have rules to govern their trading.
  • …are usually very emotional in their trading and taking their losses personally because their opinion was wrong and their ego is hurt.
  • …use many different indicators to trade at different times. Sometimes it may be macro economic indicators, chart patterns, or even macroeconomic news. Many discretionary traders are trying to game what they believe the majority of other traders will be doing based on market psychology as if it is one big poker game.. They are trying to form an opinion on what the market will do.
  • … generally have a very small watch list of stocks and markets to trade based on their expertise of the markets they trade.

Systematic Traders…

  • …trade price flow.
  • …are participating in what the market is doing.
  • …are objective. They have no opinion about the market and are following what the market is actually doing, i.e. following that trend.
  • …have few but very strict and defined rules to govern their entries and exits, risk management, and position size.
  • …are unemotional because when they lose it is simply that the market was not conducive to their system. They know that they will win over the long term.
  • …always use the exact same technical indicators for their entries and exits. They never change them.
  • …trade many markets and are trading their technical system based on prices and trends so they do not need to be an expert on the fundamentals. (more…)

Gorman & Kennedy, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading-Book Review

  
  Education
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First, what Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy (Bloomberg/Wiley, 2013) is not. It is not an Elliott wave primer. The authors direct the reader who knows nothing about wave patterns to the classic presentation by Frost and Prechter, available free online.

Instead, this visual guide shows how to actually use Elliott waves in trading, both as a stand-alone tool and, more perfunctorily, in combination with technical indicators. It also includes two chapters on incorporating Elliott waves into options trading strategies

Many of the Elliott waves the author illustrate (and naturally the illustrations are abundant) are of the “real world” vs. the “textbook” variety. That is, they are tricky to decipher even in hindsight. This difficulty has led many critics to claim that Elliott wave theory is useless in real time. In fact, the authors admit that “under the Elliott wave model, there is usually more than one valid wave count at any particular time” and that “sometimes these wave counts point in opposite directions.” (p. 195) (more…)

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