- Taking a trade with NO EXIT STRATEGY that is a horror movie. It is dangerous to not have a stop loss when you enter a trade becasue if a trader thinks they bought in at a great price the price starts looking better the lower it goes, and terror of all terrors the trader adds more to the trade! It only takes one mistake letting one trade run into a huge loss and add to it to blow up an account.
- Shorting the strongest stocks in the market during a bull market is scary as they continue to go up.
- Going long a stock in a death spiral due to a business misstep or earnings decline is like riding a roller coast that generally ends up much lower when the trade is finally closed.
- “Going all in” on one trade, with this plan all it takes is one bad trade to blow up your account, those are scary odds.
- When you are losing you go from your trading plan to “plan B” “hoping” maybe even praying for a reversal. When a trade turns you religious and leads you to pray it is definitely time to get out!
- Asking for others opinions instead of following your trading plan or methodology is very scary, time for homework not tips.
- It is terrifying to watch someone fight a trend instead of follow it. The bigger they go against the trend the scarier it gets. They are trying to stand in front of an elephant walking and tell it where it should be going.
Archives of “stocks” tag
rssThe James Bond Method To Stock Trading
So you want to be high flyer? Drive fast cars, attract the hot women, and travel the world? What sounds like the James Bond way of living, isn’t actually too far off that of a successfully wild stock trader?
While this approach might not be the most risk-adverse style of trading , we can all learn a thing or two from James Bond when it comes to making big bucks in the stock market.
Don’t worry about the consequences
While he may get himself into some crazy situations, James Bond never lets fear get in the way of getting the job done. Bond will walk straight into dark hallways and rooms filled of bad guys, confident that he has the upper hand.
Just like Bond, you too can block out potential consequences of stock trading. Don’t let the fear of losing money or a failed trade scare you away. Head into any situation, confident in your trading strategy.
Never get stressed out
For as great as Bond is, no other action hero gets caught into messy situations as much as Bond does. From the initial capture to just seconds before he finds his way out, Bond never loses his cool.
He stays calm under pressure and focuses on what to do next, rather than what might happen.
Just like Bond, you too can learn to keep cool under difficult situations. Understand that you don’t necessarily need to sell at the first sign of red or throw more money at the stock. Simply stay calm, asses the situation, and find your way out.
Don’t stick around too long (more…)
Jim Rogers: Here's The Most Important Thing On What Investors Should Do
I would say one lesson we all need to learn is that after you’ve had a great success, you really should be very worried. Let’s say you sell and say you’ve made 10 times on your money. You should be extremely worried. You should close the curtains, not read, look at the TV, or anything because that’s when you’re full of hubris, arrogance, confidence. You think, “God, this is something easy,” and you’re desperate to jump around to something new. You should do your very best to avoid making another play until you’ve calmed down a lot. Just wait. It’s a very dangerous time for any investor.Likewise, if you take a huge loss and there’s a big panic and things are dumped on your head because you’re overextended or wrong for whatever reason, calm down, don’t say, “I’m never gonna invest in stocks again or commodities or whatever.” That’s the time you really should be willing to invest again if you can gather together some capital money. The investments can be terribly emotional. You have to figure out a way to control your emotions and deal with your emotions if you’re going to survive in these markets.
My advice is that, most of the time, most investors should do nothing. They should look out the window or go to the beach. You should wait until you see money lying in the corner and all you have to do is go over and pick it up. That’s how most investors should invest. The problem is we all think we need to jump around all the time and be jumping in and out and that’s not good. (more…)
Marc Faber : No Rush To Buy Emerging Markets Stocks
Ten Reasons – Trading Long Option Strangles
A long strangle is long one call at a higher strike and long one put at a lower strike in the same expiration and on the same stock. Such a position makes money if the stock price moves up or down well past the strike prices of the strangle. There are higher costs and risks with these strategies, as I discuss below.
Strangles are low risk plays, one side of the options will go up in value when the other side goes down in value the majority of the time.
- If one side becomes worthless it generally means the other side is worth a lot.
- You can make money on strangles even when you do not know which way the market will move.
- It is much less stressful to hold a position with a hedge in place.
- The big risks are transferred from the option buyer to the option seller in this play.
- Strangles lose small with small movements but win big when there is a big move. The are asymmetrical in their construction.
- When one side of the option sellers blow up their account due to an outsized move you will be on the other side of them and be the trader their capital flows to.
- Strangles can be played on any time frame.
- With the strangles the winning side has a growing delta and the losing side has a shrinking delta.
- Strangles can be used to capture trends, volatility, and reversals.
Where is the risk? (more…)
3 Invaluable Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
“A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip, I must sell those same stocks on Smith’s tip.”
“The recognition of our own mistakes should not benefit us any more than the study of our successes. But there is a natural tendency in all men to avoid punishment. When you associate certain mistakes with a licking, you do not hanker for a second dose, and, of course, all stock-market mistakes wound you in two tender spots – your pocketbook and your vanity.”
…“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”
10 Habits of Successful Traders
1. Follow the Rule of Three. The rule of three simply states that a trade will not be made unless you can carefully articulate three reasons for doing so. This eliminates trading from an indicator alone.
2. Keep Losses Small. It is vitally important to keep losses small as most all of large losses began as small ones, and large losses can put an end to your trading career.
3. Adjust Stops. When a trade is working move your stop loss up in order to lock in gains.
4. Keep Commissions Low. There is a cost to trading but there is no reason to overpay brokerage fees. A discount brokerage is just as good as a premium brand name one.
5. Amateurs at the Open, Pros at the Close. The best time to enter trades are after lunch when the professionals are looking to get in at a better price than one provided in the morning.
6. Know the General Market Trend. When trading individual stocks make sure you trade with the general market trend or condition, not against it.
7. Write Down Every Trade. Doing this will allow you to learn what is working and what is not. It will also help you determine what types of trades work best for your personality.
8. Never Average Down a Losing Position. It is a loser’s game when you add to a loser. You add to winning positions because they are winners and are proving themselves to be such.
9. Never Overtrade. Overtrading is a direct result of not following a well thought out plan, deciding it is best to trade off emotion instead. This will do nothing but cause frustration and a loss of money.
10. Give 10 Percent Away. Money works the fastest when it is divided. When we share we prime the economic pump of the universe.
Trading is a game of rules. We either make the decision to abide by them or we break them. We do the latter at our own peril.
On Trading Psychology
The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you you hope that every day will be the last day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope — to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and get out — too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.
14 Symptoms of Stock Trading Addiction
- You know every stock symbol on the top of your head.
- You’re not satisfied until you can make a profitable trade to make up for bad trades.
- You enjoy the challenge of trading over actually making money.
- You are constantly flustered by the ups and downs of a stock in a given day.
- You start to make crazy excuses and blame others for your bad trades.
- You frequent message boards and social networks to try and pump up your stock.
- You are glued to the Twitter stream to see what traders are actively buying and selling.
- First thing you do when you get up and last thing before you go to sleep is check your stocks.
- You find and follow a new stock everyday.
- You start buying based solely on what somebody says.
- You bet large portions of your portfolio on a few stocks.
- You check your account balance every 5 minutes of market hours.
- You scoff at the trading strategies of other people.
- You never really actually get better at trading.
Richard Rhodes’ 18 Trading Rules
“Old Rules…but Very Good Rules”
- The first and most important rule is – in bull markets, one is supposed to be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too fast. I have before, and I suspect I’ll do it again at some point in the future. Thus, we’ve not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a position.
- Buy that which is showing strength – sell that which is showing weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to “buy low, sell high”, but to “buy higher and sell higher”. Furthermore, when comparing various stocks within a group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest.
- When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don’t enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.
- On minor corrections against the major trend, add to trades. In bull markets, add to the trade on minor corrections back into support levels. In bear markets, add on corrections into resistance. Use the 33-50% corrections level of the previous movement or the proper moving average as a first point in which to add.
- Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on.
- Be patient. Once a trade is put on, allow it time to develop and give it time to create the profits you expected.
- Be patient. The old adage that “you never go broke taking a profit” is maybe the most worthless piece of advice ever given. Taking small profits is the surest way to ultimate loss I can think of, for small profits are never allowed to develop into enormous profits. The real money in trading is made from the one, two or three large trades that develop each year. You must develop the ability to patiently stay with winning trades to allow them to develop into that sort of trade.
- Be patient. Once a trade is put on, give it time to work; give it time to insulate itself from random noise; give it time for others to see the merit of what you saw earlier than they.
- Be impatient. As always, small loses and quick losses are the best losses. It is not the loss of money that is important. Rather, it is the mental capital that is used up when you sit with a losing trade that is important.
- Never, ever under any condition, add to a losing trade, or “average” into a position. If you are buying, then each new buy price must be higher than the previous buy price. If you are selling, then each new selling price must be lower. This rule is to be adhered to without question.
- Do more of what is working for you, and less of what’s not. Each day, look at the various positions you are holding, and try to add to the trade that has the most profit while subtracting from that trade that is either unprofitable or is showing the smallest profit. This is the basis of the old adage, “let your profits run.”
- Don’t trade until the technicals and the fundamentals both agree. This rule makes pure technicians cringe. I don’t care! I will not trade until I am sure that the simple technical rules I follow, and my fundamental analysis, are running in tandem. Then I can act with authority, and with certainty, and patiently sit tight.
- When sharp losses in equity are experienced, take time off. Close all trades and stop trading for several days. The mind can play games with itself following sharp, quick losses. The urge “to get the money back” is extreme, and should not be given in to.
- When trading well, trade somewhat larger. We all experience those incredible periods of time when all of our trades are profitable. When that happens, trade aggressively and trade larger. We must make our proverbial “hay” when the sun does shine.
- When adding to a trade, add only 1/4 to 1/2 as much as currently held. That is, if you are holding 400 shares of a stock, at the next point at which to add, add no more than 100 or 200 shares. That moves the average price of your holdings less than half of the distance moved, thus allowing you to sit through 50% corrections without touching your average price.
- Think like a guerrilla warrior. We wish to fight on the side of the market that is winning, not wasting our time and capital on futile efforts to gain fame by buying the lows or selling the highs of some market movement. Our duty is to earn profits by fighting alongside the winning forces. If neither side is winning, then we don’t need to fight at all.
- Markets form their tops in violence; markets form their lows in quiet conditions.
- The final 10% of the time of a bull run will usually encompass 50% or more of the price movement. Thus, the first 50% of the price movement will take 90% of the time and will require the most backing and filling and will be far more difficult to trade than the last 50%.
There is no “genius” in these rules. They are common sense and nothing else, but as Voltaire said, “Common sense is uncommon.” Trading is a common-sense business. When we trade contrary to common sense, we will lose. Perhaps not always, but enormously and eventually. Trade simply. Avoid complex methodologies concerning obscure technical systems and trade according to the major trends only.