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Trading Opportunities Through Analyzing Baseball

If you got Pennington to find any valuable info when you asked him to develop quantitative analogies between forest life cycles and those of corporations to find some profitable trades you could certainly do the same in finding some numerical formula that could identify trade opportunities by analyzing baseball.

Each team– a stock, the aggregate teams– the market, each player– a corporate division, each salary– an investment made in the division and the company, each relevant performance statistic– a relevant performance statistic. Identify the right decision mix that makes teams perform better over time and improve over time and analyze similarities in companies doing the same.

The greatest liability is  also the greatest asset– human decision and performance permeate the game of baseball from start to finish and one could question whether it’s possible to find a truly consistent system as a result. I would argue that this complexity makes it a perfect analogy to market/company performance. It moves based on imbedded and sometimes unexplainable intellect and experience of its participants. The chaotic human decision making process is pervasive in both.

Why do 90% get washed out?

They say that 90% or more of new traders get washed out of the market in six months – why would that be? I just had an insight into my own current state and the implications of it long term if it were left as an unconscious process…

The fact is that learning to trade is hard; very hard – but on top of that, it is a zero feedback learning curve. You don’t get marked or a pat on the back for your efforts; the only feedback you get is:

You lose…
You lose…
You lose…

You think you are building up knowledge and skill in your conscious mind, but unbeknownst to you, in the dark invisible depths of your subconscious, you are slowly training yourself to HATE TRADING…

It is like constantly sticking your hand in the fire and going “Ouch! Ouch! Ouch!”

Your interest and passion for it is being quietly eroded. There eventually comes a day where you would rather do something else than trade that day; your instincts are telling you to avoid the pain.

It eventually becomes a DRAG

Attracted by more pleasurable pursuits you realize one day that you haven’t traded for a week or two, but the very thought of it gives you a pain in the solar plexus… You brush the whole thing aside as an old hobby that was a large expensive waste of time.

You’ve been washed out. You are a statistic, but by now you couldn’t care less!

Sex appeal and Trading

sexappeal-tradingTrading is marketed as sexy profession. If you are good at trading, well you must be incredibly smart, good looking, funny, and of course, rich! We all know this furthest from truth. Traders are pale, unkept and have bad posture. I kid.
One of the biggest aspects of of trading is psychology, the manipulation and control of our biggest sex organ of all, our brain. However, an often overlooked aspect of trading psychology is mental framing – how we position our thoughts and ideas about the market. (more…)

William Eckhardt-Quotes

I take the point of view that missing an important trade is a much more serious error than making a bad trade. 

Buying on retracement is psychologically seductive because you feel you’re getting a bargain versus the price you saw a while ago. However, I feel that approach contains more than a drop of poison. 
You shouldn’t plan to risk more than 2 percent on a trade. Although, of course, you could still lose more if the market gaps beyond your intended point of exit. 
I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important. 
The answer to the question of whether trading can be taught has to be an unqualified yes. Anyone with average intelligence can learn to trade. This is not rocket science. 
If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.  (more…)

Sex Appeal and Trading

CherrylipsTrading is marketed as sexy profession. If you are good at trading, well you must be incredibly smart, good looking, funny, and of course, rich! We all know this furthest from truth. Traders are pale, unkept and have bad posture. I kid.

One of the biggest aspects of of trading is psychology, the manipulation and control of our biggest sex organ of all, our brain. However, an often overlooked aspect of trading psychology is mental framing – how we position our thoughts and ideas about the market.

Newer traders approach trading from a “right versus wrong” perspective. They devise their trading system based on a false sense of security believing certain setups and strategies can be designed to give them”right” signals and helps them avoid “wrong” signals. (more…)

William Eckhardt Quotes

Partner of perhaps the best-known futures speculator of our time, Richard Dennis.Created the famous trading group known as the Turtles. William has averaged over 62 percent return.  

“I take the point of view that missing an important trade is a much more serious error than making a bad trade”. 
”Buying on retracement is psychologically seductive because you feel you’re getting a bargain versus the price you saw a while ago. However, I feel that approach contains more than a drop of poison.”
”You shouldn’t plan to risk more than 2 percent on a trade. Although, of course, you could still lose more if the market gaps beyond your intended point of exit.”
”I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important.”
”The answer to the question of whether trading can be taught has to be an unqualified yes. Anyone with average intelligence can learn to trade. This is not rocket science.”
”If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.”
”Watch idly while profit-taking opportunities arise, but in adversity run like a jackrabbit.”
”One adage that is completely wrongheaded is that you can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits.”
”What feels good is often the wrong thing to do.”
”Human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance.”
”Two of the cardinal sins of trading – giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely – are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance.”
”Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there.”
”It is a common notion that after you have profits from your original equity, you can start taking even greater risks because now you are playing with ‘their money’. We are sure you have heard this. Once you have profit, you’re playing with ‘their money’. It’s a comforting thought. It certainly can’t be as bad to lose ‘their money’ as ‘yours’? Right? Wrong. Why should it matter whom the money used to belong to? What matters is who it belongs to now and what to do about it. And in this case it all belongs to you.”  

Master Talk Presents…William Eckhardt!

“One adage that is completely wrongheaded is that you can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. What feels good is often the wrong thing to do. Human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. Two of the cardinal sins of trading – giving losses too much rope and taking profits prematurely – are both attempts to make current positions more likely to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance. Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that.
Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there. It is a common notion that after you have profits from your original equity, you can start taking even greater risks because now you are playing with “their money”. We are sure you have heard this.
Once you have profit, you’re playing with “their money”. It’s a comforting thought. It certainly can’t be as bad to lose “their money” as “yours”? Right? Wrong. Why should it matter whom the money used to belong to? What matters is who it belongs to now and what to do about it. And in this case it all belongs to you.”

Trading Slogans

Statistic makes the money.
I just control the risk.
————————————
I control my risk.
The market controls my win.
I just go with the market.
——————————
THINK – Control your risk !!!
—————————–
MAKE MONEY
1. Setups
2. Statistic
3. Risk managment
4. Disciplin
5. Setup Training
6. Learn Rulebook, every day
WORK HARD !!! DAY for DAY !!!
———————————-
LAZY TRADERS LOSE !!!
THEY JUST LOSE !!!
I HATE LAZY PEOPLE !!!
I AM A WORKAHOLIC AND I LOVE IT !!!
BECAUSE ITS ME WHO MAKES MILLIONS, EASY !!!
———————————-
SETUP TRAINING,
makes my money !!!
Do it every day !!!
——————————— (more…)

The Win/Loss Ratio

42-21056354“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: You can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance. … (more…)

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