If you got Pennington to find any valuable info when you asked him to develop quantitative analogies between forest life cycles and those of corporations to find some profitable trades you could certainly do the same in finding some numerical formula that could identify trade opportunities by analyzing baseball.
Each team– a stock, the aggregate teams– the market, each player– a corporate division, each salary– an investment made in the division and the company, each relevant performance statistic– a relevant performance statistic. Identify the right decision mix that makes teams perform better over time and improve over time and analyze similarities in companies doing the same.
The greatest liability is also the greatest asset– human decision and performance permeate the game of baseball from start to finish and one could question whether it’s possible to find a truly consistent system as a result. I would argue that this complexity makes it a perfect analogy to market/company performance. It moves based on imbedded and sometimes unexplainable intellect and experience of its participants. The chaotic human decision making process is pervasive in both.
The MASTER TRADER…
…is rational. He does not trade for egotistical reasons.
…is skilled in self-mastery thus able to deal with market reality.
…is able to see through the noise in the markets and find low-risk, high reward trade opportunities.
…is hard working and has the discipline to follow through with well thought out plans.
…is committed to his methodology and able to cut losses when called upon to do so.
…is humbled by his need to rely on the support of others.
…is adaptable to market changes.
…is up to the challenge of the trading game. Enjoys profits and endures losses.
…is able to handle both success and failure without self-destructing.
A problem that plagues all traders from time-to-time, trade reluctance, or the inability to pull the trigger has many causes. Recognizing yourself among the following Trade Reluctance Types can go a long way toward eliminating the problem.
ALARMIST: Characterized by energy being diverted away from placing trades into over-vigilant preparation for low probability catastrophes. Habitual worrying about the worst case scenario.
ANALYSIS PARALYSIS: Characterized by energy being over-invested in analyzing at the expense of executing trades. Preparation for making trades is out of control. Trader is a walking encyclopedia of technical information with little or no profits to show for it.
HYPER-PRO: Characterized by energy being lost due to over-investment in the mannerisms and appearances of success. Energy is expended at the expense of goal-supporting behaviors such as analyzing trade performance or analysis for the next trading session, which is viewed as “demeaning” and “unprofessional,” and/or “shouldn’t be necessary.” Often accompanied by over-stylized use of professional jargon, name-dropping, and a reflexive need to appear better informed and more sophisticated than the “average” trader. (more…)