Archives of “risk” tag

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R.W. Schabacker, the financial editor of Forbes magazine, penned the following advice (warning) in 1934

  
  Education
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No trader can ever expect to be correct in every one of his market transactions. No individual, however well he may be grounded, no matter how much experience he has had in practical market operation, can expect to be infallible. There will always be mistakes, some unwise judgments, some erroneous moves, some losses. The extent to which such losses materialize, to which they are allowed to become serious, will almost invariably determine whether the individual is to be successful in his long-range investing activities or whether such accumulated losses are finally to wreck him on the shoals of mental despair and financial tragedy.

THE TRUE TEST

It is easy enough to manage those commitments which progress smoothly and successfully to one’s anticipated goal. The true test of market success comes when the future movement is not in line with anticipated developments, when the trader is just plain wrong in his calculations, and when his investment begins to show a loss instead of a profit. If such situations are not properly handled, if one or two losing positions are allowed to get out of control, then they can wipe out a score of successful profits and leave the individual with a huge loss on balance. It is just as important-nay, even more important-to know when to dessert a bad bargain, take one’s loss and count it a day, as it is to know when to close out a successful transaction which has brought profit.

LIMITS ARE A MUST

The staggering catastrophes which ruin investors, mentally, morally, and financially, are not contingent upon the difference between a 5 percent loss limit and a 20 percent loss limit. They stem from not having established any limit at all on the possible loss. Any experienced market operator can tell you that his greatest losses have been taken by those, probably rare, instances when he substituted stubbornness for loss limitation, when he bought more of a stock which was going down, instead of selling some of it to lighten his risk, when he allowed pride of personal opinion to replace conservative faith in the cold judgment of the market place. (more…)

Six Rules of Michael Steinhardt

  
  Education
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Michael Steinhardt was one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time. A dollar invested with Steinhardt Partners LP in 1967 was worth $481 when Steinhardt retired in 1995.

The following six rules were pulled out from a speech he gave:

1. Make all your mistakes early in life: The more tough lessons you learn early on, the fewer (bigger) errors you make later. A common mistake of all young investors is to be too trusting with brokers, analysts, and newsletters who are trying to sell you something.

2. Always make your living doing something you enjoy: Devote your full intensity for success over the long-term.

3. Be intellectually competitive: Do constant research on subjects that make you money. Plow through the data so as to be able to sense a major change coming in the macro situation.

4. Make good decisions even with incomplete information: Investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. Investing is all about decision-making with imperfect information. You will never have all the info you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation. (more…)

Improving Trading -4 Points

  
  Education
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  • Eliminate the potential that the market will disappoint you, think probabilities before executing a trade.
  • Don’t look at a trade outcome as being right or wrong, but again in terms of probabilities
  • When a pattern you know presents itself, trade it, don’t think, just respect your stops.
  • When analyzing your trade, how much are you willing to put at risk to see if other market participants will come alongside your view. In other words, look first at the loss potential instead of focusing on gains.

 


Succeeding At Trading By Not Trading

  
  Education
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One important performance variable that isn’t tracked often is the variability in a trader’s risk-taking. Opportunities are not distributed perfectly evenly over time: some markets offer more opportunity, some less. As a result, the skilled trader will vary risk-taking as a function of the opportunity set: sometimes trading actively and in size, other times pulling back from trading. What traders refer to as “overtrading” is the result of an inability to regulate decision-making by opportunity set: taking risk when rewards are quite uncertain.

“When are you mostly out of markets?” is a question I like to ask. The ability to not trade is itself a performance edge when it helps traders hang onto their gains during times of market uncertainty. This is yet another area where having a full and rich personal life becomes important to trading success. If all you have to sustain you psychologically is your trading, it is going to be difficult to not trade. If you have a full and rich life outside of trading, then it is much easier to take risk when rewards justify the effort—and put trading aside otherwise.

It’s great to have a passion for trading; better to have a passion for successful trading. And sometimes that means engaging in other passions and refraining from marginal trades.

Conscientiousness and Trading

  
  Education
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  • Self-Efficacy. Self-Efficacy describes confidence in one’s ability to accomplish things. High scorers believe they have the intelligence (common sense), drive, and self-control necessary for achieving success in trading. Low scorers do not feel effective, and may have a sense that they are not in control of their trading. However, consideration needs to be given to motivation for success as complacency with the way things are may be the reason for a low score.
  • Orderliness. Traders with high scores on orderliness are well-organized and stick to routines and schedules. They tend to make trading plans and use them. Low scorers tend to be disorganized and scattered. Trading plans are viewed as not being important as rules are too confining.
  • Dutifulness. This scale reflects the strength of a person’s ability to stick to a trading plan. Those who score high on this scale have a strong sense of moral obligation. Low scorers find trading plans overly confining and thus less likely to follow or even create one. Perhaps trading is seen as more of a “hobby” or just for “fun.”
  • Achievement-Striving. Individuals who score high on this scale strive hard to achieve excellence. Their drive to be recognized as successful keeps them on track toward their goals. Low scorers are content to get by with a minimal amount of work, and might be seen by others as lazy.
  • Self-Discipline. One of the largest contributors to success as a trader is self-discipline. High scorers are able to strictly adhere to a trading plan and stay on track despite distractions. Low scorers procrastinate, are easily discouraged and show poor follow-through. The lack of self-discipline will make your trading career rather short lived.
  • Cautiousness. Cautiousness describes the disposition to think through possibilities before acting. High scorers on the Cautiousness scale take their time when making trading decisions and manage risk well. Low scorers often trade without deliberating alternatives and the probable consequences of those alternatives. Scoring too high on this scale can have its downside as trading opportunities may be missed for the discretionary trader. The more mechanical systems trader will account for this through their strategy.

Greek crisis clouds EU summit

  
  Education
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crisisThe fiscal emergency in Greece and the turbulence in debt markets are threatening to overshadow this week’s EU summit on business competitiveness. The problem poses a leadership test for Herman Van Rompuy, the EU’s first permanent president, who called the meeting. Greece’s debt crisis, and the risk of eurozone contagion,  are not on the summit’s official agenda, but leaders fear the impact on financial markets if the summit does not address the worst crisis to strike European monetary union since its launch in 1999.

Jack Schwager’s “Hedge Fund Market Wizards” in Two Paragraphs

  
  Education
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READANDLEARNNearly every professional Trader will agree that Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” series is required reading. And his latest in the series, Hedge Fund Market Wizards, continues the same tradition of excellence. I’ve nearly finished my first read-through. If you are time constrained (and who isn’t) and/or you haven’t yet picked up the book, I may be able to save you some time by offering this brief mock introduction to each Trader that nearly describes every interview in the book:

Over the past 10-15 years, Trader X has achieved an [insert mid-teens to mid-twenties]average annual return. While this return may not sound that impressive, consider that Trader X has never had a drawdown larger than [insert impressive sounding single-digit number]percent! However, Trader X’s Sharpe Ratio is extremely high. How could this be? Well, a shortcoming of the Sharpe Ratio is that it makes no distinction between upside and downside volatility and therefore understates the Trader’s true performance because volatility has been heavily skewed to the upside (which, presumably, most investors wouldn’t have a problem with).

How has Trader X achieved such an impressive Return/Risk track record? He lazer beams extreme focus to risk controls and never risks more than [insert some minuscule number]percent of his total portfolio on any individual trade.  Combining these risk controls with his attention to seeking out asymmetric trading opportunities that have the potential to yield trading gains far in excess of the maximum risked to enter the trade is what separates Trader X from his pedestrian competitors.

There ya go, you’ve basically read all 15 chapters of Hedge Fund Wizards.

Now what do you think you need to focus on?

Happy Diwali

  
Analysis, Education
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Happy Diwali & Happy New Year Dear Subscribers & Our Readers, We wish U great Diwali & Great Coming New Year.

  1. Quit letting trades go through your original stop loss, you were wrong, get out. When you start hoping and stop managing your stops you are losing money.
  2. Quit over trading, only take the very best entries and trade the very best stocks in your system.
  3. Quit making up stories about why you decided to hold your position instead of taking your stop when it was hit. trade your plan.
  4. Stop trading your opinions and start trading what the price action is saying.
  5. Stop following people in social media that cause you to trade badly and lose money.
  6. Stop looking at BLUE Channels  for trading and investing advice.
  7. Stop trading so big that you emotions are more involved in your trades than your mind.
  8. Disconnect your ego from your trading. You determine your risk size and entry the market chooses whether you win or lose.
  9. Quit riding an emotional roller coaster, your emotions should stay level when winning and losing. If not trade smaller.
  10. Quit buying falling knives and shorting rocket stocks, wait for confirmation and reversal before entering.
    Technically Your’s

    AnirudhSethiReport-Team/Baroda/India

Trading Mantra

  
  Education
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There are some things we can control as traders and some things that we can not. We need to learn the difference to limit our frustration and win in this game.

We can control:
How much we risk per trade.
How big a position size we take.
What time frame we trade.
What market we trade.
Our style of trading.
Whether we stick with our trading plan or go off of it.
If we honor our stop losses and trailing stops.
How we react to a winning or losing trade.

 

 
We can not control:
Whip saws when the trend reverses on us.
Gaps in opening prices both up and down.
Headline risk.
Natural disasters.
Whether a trend continues or reverses the moment we open a position.
Whether any individual trade wins or loses.
How many winning or losing trades we have in a row.
 

 

The battle for your long term trading success is won or loss in your head. The decision to whether keep going after losing money or to quit is made at the point of maximum frustration with the markets. To keep going you have to keep positive, and keep trading. Knowing the difference between you making a mistake or the market simple not matching your style will go a long way in keeping down your stress and negative self talk. 

What banks will be burned by Greece ?

  
Analysis, Education, Global Indices
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Greeceflag“At end-Q3 foreigners held EUR216bn of Greek government debt (72.3% of the total market, 90.2% of GDP), having doubled their position since end-04. Given recent downgrades and another round of revisions to budget data from previous years, a sharp slowdown or even reversal of inflows from foreigners into the local debt market has become an increasing risk.”

Read the full story on FT Alphaville’s blog, by Tracy Alloway

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