
Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading

Some love risk. Others avoid it till the grave. Whether you take it head on or run in the other direction it will always catch you. Risk cannot be avoided so you better know how to put the odds in your favor. Consider the following:
You want to see life as a continuum running on a loop back and forth from risk to reward. If you want a big reward, take a big risk. If you want an average reward and an average life, take an average risk. Easier said than done, however, if you want the big reward. Our system is notorious for playing Whac-A-Mole with achievers.
From an early age, people are conditioned by families, schools, and virtually every other shaping force in society to avoid risk. To take risks is inadvisable; to play it safe is the message. Risk can only be bad. However, winners understand risk is highly productive, and not something to avoid. Taking calculated risks is different from acting rashly. Playing it safe is the true danger. Far more often than you might realize, the real risk in life turns out to be the refusal to take a risk.2 If life is a game of risk, then to one degree or another, being comfortable with assessing odds is the only option for a fulfilling life.
Consider trading from a “startup” business perspective. Every business is ultimately involved in assessing risk. Putting capital to work to make it grow is the goal. In that sense, all business is the same. The right decisions lead to success, and wrong ones lead to insolvency. Blunt, but true. There are ways to go in the right direction, however. Ask yourself these questions:
- What is the market opportunity in the market niche?
- What is your solution to the market need?
- How big is the opportunity?
- How do you make money?
- How do you reach the market and sell?
- What is the competition?
- How are you better?
- How will you execute and manage your business?
- What are your risks?
- Why will you succeed? (more…)
While trading is a game of math, probabilities, charts, and earnings it is also a mind game. Many times a trader’s beliefs will determine their success more than anything else. All traders start out believing it is possible to make money in the markets. Many want to earn their living one day by trading. However it is perseverance, beliefs, and mental determination that will determine who wins and who just quits. Shockingly the majority of millionaire traders lost most of their accounts when they started or they experienced huge draw downs while learning lessons the hard way.
Trade Management
Other thoughts
Conclusion:Isolate yourself from the opinions of other people. Make trading decisions your own. Focus on proper execution. Have the courage to do the right thing because it is right.
Accepting risk may cause losses, but accepting unfunded liabilities and negative skew can bankrupt us. Use models not to predict, but to create a range of possible outcomes for which we can plan. Markets follow cycles based on the perceptions and actions of its players, and one can gain alpha by using these cycles to manage risk and reward. Markets SEEK efficiency, but offer tremendous opportunities while traveling from inefficiency to efficiency. Both people and machines have flaws, so use the best attributes of each for peak performance. Forecasting is necessary but should be timid in nature, while action is not always necessary but should be BOLD on the occasions when conditions dictate it. Risk management is made more complete by searching for information that differs from your analysis rather than by that which confirms it. Successful practitioners turn mistakes into assets by generating learning experiences and continuous improvement. Remember to distinguish between clues that are necessary, vs. a complete picture revealing a group of necessary AND sufficient measures. Markets can be generally explained 95% of the time, but extreme events happen much more than a bell curve would indicate…using options guarantees that we’ll survive fat tails and grab positive skew. We are certain we DON’T know what will happen, so the best approach is to figure out what WON’T happen and blueprint accordingly. Diversification reduces risk most of the time, but we assume all assets are linked and eventually correlate. It is critical to have both a brain and a gut; the ability to find an edge, and the fortitude to trade it aggressively. Profitable opportunities are best entered in the earliest stage of latent power being converted to energy. Too soon is a waste of capital, too late involves too much risk. Virtually all long-term strategies are positioned to simply ride the tailwinds of rising prices. It is imperative to have methods to protect us from both headwinds and crosswinds to avert disaster. Treat volatility as a psychological risk to be managed into an ally, not as a financial measure of risk to obsess over. |
Becoming a millionaire, even a multimillionaire is not all that extraordinary, becoming a billionaire is. What do self-made billionaires (and there are about 800 of them in the world) have that the rest of us don’t? John Sviokla and Mitch Cohen tackle this question in The Self-Made Billionaire Effect: How Extreme Producers Create Massive Value (Portfolio / Penguin, 2014).
These billionaires (or Producers, as the authors call them) may be wired differently. They certainly think differently. They balance judgment and imaginative vision, a daunting mental task since “for most people, judgment and imagination sit on opposite ends of a mental spectrum. The more skilled one is at seeing things as they are (judgment) the harder it is to see things as they might be (imagination).“ (p. 4) Not only do they “revel in bringing clashing elements together,” “they seamlessly hold on to multiple ideas, multiple perspectives, and multiple scales.” (pp. 16, 15)
Since they “cannot predict the exact time to make an investment, … they are willing to operate simultaneously at multiple speeds and time frames. They accept that timing is not under their control, and so they work fast, slow, super slow, or in all these modes at the same time. They urgently prepare to seize an opportunity but patiently wait for that opportunity to fully emerge.” (p. 19)
What were the greatest trades of all time? Who made them? Here is a list of the who, what, when, where, and how of the greatest trades that were ever made.
While the risk management while executing many of these trades is not what many traders would want, we can see many of these as trend trades and the dangers of fighting the trends. These trades were not all entered into at one time, most of them were built slowly and grew by adding as profits accrued. Most were also watched closely with and eye on the exit button when a true reversal began. Livermore made many probing shorts that he had to stop out as the bull market reversed off support and continued upwards after appearing to roll over. Some of these traders had the sell button ready to push at a seconds notice in case a reversal knocked them out. Some could have been ruined with a little blind sided government intervention that modern day traders are faced with now. But you can not argue with the profits and many of these traders have very long proven records, these were not random trades and they did not just get lucky, most of these were the great play that they landed after decades of research, study, and a life time of great trading.
1. John Paulson’s bet against sub-prime mortgages made his hedge fund a cool $15 billion in 2007, that is billion with a ‘B’. he is only one of a very exclusive club that was able to make this call and win with it. That was a call of a lifetime that everyone was blind to even deep into the crises.
2. Jesse Livermore’s call on the Crash of 1929, Jesse Livermore did not need any computer models, technical indicators, or derivatives to make $100 million dollars ($1.2 billion in today’s dollars) for his own personal account during a time when everyone was bullish and then almost everyone lost their shirts. It was an amazing day when Jesse came home and his wife thought they were ruined and instead he had the second best trading day of anyone in history.
3. John Templeton invested heavily into Japan during the 1960s, when Japan was beginning its three-decade long economic miracle, Templeton was one of the country’s first outside investors. At one point, he boldly put more than 60 percent of his fund in Japanese assets. (more…)