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Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan report

  
  Analysis
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The BOJ’s Tanki Keizai Kansoku Chousa (Tankan) reports on the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan

Full report can be found from the Bank of Japan website here.
Headlines via Reuters:

 

  •  September big manufacturers index +18(Reuters poll: 13)
  • December big manufacturers index seen at +14(Reuters poll: 15)
  • September big non-manufacturers index +2(Reuters poll: 0)
  • December big non-manufacturers index seen at +3(Reuters poll: 5)
  • September small manufacturers index -3(Reuters poll: -9)
  • December small manufacturers index seen at -4(Reuters poll: -6)
  • September small non-manufacturers index -10(Reuters poll: -11)
  • December small non-manufacturers index seen at -13(Reuters poll: -9)
  • Japan all firms see dollar averaging 107.64 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan all firms see euro averaging 126.50 yen for fy2021/22
  • Japan big manufacturers see dollar averaging 106.72 yen for fy2021/22
  • September all firms employment index -17
  • September all firms financial condition index +11 vs june +11
  • September big manufacturers’ production capacity index +1 vs june +1
  • Japan big manufacturers see fy2021/22 recurring profits +12.7%
  • Japan big firms see fy2021/22 capex +10.1% (Reuters poll: 9.1%)
  • Japan small firms see fy2021/22 capex +4.7% (Reuters poll: 1.6%)
  • BOJ September tankan corporate price expectations survey: Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise 0.7% a year from now vs +0.6% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1% 3 years from now vs +0.9% in prev survey
  • Japan firms expect consumer prices to rise an annual 1.1% 5 years from now vs +1.1% in prev survey

Brazil’s central bank 1% rate hike, as expected

  
  Analysis
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Banco Central do Brasil​ hikes its benchmark interest rate to 6.25% from 5.25%.

Headlines via Reuters from the statement (bolding mine):

 

  • decision was unanimous
  • sees rate hike of the same magnitude at next meeting
  • in the current phase of rate hike cycle, this pace of adjustments is best to guarantee the anchoring of inflation expectations
  • sees robust economic recovery in the second half of year
  • baseline scenario and balance of risks indicate that an interest rate hike cycle should advance into contractionary territory
  • elevated fiscal risk creates an upward asymmetry in the balance of inflation risks
  •  the current pace of rate hikes will allow the committee to obtain more information regarding the state of the economy and the persistence of shocks
  • price increases for industrial goods have not subsided and should remain a pressure in the short run.
  •  new round of market discussion regarding inflationary risks in advanced economies could result in a challenging environment for emerging economies

Poll results – Rally in global stocks nearly over, further gains will be limited, correction likely by year-end

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

In very brief summary:
  • The spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pending plans to taper its asset purchases are likely to leave equity markets exposed to turbulence over the coming months.
  • positive earnings season catalyst now behind us
  • 66 of 107 analysts said a correction in global equity markets by end-year was likely. The remaining 41 said unlikely.
Reuters have published a long piece, with a few anecdotal remarks that you might find of further interest, here is the link for plenty more.
Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

Iran resumed fuel exports to Afghanistan last week

  
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Via Reuters comes the report that the Taliban requested Iranian oil

 

  • “The Taliban sent messages to Iran saying ‘you can continue the exports of petroleum products’,” Hamid Hosseini, board member and spokesperson of Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, in Tehran, told Reuters.
  • Iran lifted a ban on fuel exports to Afghanistan, which had been in place since Aug. 6 because of Iran’s concerns about the safety of trading in the country.
  • Those concerns have been eased by the Taliban’s attitude, Hosseini said.

 

Via Reuters comes the report that the Taliban requested Iranian oil Via Reuters comes the report that the Taliban requested Iranian oil 

BOJ March monetary policy meeting minutes – full text

  
  Analysis
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Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Headlines via Reuters:

 

  • members agreed YCC exerting intended policy effect
  • some members said review confirmed some fluctuations in bond yields won’t diminish impact of monetary easing
  • some members said must scrutinise financial system developments due to accumulating side-effects of easing on banking system
  • members agreed BOJ must respond flexibly, effectively without hesitation to changes in economic, price and financial developments
  • a few members said appropriate to stress anew that excessive falls in super-long bond yields could hurt economy in long run

 

 

The full text is here if you wish

 

Bank of Japan Minutes not shedding too much further light on policy deliberations

Coronavirus – US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk that India could be a drag on the global economy

  
Analysis, COVID-19
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A US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk of a slowdown in India’s economy as a result of the Covid-19 jump, which could be a drag on the global economy.

Headlines via Reuters (perhaps today’s Captain Obvious award?)
  • “We expect that this could get worse before it gets better”
  • a “real risk” the Indian economy would falter given the circumstances
  • “There’s a big concern about the draft on the economy by a devastating, spreading virus in India.”

Moody’s on UK banks outlook

  
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Via reuters

Via reuters
  • UK large domestic bank’s assets quality will take hit from COVID-19
  • UK’s bank capital to remain strong
  • UK domestic banks profitability to recover from 2021
  • Capiltilization will remain robust
  • Negative impact of COVID-19 will impact creditworthiness in line with duration and extent of crisis
  • Capital levels will remain stable over the 2020-2022 period broadly in line with end of 2019 levels.

France’s health ministry says the “exponential” rise in new coronavirus cases is “very worrying”

  
  Analysis
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Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

The health ministry says:

  • “In mainland France, the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic is exponential. The strong growth dynamics of transmission is very worrying,” 
Via Reuters
On Friday compulsory mask-wearing was introduced to Paris. Efforts are being made to avoid another harsh economic lockdown.
Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

South Africa’s Gold Fields profit jumps on rising Bullion prices

  
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Via Reuters

Via Reuters
  • Gold fields interim profit up by 300%
  • Higher interim dividend revealed equal to total dividends declared last year
  • Higher gold prices boost future dividend potential
  • Lowers 2020 output guidance

Expect this kind of pciture to be repeated across gold miners as long as bullion prices remain supported.

Amazon’s Bezos sold $1.9 billion of his shares …. yours!

  
  Analysis
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Reuters with the report on stock sales by Amazon head and founder Jeff Bezos.

  • During the first two working days of August, Bezos sold over 600,000 shares
  • part of a previously announced trading plan
Bezos now only has 54.9 million shares left (roughly $176 billion). I know you’ll join me in sending thoughts and prayers. 😀
Reuters with the report on stock sales by Amazon head and founder Jeff Bezos.
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