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Fauci says its likely there will be tens of million of vaccine doses by the end of this year

US infectious diseases expert Fauci speaking in an interview with Reuters

Expects a safe and effective vaccine will have received approval by the end of 2020
  • says there is a middle ground where the country can prudently open amid the coronavirus
  • says some sections of the country have done well but other parts are on fire
  • says he does expect a safe and effective vaccine to receive approval by year end
  • says manufacturers say a billion doses of vaccine will be available by the end of 2021
  • we will likely have tens of millions of doses of vaccine by the end of this year
  • he would be satisfied by a trial that included thousands of people and showed no signs of unexpected severe adverse events
  • he has not seen any indication of pressure from white house on vaccine
  •  says regulatory authorities have promised that safety and efficacy of vaccine will be paramount concern

US infectious diseases expert Fauci speaking in an interview with Reuters 

UN on reports that North Korea have developed nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles

Reuters siting a confidential UN sanctions monitor report they have sighted

  • North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons program
  • Report says several countries assess North Korea has ‘probably developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into the warheads of its ballistic missiles’

News on escalations re NK are yen positive although the market has become a little complacent on such reports. Yen is not moving much on this report.

Global recovery unlikely to be v-shaped, says Shell chief

The head of Shell spoke in an online interview, in a nutshell said that there will be no V-shaped recovery for the global economy after the coronavirus epidemic

  • this will  curtail oil and gas demand for years to come
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive of Royal Dutch Shell:
  • “Energy demand, and certainty mobility demand, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It is probably too early to say, but it will have a permanent knock for years”
  • “It is most likely not going to be a v-shaped recovery.”
  • Shell & others have had to reduce spending sharply, postpone investment and will continue to do so “for some time to come”
via Reuters
The head of Shell spoke in an online interview, in a nutshell said that there will be no V-shaped recovery for the global economy after the coronavirus epidemic

Saudi Aramco has reduced the volume of crude it will supply to Asia

Reuters report citing four unnamed sources that the world’s largest oil exporter has cut August heavy crude supply for some Asian refiners

  • at least four buyers in Asia
  • cuts were mainly for Arab Heavy crude
No further details in the Reuters report.

US to impose restrictions on additional Chinese media outlets

The US has earmarked another four state-run Chinese media outlets as foreign embassies says Reuters.

  • Doing so results in increased restrictions on their operations on US soil
  • five Chinese outlets were placed under the restrictions in February
The State Department action could come on Thursday says the report. To include:
  • China Central Television (CCTV)
  • China News Service
Reuters citing three people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.
Adding to US-China strains further.

Reuters Tankan (May) – Business sentiment hits decade lows

Reuters report on their monthly Tanakn survey for May 2020:

  • slump in Japan business mood deepens, hits decade lows again on coronavirus woes

Manufacturers index -44 in May vs -30 in April,  falls to lowest level since June 2009

  • non-manufacturers index -36 vs -23 …  lowest level since Dec 2009

Manufacturers august index seen at -51

  • non-manufacturers -48
The BOJ easy money policy is firmly entrenched, such a dire outlook in Japan. The extent you use central bank policy to assist your currency view, bearish yen.

Saudi supports cooperation to stabilise oil market, blames Russia for current turmoil – Gulf source

Actions speak louder than words

Oil

According to Reuters – citing a senior Gulf source familiar with Saudi Arabia – the kingdom “has always welcomed cooperation among oil producers to stabilise the market, based on the principles of fairness and equity”.

Adding that producers were forced to end all voluntary supply restraint because of Russia’s rejection to deeper oil output cuts in the OPEC+ meeting last month.

“It was Russia’s position that triggered the collapse of the OPEC+ agreement.. this caused massive instability in oil markets”, said the source.

Well, actions speak louder than words. The fact that both sides continue to put on this show for the world, where they are still not talking, just means that no real cooperation is imminent and that continues to bode ill for oil prices so long as this continues.

Japanese business sentiment has fallen to a decade low (Reuters Tankan)

Bad data from the March survey, which is not surprising. ‘Highlights’ via Reuters report:

  • manufacturers’ sentiment index -20 vs Feb -5
  • Service-sector index -10 in March vs +15 in Feb
  • Manufacturers mood down ahead, service-sector flat
souring business mood could derail capital spending
All manufacturers across industries were pessimistic about business conditions,
Among service sector firms, no firms except those in real estate/construction and information/communications were optimistic.
Most of the companies expressed fears of the virus’ impact on their business, on top of already weak consumer spending due to an October sales tax hike and sluggish global demand aggravated by the U.S.-China trade war.
Reuters poll of 501 large- and mid-sized nonfinancial companies, of which 242 firms responded
Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey is due April 1

G7 statement still under discussion

Reuters citing an unnamed source

  • statement being drafted on coronavirus response
  • to be issued Tuesday or Wednesday
  • does not include specific language calling for fresh fiscal spending or coordinated interest rate cuts
  • finance leaders will pledge to work together to mitigate economic damage
  • statement still under discussion,. language subject to change
Uh-oh …. this’ll put a cat amongst the pigeons
Prompting Flows into yen

OPEC reportedly discussing additional output cut of up to 1 mil bpd now

Reuters reports, citing OPEC sources on the matter

OPEC

This is similar to the story reported by the FT earlier today here. It is said that several OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, are leaning towards a deeper oil output cut because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Yeah, I’m not sure if Russia is going to get on board with that. In any case, Saudi Arabia is likely going to have to do the bulk of the heavy lifting here to push this through.
Even then, I’m not sure if it would be enough to turn sentiment around in the oil market as the virus outbreak continues to be more widespread across the globe.