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Donchian's 20 Trading Guides (First publication: 1934)

General Guides:

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.

  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.

  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.

  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.

  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.

  6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.

  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons – a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%

  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable.  In closing a position, use market orders.”

  9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.

  10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag. (more…)

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides

richard-donchian
Richard Donchian is best known for developing the Donchian Channel Indicator. This is a simple trend following tool that detects and alerts you to breakouts by plotting the highest high and the lowest low over the last period time interval which the user specifies.
Through his many years of trading and writing weekly newsletters (Commodity Trend Timing), Richard Donchian shares with us some very valuable trend trading wisdom.

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing. (more…)

Whatever You Think … Think the Opposite

Don’t be negative about rejection. It happens.

Work for free, if necessary.

Good grades will not secure you an interesting life. Imagination will.

Go to work and do your learning in the school of life.

Start your own company, then you have control of your own destiny.

Form your own opinion.

Having the courage to stand up in the face of public opinion is what makes you a winner.

Have a goal.

How you present yourself is how others will value you.

If you want to be interesting, be interested.

When things go wrong it tempting to shift the blame. Don’t.

Knowledge makes us play safe. The secret is to stay childish.

When it’s right, it just clicks.

Richard Donchian's 20 trading guides

General Guides:

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.
  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons – a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%.
  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides:

  1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected. (more…)

Guidelines from Donchian

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation to the chart formation.
  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50 percent profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100 percent profit.
  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

The greater the story, the greater the bubble

The greater fool theory explains almost every bubble

Some things have an intrinsic value. The most-obvious example is a stock with a dividend. The absolute floor for an equity is its dividend and so long as their is a profitable business behind it, the value is a multiple of that dividend.

Other things don’t have an intrinsic value. This includes virtually everything that doesn’t produce a yield. Oftentimes, prices of those things rise and fall based on future expectations of what profits or yield might be. In other cases, there is an estimation of utility. Oil, for instance, can be refined into gasoline which can be used to move things or for dozens of other uses.

Oftentimes there is a dispute about utility or a dispute about future profitability, which can lead to a dispute about prices. One way to resolve this is a model but oftentimes that’s so fraught with assumptions that it’s useless.

So how do you establish prices? Obviously, via the market.

This is when storytelling, which is another way of saying a sales job, takes over.

Cryptocurrencies are an obvious example. A Bitcoin has no yield but it has some utility. To some, that utility is replacing the US dollar as a global transparent currency. To others, it’s a way to facilitate transactions. And for others still, it’s a handy tool for criminal transactions. How you price it then, depends on how you view the future utility.

Or does it? (more…)

THE BED OF PROCRUSTES

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the former trader and well known author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, has put together a new book of aphorisms, entitled The Bed of Procrustes.  The Procrustes of Greek mythology was a cruel fellow who stretched or shortened people to make them fit his inflexible bed. Mr. Taleb’s new book addresses the modern day ways in which “we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”  In other words, we live under self-imposed delusions.  Here are a few of the aphorisms that expose our delusionary thinking, many of which can be applied to trading.  But, in order to understand their application, we must first step out of our delusional state.

The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.

You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.

The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.

You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about.”

The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true.

The difference between banks and the Mafia: banks have better legal-regulatory expertise, but the Mafia understands public opinion.

They would take forecasting more seriously if it were pointed out to them that in Semitic languages the words for forecast and “prophecy” are the same.

The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.

I wonder is anyone ever measured the time it takes, at a party, before a mildly successful stranger who went to Harvard makes others aware of it.

It takes a lot of intellect and confidence to accept that what makes sense doesn’t really make sense.

Education makes the wise slightly wiser, but makes the fool vastly more dangerous.

The best revenge on a liar is to convince him that you believe what he said.

How often have you arrived one, three, or six hours late on a transatlantic flight as opposed to one, three, or six hours early?  This explains why deficits tend to be larger, rarely smaller, than planned.

The most painful moments are not those we spend with uninteresting people; rather, they are those spent with uninteresting people trying hard to be interesting.

The characteristic feature of the loser is to bemoan, in general terms, mankind’s flaws, biases, contradictions, and irrationality-without exploiting them for fun and profit.

You don’t become completely free by just avoiding to be a slave; you also need to avoid becoming a master.

The fastest way to become rich is to socialize with the poor; the fastest way to become poor is to socialize with the rich.

Some, like most bankers, are so unfit for success that they look like dwarves in giants’ clothes.

Over the long term, you are more likely to fool yourself than others.

It is those who use others who are the most upset when someone uses them.

A genius is someone with flaws harder to imitate than his qualities.

It is much less dangerous to think like a man of action than to act like a man of thought.

What I learned on my own I still remember.

Regular minds find similarities in stories (and situations); finer minds detect differences.

The tragedy is that much of what you think is random is in your control and, what’s worse, the opposite.

You can only convince people who think they can benefit from being convinced.

Trust people who make a living lying down or standing up more than those who do so sitting down.

Even the cheapest misers can be generous with advice.

The difference between magnificence and arrogance is in what one does when nobody is looking.

When conflicted between two choices, take neither.

A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see.

You know you have influence when people start noticing your absence more than the presence of others.

There is much more where the above came from but you will have to get up out of bed, head to the bookstore, and find out for yourself.  May be worth the trip.

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