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Revolutionary Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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Everyone thinks the market is a game of numbers. We use complex models, umpteen oscillators or retracement calculations and even a fundamental analysis of supply and demand – all based in numbers and about numbers.

But in reality, the numbers of the market are but an illusion.

Markets are only the vacillating prices that other human beings, using the same mathematically based tools, are willing to pay. For example, what can be expensive one day can be very cheap the next if a trend has ensued.

It is only a matter of perspective. And perspective is a matter of the judgments you make.

Judgments on the other hand will be influenced by both impulsive feelings and by intuitive feelings – or pattern recognition. The trick is to have all the data on the table so you can tell the difference.

In order to do this, us market participants need to do a couple of things – give up the notion of a iron-clad trading plan based purely on historical probabilities and replace it with a trading plan based on historical probabilities (yes you read that right) AND a systematic way to leverage your judgment under uncertainty. This way you can make a decision about factors that may now be in play for the future probabilities. I mean who thought the VIX could stay over 30 for 6 months? … I am just askin.

Now in order to do this successfully, you have got to learn to optimize your judgments – which means spending more time focused on deciphering and understanding them than you spend on deciphering and understanding the charts.

This is revolutionary trading psychology – and it works.

Successful Investors Traits to Be the Next Warren Buffett

  
  Education
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Here’s a great speech by Mark Sellers to Harvard graduates.

It’s titled So You Want to Be the Next Warren Buffett and discusses 7 traits you need to be different.

Trait #1 – Ability to buy and sell stocks against the market

Trait #2 – Obsession

Trait #3 – Willingness to learn from past mistakes

Trait #4 – Inherent sense of risk based on common sense

Trait #5 – Confidence and Conviction

Trait #6 – Get both sides of your brain working

Trait #7 – Ability to live through volatility

A new investment scam out there

  
  Education
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NEW SCAM100% return in 4 weeks ! (Guaranteed)
Trick 1) ; Client has to show that he has at least 1 M $USD (with due diligence done on the source of the funds)
Trick 2) ; Client’s funds are never removed from his bank (they show you their contracts, urgent you to show your lawyers, and bankers).
Trick 3) ; Bank issues a confirmation that client has the 1 M $ (clean money)
Trick 4) ; The salesmen then pretends that traders in London will borrow money based on that “confirmation document” and invested in the Forex market ; he then pretends that my client will collect 100% in 4 weeks.
Salesmen usually look above 40, well dressed.
Where is the trick ? Psychological ……….
1) Safety ; they repeat over and over that your money stays with you
2) They call you everday (after market close), and tell you what they traded 🙂
3) After 4 weeks of daily calls, you are so pumped up that you want your 100%
NOW.
4) Before paying you, they ask you to pay the traders, and the salesmen
commissions.
5) You pay 5% ……. then ? Nothing comes …….
Pure psychology ……
Pass this info around
PS : your friends will be in denial at first ; telling you that your are jealous ….

Chess and Trading

  
  Education
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As an avid fan of the game of the KINGS, I have never paid attention before between the amazing similarities between chess and trading, until I read a BRUCE PANDOLFINI book called “Every move must have it’s purpose”

This is an amazing game that is not fully devoted to trading but to the concepts of business and chess and how they look alike.

Understanding the concepts is basic in chess or trading. Concepts are more important than theory.

Let me do a quick lecture about those concepts.

 

The first concepts he points is “Play the board not the opponent”. This is an amazing concept and clearly fits any trader and their psychology. The board is the chart and the opponent in this case is our own emotions. A player must focus on the board and his game only. Same the trader.

 

The second concepts is “ Don’t ignore a good hunch” This can clearly applies to the traders especially like me, who trades intuitive. Many times You do not have an entry setup that fits your rule but it doesn’t violate either but You know there is a big move coming, I can not explain it butyou feel the move and you take it and voila clink$$.You may not understand it because we try to rationalize but our right side of the brain is telling us “this is correct”. Go for it.

 

Third concept “Play with a plan”.We need to have an edge, a methodology and stay with it. In chess if you do not have a strategy you are going to be massacred. Same in the markets. Move your pieces in a nonsensical way and you are out of the game in less than 12 moves. (more…)

Tips For Mental Toughness of trading psychology

  
  Education
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Here are three things you can do to keep your mind and body focused on the trading:
1. Be aware of what is going on in your mind, body and feelings. Slipping into an internal focus seems automatic because we aren’t fully aware of it as it is happening. Being aware of what the mind is saying and how we are feeling is the first important step in mental toughness. You can catch yourself before things spiral out of control.
2. Know what trading actions are important to take. These are high-value actions (HVAs) under the trader’s control. HVAs are relevant to trading and include identifying sound trade setups and solid entry triggers. You must know these cold and be ready to execute them.
3. Commit to high value actions regardless of how you feel. This means being willing to accept unwanted thoughts and feelings because trading well is more important than feeling good. Maintaining an external focus and initiating positive trading actions may not be easy when feeling down, but it’s certainly not impossible. Like all skills, it takes practice.

10 Behavioral Economics/Psychology Books for Investors

  
Analysis, Education
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As a species, we are notoriously bad at understanding our own thinking and emotions. We are even worse at predicting our own behavior. Understanding your own mind and those of your fellow investors is crucial to successful investing.
These books will go a long way to helping you understand your hardwired weaknesses and blind spots.
 
1. How We Know What Isn’t So by Thomas Gilovich
Thomas Gilovich: How We Know What Isn't So
Published in 1991, this was the very first behavioral finance book I ever read — it is also one of the most influential investing books you will ever read. So many of our own foibles are detailed here that it is almost embarrassing. Everything from unsuspected biases to how we engage in critical reasoning comes under scrutiny. What it reveals isn’t pretty. Despite the genius that is human achievement, it turns out that we are all very poor at comprehending complex data and analyzing risk.
This book will help you understand how your brain processes randomness; overlooks evidence that is inapposite to prior beliefs; selectively perceives and reinterprets data; and engages in selective recall. It’s how we all create an artificial story line to help make sense of otherwise incomprehensible data.
Once you finish this book, you will never look at investing the same way.
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2.  Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)

Daniel Kahneman, a Psychologist, won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Amos Tversky for their seminal work in behavioral finance. The two challenged the idea of Homo Economicus and the rational model of judgment and decision making.
Thinking, Fast and Slow  looks at the two systems of Human Cognition: System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The book exposes the extraordinary capabilities along with the faults and biases of our wetware. This book will transform the way you think about thinking.
The most recent and comprehensive book from a giant in the field.

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7 Weakest Points of Trading

  
  Education
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The weakest part of any trading method is the trader themselves. There are many, many, robust trading systems and methods that do make money in the long term. The problem is the trader having the discipline and mental toughness to trade one of them consistently. The vast majority of time it is not a system failure but traders that fail in this game through one of seven common errors. If you can understand these error and overcome them you could make a lot of money in the right market conditions.

  1. The trader must have the discipline to take the system’s entries and exits.
  2. The trader must have the discipline to take the stop loss on a losing trade when it is hit and not keep holding and start hoping.
  3. No matter the method the trader has to manage risk through proper position sizing, getting greedy and trading too big will blow up even the best systems.
  4. It is the trader that must have the perseverance to stick to the method even during losing periods, and also stick with trading until success is reached.
  5. If a trader can not manage their mind then the stress will break them, I have seen this happen many times. If you can’t handle losing you can’t trade.
  6. The trader must find a robust method, must understand why it has an edge, and must believe in their methodology.
  7. The trader has to know themselves and trade the method that fits their risk tolerance levels and own psychology. (more…)

Ten traits of successful people

  
Education, Life
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  1. Positive thinking. They think of success, not failure, regardless of how difficult the situation.
  2. Makes conscious decisions regarding what they’re after, and draw out specific plans to reach their goals.
  3. Action-oriented.
  4. Never stop learning.
  5. Being persistent and hard working.
  6. Analyze details and seek out all the facts.
  7. Focused, doesn’t let other people or things distract them from their goals. Learns to save money.
  8. Being innovative.
  9. Communicate with others effectively
  10. Integrity.

About Winning, About Losing

  
  Education
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People lose money at the stock market for very simple reasons:

1. They don’t have a method at all. They rely on other people opinions.

2. People don’t have a winning method. The method they are trading has a negative expectancy. Being disciplined about stop losses and position sizing won’t help, if you are trading a losing method. Expectancy changes with volatility. When your method stops providing satisfying results, you either find another that is working in the current market conditions or stay on the side until things change.

3. Those who have a winning strategy often don’t use it. They get emotional and forget about their strategy.

“Good trading is 10% technology and 90% psychology. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them” (Maoxian)

Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them — 1) Trade with the trend. 2) Cut losses short. 3) Let profits run. 4) Manage risk.

There is a big difference between knowing something and applying it. Most people don’t use what they know.

 

A trader is the weakest link of any trading system

  
  Education
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So true. Tony Robbins also said “Success for anything is 80% of psychology and 20% of mechanics”. A trading system is mechanics of trading. If a trader has an absolutely winning trading system, but he/she has failed to execute it. This system is failure. For who can follow it consistently, it is a great system. So who is more important? It is the trader or the system?

Some people say it is hard to design a winning system. Or I don’t know how to do? Does it really true? Read what Richard Dennis said.

The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.

Richard Dennis has also proved that trading is a skill not talent. Tony Robbins also said “Every skill is learnable”

 

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