1. “Between stimulus and response, lies our freedom to choose” – Steven Covey
This quote is very important. What it tells us as traders is that there should be a specific setup you’re looking for (a pattern of sorts) and then aspecific protocol that follows it. Too many traders just “wing it” when they are trading instead of having a specific setup and plan that they know works and they know what their risk/reward is. If you don’t know what you’re looking for and you don’t know exactly what you’re doing when you see it, you’re likely headed down the wrong path.
2. Stick to your plan.
It’s extremely easy to lose focus of what you’re doing and start doing what someone else is doing. Stick to your trading plan and what you know works.
3. Ignore the noise.
Noise comes in a variety of ways. At times it’s economics news, at times it’s other traders. It’s not uncommon for traders to seek what other traders think about their trades because they are unsure about their trade setups. Noise for many traders usually results in less profits and larger losses.
4. Be patient.
Anyone who is successful at anything has patience. Whether it’s an athlete, your favorite musician or successful entrepreneurs, they all have patience. You don’t become successful without having patience. Just as important it is to have a set plan and rules, patience is just as important. (more…)
Archives of “profits” tag
rssWhat's the difference between winning traders and losing traders?
Well, first, there are a few similarities. Both are completely consumed by the idea of trading. The winners as well as losers have committed to doing this, and have no intention of ‘going 
back’. This same black-and-white mentality was evident in their personal lives too. But what about the differences? Here’s what Williams observed:
The losing traders have unrealistic expectations about the kind of profits they can make, typically shooting too high. They also debate with themselves before taking a trade, and even dwell on a trade well after it’s closed out. But the one big thing Williams noticed about this group was that they paid little attention to money management (i.e. defense).And the winners? This group has an intense focus on money management, and will voluntarily exit a trade if it’s not moving – even if it’s not losing money at that time! There is also very little internal dialogue about trade selection and trade management; this group just takes action instead of suffering analysis paralysis. Finally, the winning traders focused their attention on a small niche in the market or a few techniques, rather than trying to be able to do everything. Hopefully the second description fits you a little better, but if the first one seems a little too familiar, you now at least know how to start getting past that barrier.
Suggestions to Speculators
Be a Cynic When Reading the Tape
We must be cynics when reading the tape. I do not mean that we should be pessimists, because we must have open minds always, without preconceived opinions. An inveterate bull, or bear, cannot hope to trade successfully. The long-pull investor may never be anything but a bull, and, if he hangs on long enough, will probably come out all right. But a trader should be a cynic. Doubt all before you believe anything. Realize that you are playing the coldest, bitterest game in the world.
Almost anything is fair in stock trading. The whole idea is to outsmart the other fellow. It is a game of checkers with the big fellows playing against the public. Many a false move is engineered to catch our kings. The operators have the advantage in that the public is generally wrong.
They are at a disadvantage in that they must put up the capital; they risk fortunes on their judgment of conditions. We, on the other hand, who buy and sell in small lots, must learn to tag along with the insiders while they are accumulating and running up their stocks; but we must get out quickly when they do. We cannot hope to be successful unless we are willing to study and practice—and take losses!
But you will find so much in Part Three of this book about taking losses, about limiting losses and allowing profits to run, that I shall not take up your thought with the matter now.
So, say I, let us be hard-boiled cynics, believing nothing but what the action of the market tells us. If we can determine the supply and demand which exists for stocks, we need not know anything else.
If you had 10,000 shares of some stock to sell, you would adopt tactics, maneuver false moves, throw out information, and act in a manner to indicate that you wanted to buy, rather than sell; would you not? Put yourself in the position of the other fellow. Think what you would do if you were in his position. If you are contemplating a purchase, stop to think whether, if you act contrary to your inclination, you would not be doing the wiser thing, remembering that the public is usually wrong.
EXIT in Trading
Exit– The exit is critical to being a successful trader. Let your winners run and your losers run out quickly. Two factors determine your exit, the Target and the Stop loss you have set on entering the trade.
1. The Target is determined by the type of market and the trading history of the stock.
2. If the trade proceeds in your direction move the Stop loss keeping it tight.
3. It the trade continues to move, you may want to take your money off the table!
4. Profits should be taken before reaching a S/R. SO WHAT if it continues to run after you left!
5. Take Profits quickly and often! And remember discretion is the better part of valor.
6. The two most important factors in determining the Stop loss are the last S/R and providing enough margin for the trade to be successful. You must balance these against each other.
7. The Stop loss can be predetermined by your maximum loss limit but understand a small loss limit can positively impact your probability of success.
8. I must balance courage and common sense when staying in the trade. The money may be better used in another trade.
9. Remember small losses are the key to success in an environment where you may be wrong greater than 50% of the time.
10. Don’t give back, remember you can always get back in!
11. Don’t change my rules and therefore my settings.
Trading Decision-Making Process
There is a huge difference between a wish and a decision. A wish is a negative and puts the trader in a frozen state waiting for something to happen (generally associated with trying to get even on losing trades). That is negatively charged energy. Decisions, on the other hand, are positively charged energy. It makes the trader take action. Taking action is taking responsibility. You alone are responsible for your current mental state or condition. Decisions can be both good and bad of course. The sooner the trader realized the bad decision, the sooner they can act to correct it.
The first step in the decision-making process is to realize that what you are doing is not working. Remember that falling down is a positive motions is you bounce right back. Make a list of the positive and negative things that will happen when you take action on the decision.
Don’t expect instant gratification if you make the decision. Decision-making is a process that begins with the first step but these steps are the foundation for a stronger behavioral structure. This structure will give you the confidence in your trading. Confidence plays a key role in successful trading. Having the confidence necessary for successful trading can help the trader in difficult trading environments. Whereas one trader lacking confidence and good decision-making skills may be frozen and unable to act, the trader who has taken the time to build this foundation will be prepared to take the appropriate actions.
Many times specific decisions a trader makes will not yield profits, they will result in a loss, but more importantly, it will position the trader to be able to recognize and act on the next opportunity. Practicing and applying this process will pay dividends throughout your lifetime.
The 7 Best Ways to Exit a Trade
In trading the money is not made in the entry, it is in the exit. The art of the exit is crucial to a traders success in the markets. Profits can disappear if you do not take them at the right time, small losses can become huge losses if you do not cut them. Small profits can become huge profits if you let them run until they truly stop. Keeping capital tied up in a trade going nowhere and just letting it sit there can cause you to miss out on other great opportunities.
So what is a trader to do?
- Use stop losses, only risk 1% of your total trading capital on any one trade, when you have lost that 1%, get out. Position sizing, stop losses, and understanding volatility is key.
- Enter trades right at break out points to new highs or off key price support levels or key moving average support levels. If it loses that support later and fails to retake it quickly then sell it.
- Buy when a stock is one ‘R’ multiple above a key support level, sell if it falls back and loses that support level. (One ‘R’ multiple = 1% of total trading capital).
- Use a ‘stale’ or ‘time’ stop: Set a time limit on how long you will give a trade to move a certain amount, if it fails to move enough fast enough, get out.
- Volatility stop. The market or your stock has a big expansion in its daily price range or starts moving against you the full daily range. You either cut your position down in size or get out due to increased risk.
- You trail a stop loss behind your winner, when it reverses and hits that stop you sell. A trailing stop can be a moving average or a percentage you your gain.
- You sell your position because you have found a much better trade with a better probability of success or a bigger upside.
The key above all else is always to have a plan to get out of every trade before you get in. Before each trading day begins think about what you will do based on the price levels your open trade is at.
Successful Traders Must Have Discipline
Discipline is paramount for success over the LONG term. Every trader has a limited amount of capital (money) available to trade. The trader without discipline will make trades, be quick take the profit when he is right, and call his trade an investment when he is wrong.
This action of cutting winners and letting losers run will almost certainly eventually lead to trading capital being wiped out. The natural tendency in humans is to take profits. Learning to cut losing positions and let winners run is a skill that must be developed.
Have you ever caught yourself saying any of the following statements to justify inaction on cutting a losing position?
- I am holding on to this trade and hoping it recovers
- If I didn’t own it already I would be buying it here
- I just want to get back to break even and then I will get out
- The market is wrong
Everyone has said these things at some point in their trading lives, but let me tell you, any time your position requires HOPE it is likely HOPELESS!
If you say I would buy it here and you don’t want to buy more – you may be better off selling what you have!
The market doesn’t know or care what price you bought a position. The market price of a stock is the value of that stock right here, right now! Even though the market presents opportunities, market pricing is not WRONG.
While I am not giving buy sell or hold advice, I would strongly recommend that when you find yourself staring at a losing position consider selling it! If you close it out completely, you can really make an honest determination when you ask yourself, “Do I REALLY want to own it here?”
Too often I see traders let their existing positions do the talking for them. Don’t fall into that trap!
Book Review: No One Would Listen
This is a book about Harry Markopolos, who is the author of this book. He talks about how he attempted for years to expose the fraud that was Bernie Madoff.
The book takes the following form (from my view of how the author sees it):
- How he came to a quick conclusion that Bernie Madoff was a fraud.
- How he tried to convince others of that view, especially those that were feeding more money to Madoff.
- Two journalists took his side and wrote about Madoff in 2001 or so, but to no avail.
- Trying to come up with a similar strategy that would work, though it would return much less than Madoff’s supposed returns, and finding few would invest in it.
- Fruitless wranglings with the clueless SEC.
- Finally, in 2009, Madoff blows up.
- Vindicated, he talks to the media, Congress, and anyone who will listen.
- He excoriates the toothless SEC, and proposes better ways to root out financial fraud.
That’s the book in a nutshell. But stylistically, the book harps on how no one would listen. Well, duh. No one did listen, or the book would have been over sooner.
People are not Vulcans. They aren’t logical. Most don’t think; instead, they mimic. “If it works for him, it will work for me also.”
That was the case with Madoff. He maneuvered many sheep into position to be fleeced, and worse, they begged for the privilege to be his clients.
There were many red flags flying:
- No independent custodian
- No independent Trustee
- Small Auditor, incapable of auditing such an enterprise.
- Returns were too smooth for being so high.
- The asset size was to large for the markets supposedly employed.
- Even front-running profits would not be enough, were Madoff to do that.
- No profit motive. Other managers with lesser track records charged more.
- Marketing was by invitation.
- Investors were sworn to secrecy.
- And more, read the book. (more…)
Re-Evaluate
Be willing to stop trading and re-evaluate the markets and your methodology when you encounter a string of losses. The markets will always be there. Gann said it best in his book, How to Make Profits in Commodities, published over 50 years ago: “When you make one to three trades that show losses, whether they be large or small, something is wrong with you and not the market. Your trend may have changed. My rule is to get out and wait. Study the reason for your losses. Remember, you will never lose any money by being out of the market.”
Aim Small, Miss Small
As many of you already know, one of the biggest factors in successful trading is how well you manage the trade – that is the stop-losses you place, the amount of capital that you put to work, where you take profits, and how you protect the profits that you already have. You could, no doubt, write many books on each of these subjects, but for now, I’m going to focus on a small, but critical aspect of risk-management and my inspiration comes from the movie “The Patriot”, which happens to be one of my favorite movies of all time.
In the clip below, Benjamin Martin (the father) asks his two young boys, “What Did I tell ya ‘fellas about shooting?” and they replied, “Aim Small, Miss Small”. Every time I hear those words I tell myself how true they ring across so many spectrums of life. As an avid hunter, if you just aim the gun at the direction of the game you are targeting, you are bound to miss. However, if you pick out a tiny, specific area of the animal, whether its the upper-right side of the chest, or some other smaller area, you have a much better chance of hitting your target. In fact, the smaller the target area, the lesser amount of margin for error you have in missing.
So how does this apply to trading, you must be asking? The stop-loss that we set in relation to our entry price is a reflection of our “Trading-Aim”
When I trade, I look for setups that are as close as possible to a desirable stop-loss. By desirable, that means I’m not just picking a spot that is 1 or 2% from my entry price for the sake of it being so, instead, if I am long, I am going to look to place a stop-loss somewhere underneath a critical support level, and if I am short, then I am going to place a stop just above an area of resistance. So the place that I choose for my stop-loss is that of a strategic area and a point to where I know, that if it hits the stop, I know that my thesis is no longer valid and therefore, I must exit the trade. (more…)