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R.W. Schabacker, the financial editor of Forbes magazine, penned the following advice (warning) in 1934

No trader can ever expect to be correct in every one of his market transactions. No individual, however well he may be grounded, no matter how much experience he has had in practical market operation, can expect to be infallible. There will always be mistakes, some unwise judgments, some erroneous moves, some losses. The extent to which such losses materialize, to which they are allowed to become serious, will almost invariably determine whether the individual is to be successful in his long-range investing activities or whether such accumulated losses are finally to wreck him on the shoals of mental despair and financial tragedy.

THE TRUE TEST

It is easy enough to manage those commitments which progress smoothly and successfully to one’s anticipated goal. The true test of market success comes when the future movement is not in line with anticipated developments, when the trader is just plain wrong in his calculations, and when his investment begins to show a loss instead of a profit. If such situations are not properly handled, if one or two losing positions are allowed to get out of control, then they can wipe out a score of successful profits and leave the individual with a huge loss on balance. It is just as important-nay, even more important-to know when to dessert a bad bargain, take one’s loss and count it a day, as it is to know when to close out a successful transaction which has brought profit.

LIMITS ARE A MUST

The staggering catastrophes which ruin investors, mentally, morally, and financially, are not contingent upon the difference between a 5 percent loss limit and a 20 percent loss limit. They stem from not having established any limit at all on the possible loss. Any experienced market operator can tell you that his greatest losses have been taken by those, probably rare, instances when he substituted stubbornness for loss limitation, when he bought more of a stock which was going down, instead of selling some of it to lighten his risk, when he allowed pride of personal opinion to replace conservative faith in the cold judgment of the market place. (more…)

21 Things a Trader Should Know About Trading

1. Never try to make money the same way twice in a row.lip25

2. Don’t trade inactive markets.

3. Don’t assume that the relation between your two favorite markets will stay the same from year to year.

4. Be alert to big minimums on Monday as they tend to reverse.

5. Try not to sell markets that have big drifts upwards like stocks.

6. Try to go with with the central banks.

7. Be one with the idea that has the world in its grip and be on the side of the market that will further that grip.

8. Never go for small profits as the vig is too great relative to your gain as a %.

9. Don’t trade when a loved one is very sick. (more…)

Overconfidence

OverConfidenceIt is common for traders to complain of a lack of confidence in their trading, but very often it is overconfidence that does them in.  Overconfidence results from a lack of appreciation of the complexity of markets and an underestimation of the challenges of trading them successfully.  In a sense, overconfident traders lack respect for the markets.  They think that reading about a few setups or buying the newest software will prepare them to make money.  Overconfident traders don’t want to work their way up the trading ladder:  they resist the idea that screen time is the best teacher.  They also chafe at the idea of growing their account.  Rather than start with one contract and wait until they’re profitable before trading larger size, they want big positions—and profits—right away. Because they’re so eager to make money—and so sure they can make it—overconfident traders generally trade impulsively.  They won’t wait for the setup to form; they’ll jump the gun—and get whipsawed in the process.  Instead of being patient and waiting for short-term patterns to align with longer-term patterns, they will take every trade, enriching their brokers in the process. (more…)

Trading Wisdom Via Linda Raschke

It’s important as a trader to always be studying and sharpening your skills. Here is a short video jammed packed with concepts from Linda Raschke that all traders can use in their trading plan.
Key concepts from the video:

  • The fewer decisions that you can make during the trading day, the better off you will be.
  • All exit strategies should be based of your initial entry.
  • 75% of trades test out best by taking your profits quickly.
  • Shorter the time frame, the less justification for trailing stops.
  • Trend followers often pay up to ensure they get a position.

 

17th Century Rules of Speculation

While much of these thoughts are outdated, it’s always a good idea to have a foundation of the first rules of speculation. Number 4 is dead on that you need to trade with money you don’t need and the patience to allow the trade to work out or not work.

What is a goblin treasure btw?

Rules of Speculation

  1. Never advise anyone to buy/sell shares. Where guessing correctly is a form of witchcraft, council cannot be put on airs.
  2. Accept both your profits and regrets. It is best to seize what comes to hand when it comes, and not expect that your good fortune and the favorable circumstances will last.
  3. Profit in the share market is goblin treasure: at one moment it is carbuncles, the next it is coal, one moment diamonds, and the next pebbles. Sometimes, they are the tears that Aurora leaves on the sweet morning’s grass, at other times, they are just tears.
  4. He who wishes to become rich from this game much have both money and patience.

Note: these rules are from “Confusion of Confusions” by Jose de la Vega in the year 1688. Vega was a successful merchant, poet, and philanthropist residing in the 17th century Amsterdam. This book represents the oldest known hints of technical analysis and his accounts of the Dutch markets in the 17th century.

Livermores Seven Trading Lessons

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.

There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.

Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise. (more…)

Dealing with entry timing

How do you personally get around from being “too early” or “too late” on an entry?

There are a few things that have helped me get over missing a trade or “being right” and not making money.

  • Opportunity vs profit. I thought the market owed me profits.  Now, I see the bars on the chart not as profit but an opportunity to profit.  The market does not owe me anything.  I owe it to myself to execute my plan to the best of my ability.  Good things happen.
  • Important feedback. If a trade develops in a way that I had not anticipated, it means I did not notice a change.  It is now up to me to understand why or determine it was an aberration.  Either way the market is giving me valuable feedback.
  • Unlimited time horizon. One of the side effects of trading is missing trades.  It is something that you have to get over.  It is a fact of life.  The next trade is always more important than the last one.  You should have more experience and knowledge, right?  Knowledge of yourself, the market, and the interaction between the two.

Said in one sentence.  I get over missing trades because I do not have a sense of entitlement, willing to use the feedback, and know that it is just one trade in 1000′s or hopefully 10,000′s.

Focus

The goal of a successful professional in any field is to reach his personal best. You need to concentrate on trading right. Each trade has to be handled like a surgical procedure – seriously, soberly, without sloppiness or shortcuts. This is a stock trading risk management plan. A loser cannot cut his losses quickly. When a trade starts going sour, he hopes and hangs on, and his loses pile up. And as soon as he gets out of a trade, the market comes roaring back.

  • Trends reverse when they do because most losers are alike. They act on their gut feeling instead of using their heads. The emotions of people are similar, regardless of their cultural background or educational levels.
     
  • Emotional traders go into risky gambles to avoid taking certain losses. It is human nature to take profits quickly and postpone taking losses. Emotional trading destroys those who lose. Good money management and timing techniques will keep you out of the hole. Losing traders look for a “sure thing”, hang on to hope, and irrationally avoid accepting small losses.

7 Words for Traders

  • Think risk first and profit second — Profitable traders view every potential and actual trade through the lens of risk or whether they are willing to truly accept the potential damage to their account as opposed to focusing on the potential reward of trades.7
  • Accept risk — Profitable traders truly accept the associated risks once they decide the potential reward is worth it.  These traders understand that in order to win consistently they MUST experience controlled losses.  They know that if they minimize losses and exercise patience with winners, they can reap incredible profits.
  • Think more/Trade less –  Profitable traders know that their profit on every trade lay in the short distance between their ears.  They understand that the siren song of securities is an invitation to trouble much of the time.  They spend more time assessing a security’s overall chart structure and identifying optimal transaction points rather than focusing on the physical activity of clicking an entry or exit.
  • Stalkers — Profitable traders are disciplined and patient.  They will pass up a good entry to wait for a great one.
  • Decisive — Profitable traders make decisions.  They know that as long as their decisions are framed properly (i.e. from a risk perspective), their first thought is generally the right one.
  • Forgetful — Profitable traders have short memories.  As we were told many years ago on a Wall Street trading desk, “If you have a losing trade, forget it quickly… the chance to profit is coming up.  If you have a winning trade, forget it even more quickly… the chance to give up those profits is coming up… stay in the moment.”
  • Group think — Profitable traders care little for any one trade.  They know they have already taken steps to minimize the impact of any single trade.  Instead they focus on groups of trades as groups are more indicative of their process… which is what’s really important.

Amos Hostetter: One Great Trend Trader

Amos Hostetter: Trading Dont’s

  • Don’t sacrifice your position for fluctuations.
  • Don’t expect the market to end in a blaze of glory. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t expect the tape to be a lecturer. It’s enough to see that something is wrong.
  • Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
  • Don’t imagine that a market that has once sold at 150 must be cheap at 130.
  • Don’t buck the market trend.
  • Don’t look for the breaks. Look out for warnings.
  • Don’t try to make an average from a losing game.
  • Never keep goods that show a loss, and sell those that show a profit. Get out with the least loss, and sit tight for greater profits.

Amos Hostetter: Dangers in Trading caused by Human Nature

  • Fear: fearful of profit and one acts too soon.
  • Hope: hope for a change in the forces against one.
  • Lack of confidence in ones own judgment.
  • Never cease to do your own thinking.
  • A man must not swear eternal allegiance to either the bear or bull side.
  • The individual fails to stick to facts!
  • People believe what it pleases them to believe.

Think about how simple Hostetter’s wisdom appears on the surface. But how many adhere to such principles?

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