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Overconfidence in Trading

Overconfidence bias is an magnified belief in your competence as a trader. Any trader who finds themselves thinking that they know the business inside-out and that they have nothing more to learn and that profits are theirs for the taking, may well suffer from an overconfidence bias. 

Dangers of Overconfidence 
Overconfident traders tend to get themselves into trouble by trading too frequently or by placing tremendously large trades with the plan of making a killing. It’s not inevitable, but an overconfident investor invites misfortune. 

Are You Overconfident? 
If you want to identify whether you have a tendency to be overconfident, ask yourself, “Have I ever delayed or reversed a decision because I couldn’t accept that I was wrong?” Likewise, you could ask yourself, “Have I ever placed more on a trade than what I know is really sensible?” 

Overcoming Overconfidence 
One way to overcome an overconfidence bias is to stick to a strict set of risk management rules. These rules should limit the number of markets you invest in, the number of Contracts for difference you trade at one time, how much you are willing to risk on any one trade and how much of your account are you willing to lose before you take a break from trading and re-evaluate your trading strategy. 

OVERCONFIDENCE

It is common for traders to complain of a lack of confidence in their trading, but very often it is overconfidence that does them in. Overconfidence results from a lack of appreciation of the complexity of markets and an underestimation of the challenges of trading them successfully. In a sense, overconfident traders lack respect for the markets. They think that reading about a few setups or buying the newest software will prepare them to make money. Overconfident traders don’t want to work their way up the trading ladder: they resist the idea that screen time is the best teacher. They also chafe at the idea of growing their account. Rather than start with one contract and wait until they’re profitable before trading larger size, they want big positions—and profits—right away. Because they’re so eager to make money—and so sure they can make it—overconfident traders generally trade impulsively. They won’t wait for the setup to form; they’ll jump the gun—and get whipsawed in the process. Instead of being patient and waiting for short-term patterns to align with longer-term patterns, they will take every trade, enriching their brokers in the process. (more…)

Overconfidence

OverConfidenceIt is common for traders to complain of a lack of confidence in their trading, but very often it is overconfidence that does them in.  Overconfidence results from a lack of appreciation of the complexity of markets and an underestimation of the challenges of trading them successfully.  In a sense, overconfident traders lack respect for the markets.  They think that reading about a few setups or buying the newest software will prepare them to make money.  Overconfident traders don’t want to work their way up the trading ladder:  they resist the idea that screen time is the best teacher.  They also chafe at the idea of growing their account.  Rather than start with one contract and wait until they’re profitable before trading larger size, they want big positions—and profits—right away. Because they’re so eager to make money—and so sure they can make it—overconfident traders generally trade impulsively.  They won’t wait for the setup to form; they’ll jump the gun—and get whipsawed in the process.  Instead of being patient and waiting for short-term patterns to align with longer-term patterns, they will take every trade, enriching their brokers in the process. (more…)