Archives of “precious metals” tag

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Gold extends decline in third day of losses

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver
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Gold falls to the low of the day

Gold falls to the low of the day
Gold sank through $1700 and continued down to a session low of $1694 in a $16 decline. It’s the third day of selling this week and is being helped along by a strong dollar today.
The drop wipes out the mid-may rally and puts gold back in the middle of the April range.
The better risk tone and big moves in stocks are sparking flows out of gold and into risk assets.
Technically, this looks like a false break or at the very least a retest of the old range.
If central banks are the drivers of this rally, you have to worry about a scenario like the Bank of Israel early this week, where they upgraded growth forecasts and hinted at a time on the sidelines. I can easily see the Fed following the same playbook and that would undermine the short-term case for gold. It’s the same thing on the fiscal side where the better mood will slow the appetite for spending.

India’s gold demand fell 9 per cent in 2019 but set to recover: World Gold Council

  
  Analysis
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Indias gold demand was 9 per cent lower in 2019, at 690 tonne, primarily owing to the sharp surge in prices, however, it is expected to rebound in 2020, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

The council said India’s gold demand will be in the range of 700-800 tonnes in 2020 from 690 tonnes in 2019.

“Looking ahead, 2020 we expect policy-led and industry-led initiatives to bring a marked shift in making the industry more transparent and organised,” said Somasundaram PR, Managing Director, India, World Gold Council.

He added that the government has already made hallmarking mandatory on January 15, 2020 with a transition period of one year for the trade to sell or change its existing non hallmarked inventory.

“This is an overdue reform and a positive step towards making the Indian gold more trustworthy. These and other changes to follow are significantly positive for the long-term sustainability of demand, especially for the compliant and the organised,” Somasundaram added.

However, the report said that short-term challenges remain as large sections of the industry compete on low margins and fear tax uncertainty, leaving little incentive for long term investments and modern trade practices.

Globally, WGC said that Gold demand fell 1 per cent in 2019 as a huge rise in investment flows into ETFs and similar products was matched by the price-driven slump in consumer demand.

Besides, the central bank net purchases in 2019 were remarkable the report said. The annual total of 650.3 tonne is the second highest level of annual purchases for 50 years.

In total, 15 central banks increased their gold reserves by at least one tonne in 2019.

Demand was exclusive to emerging market central banks looking to bolster and diversify their overall reserve, WGC said.

McGuire, Hard Money

  
  Education
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As the number of books on investing in gold continues to proliferate, Shayne McGuire’s Hard Money: Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level (Wiley, 2010) stands out in several ways. Most importantly, the author methodically builds a case for gold by analyzing five drivers of potential price appreciation. They are: the increasing likelihood of fiscal crises in major economies of the world, the return of inflation, a small allocation shift into gold by institutional funds, the rise of China, and gold’s potential return to being the dominant financial asset in the global monetary system.

In the second part of the book McGuire describes in some detail the kinds of elements that might be included in a precious metals portfolio as a subset of an overall portfolio—stocks, ETFs, physical metals. He explains how to buy coins, including rare coins. All in all, a good practical guide for the investor.

Here are a couple of points that struck me as worth sharing.

McGuire argues that gold can be viewed as the “youngest major investment asset class” because “it is only since the early 1970s that it started being broadly perceived as an investment.” Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system in 1971, gold was money; currencies were “receipts that represented and were exchangeable for hard money.” Therefore it makes no sense to evaluate gold as an investment prior to the 1970s. As McGuire writes, (more…)

Marc Faber: Euro Oversold, If S&P Above 1150 Could See 20% Correction

  
Analysis, Education, US Market, Video
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Market: “I’m not so sure that we’ll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don’t think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside.  I think if we make a new high then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don’t forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn’t going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January.”

Currencies:  Euro: “Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you’ve read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there’s nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don’t think there is much good about the Euro either…”

US Dollar: “When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that they’ll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don’t forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro.  Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong”.

Asset Class Right Now:  “Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we’ll have to see further.  In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we’ll get more inflation in due course”.

Dear Traders ,Just see ..What I had forecasted/Written about S&P 500 on 19th ,28th Jan’10 and on 3rd Feb’10

Technically Yours

Warren Buffett not lured by gold

  
Analysis, Education
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Warren BuffetEverybody is bullish on gold these days. You even have outfits like ‘Cash For Gold’ peddling their trades at your local mall. But historically, gold has never been a great long term investment.

While the love for gold can take this commodity to $3,000, be sure to get off the train before the top. Because once it goes down, it stays down for decades.

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): A gold boom is on and despite the ‘bubble talk’ on gold, every investor worth the name is running after the shining metal. From Jim Rogers to John Paulson, most investors or investing analysts have argued that gold is the best investment bet against rising inflation and declining US dollar value. They all are waiting for a gold bull run that will go past $2000 per ounce in 2010.

But Warren Buffett, the world’s richest investor and billionaire businessman, has not yet fallen for gold. His ideas on gold and why he is not interested obsessed with investing in the shining yellow metal should be an eye opener for all those who are running after gold.

Here are some reasons why gold is not luring Warren Buffett, and why there are better, erudite and lasting investing options than gold.

”Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” Warren Buffett. (more…)

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