The sources say that most OPEC members agree on the need to cut oil output further and that they are considering to have a meeting on 14-15 February now. Just one to keep in mind as such a move may provide some relief to oil prices in the near-term.
It appears that Barkindo has shot down rumours of the OPEC+ meeting potentially being postponed to June, with the headlines also saying that none of the OPEC+ members had asked for a different time for the meeting.
The closed session meeting is still taking place but as ever the case, the decision is already being leaked out. In any case, the 500k bpd additional cut here is what has been anticipated over the past two days.
Says that OPEC+ is discussing to deepen the current set of output cuts by at least 0.4 mil bpd until June next year as Saudi Arabia is keen to surprise the market to the upside before the Saudi Aramco IPO.
Brent crude has been looking slightly cheaper on the cut in demand forecast and the 108.30/50 level is still the level that needs to be broken for a push up.
1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn’t want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof.
